So The Sunbelt Declines in Value, And Cleveland Is Cool Again

The housing map just redrew itself, and the early signals are hiding in plain sight. We dig into real-time, spending-based migration data that shows a clear turn: several Sunbelt magnets are shifting to net outbound while Midwest and select Northeast cities pull in new residents. This isn’t about trendiness or last cycle’s headlines—it’s about affordability, supply, and how many people are actually moving right now.

We break down why move rates are down roughly a third from their peak and what that means for markets that relied on a constant inflow of buyers. Expect a nuanced price picture: national home prices have slipped for the first time in two years, but the declines concentrate in parts of the South and Mountain West. Meanwhile, Indianapolis, Columbus, and even Cleveland are gaining ground as payment-to-income ratios stay within reach and inventory remains manageable. We compare Atlanta’s rapid run-up and rising supply to Chicago’s tighter market, showing how overshoot risk turns into seller pressure when demand cools.

There’s also a twist where few expected it: segments of downtown San Francisco are stabilizing as AI-driven wealth returns, inventory tightens, and high-end demand reappears. The takeaway is simple and powerful—housing is local, capital seeks opportunity, and affordability is destiny. Sellers in softening markets need surgical pricing and fast adjustments to avoid stale listings. Buyers should anchor decisions on payment ratios, supply velocity, and durable local demand instead of hype. If you want to make a smart move in a noisy market, follow the data, not the narrative.

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Chapters

• 0:33 A Major Housing Shift
• 0:50 Sunbelt Momentum Reverses
• 1:20 Why This Data Is Different
• 2:19 Price And Inventory Diverge
• 3:47 San Francisco’s Surprise Stabilization
• 4:12 Practical Moves For Buyers And Sellers
• 4:48 Get A Local Deep Dive

Transcript

SPEAKER_00: 0:17

Hello everyone, Rowena Patton here at Real Estate News Radio, bringing you real estate news for my 14th year on the air. Today I want to talk about a major housing shift that every homeowner, buyer, and seller should be paying attention to as we head into 26. Bank of America has released new internal migration data and it signals something we have not seen in years. A real change in where people are moving and just as importantly, where they are no longer moving. For much of the pandemic, the story was simple. People poured into the Sunbelt. Texas, the Carolinas, Arizona. Prices surged on the assumption that this migration would continue indefinitely. That assumption is now breaking. According to Bank of America's spending-based migration data, several cities that were once magnets for growth are now losing population. Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Houston, Atlanta. All showing net outbound movement. At the same time, something unexpected is happening. People are moving back to the Midwest and parts of the Northeast. Indianapolis now ranks at the top for inbound migration. Columbus is close behind. Cleveland is back on the list. Cities that were once overlooked are now attracting people again. This is not about trendiness. It is about affordability and stability. What makes this data especially important is how it is gathered. Bank of America does not rely on census data that lags by a year or more. They track where people are actually spending money. That gives us a near, real-time view of where people are living right now. There is another layer to this story. Fewer Americans are moving at all. Interstate and Intermetro moves are down roughly 35% from their peak. When fewer people move, the markets that depended heavily on constant inbound demand feel the impact first. And we are already seeing that in home prices. Nationally, home prices have turned negative for the first time in two years. Inventory is rising. Buyer demand is thinning. But this is not happening evenly across the country. In much of the South and Mountain West, prices are already slipping. In parts of the Midwest and Northeast, prices are holding steady or even rising modestly. The reason comes down to affordability. In many Sunbelt markets, buyers now need 40% or more of their income just to afford a mortgage, including taxes and insurance. In states like Ohio and Indiana, that number is closer to 29%. Once the affordability advantage disappears, migration slows and prices lose support. Let me give you a clear comparison. Atlanta experienced over 40% price growth in five years. Inventory there is now at record levels. Chicago, by contrast, still has inventory far below pre-pandemic norms. Supply matters. Migration matters. Markets that did not overheat have less distance to fall. There is also an important curveball in this story. Downtown San Francisco, one of the weakest housing markets during the pandemic, is stabilizing. AI-driven wealth is flowing back into the city. Inventory is tight. Buyer demand is returning at the high end. That does not mean every market rebounds at the same time. It does mean capital moves toward opportunity. Not yesterday's headlines. Housing has always been local. So what does this mean for you? If you are selling in a market with rising inventory and outbound migration, pricing correctly matters more than ever. Overpricing does not just delay a sale. It can force price reductions later. If you are buying, resilience matters more than hype. Affordability, supply, and long-term demand matter far more than what was popular last cycle. We are not seeing a national crash. We are seeing a regional reset, and those shifts tend to reward people who pay attention early, calmly, and with good data.

SPEAKER_01: 4:32

If you would like a deep dive into your zip code or neighborhood anywhere in the USA, reach out 247 at 828-333-4483. That's 828 333 4483.

SPEAKER_00: 4:49

This has been Rowena Patton with the Real Estate News Radio Show.

SPEAKER_01: 4:53

Find all the episodes and share it with your friends at realest newsradio.com. That's realestate newsradio.com. See you on the radio next week.