Real Estate News Radio with Rowena Patton

Real Estate Affordability Crisis: The Worst Housing Bubble Ever?

• Rowena Patton

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The gap between what Americans earn and what homes cost has reached alarming levels, creating what may be the worst housing bubble in history. Unlike previous market disruptions driven by speculation or loose lending, today's crisis stems from a fundamental affordability problem that's reaching breaking point in communities nationwide.

Diving into the ReVenture app's revealing metrics, we explore how downtown Asheville now requires an income of $152,000 to afford a median-priced home while the area's median household income remains around $53,000. This creates a staggering value-to-income ratio of 11:1 – higher than even California's state average of 8:1. The traditional guideline that housing should cost no more than 30% of gross income has become mathematically impossible for many Americans, especially in desirable areas where housing costs have skyrocketed while wages remained relatively stagnant.

This affordability crisis is now triggering market corrections, with home values dropping in 27 states. Florida leads with a monthly decline of 0.55%, potentially a 6.5% annual drop if the trend continues. Following the classic Clément Juglar economic cycle of 7-11 years, we may be entering a 3-5 year correction period where some areas could see cumulative declines of 15-20%. A survey of 1,700 homebuyers reveals 70% cite high prices, not interest rates, as their reason for delaying purchases.

The national landscape presents sharp contrasts in affordability. West Virginia tops the affordability list at 2.8 times median income, while California requires 8 times income for a median-priced home. For those considering selling in the next few years, particularly in areas that have maintained strong values so far, waiting for "the perfect time" might mean missing the current plateau before further declines. This isn't panic time – it's correction time, a natural rebalancing as markets adjust to economic realities.

Ready to discuss what these trends mean for your specific situation? Whether buying, selling, or simply planning ahead, call us at 828-333-4483 for personalized insight into your local market dynamics and strategic options.

Speaker 1:

Good morning. It's Rowena Patton on the Real Estate News Radio Show and this is the last Real Estate News Radio Show to air on WNC 570. So as they've made cuts at the station, they wanted me to record all of them and I so enjoy doing it live with you. For the last 13 years on Saturday mornings, however, the show is continuing as it has for many years on realestatenewsradiocom. That's realestatenewsradiocom. I will take off the link that says click to listen live on there and it will be on the podcast. And the podcast has been going for gosh many, many years and more of you track listening to the podcast than on live radios these days. I guess it's just how things change, which is probably why they're making cuts and putting the money into the kind of things that you're tuning into and tuning into the car and that kind of thing. So, love you all. It's been an amazing ride for 13 years and it isn't stopping. Realestatenewsradiocom and, of course, if you are selling a home or buying a home, give us a call Anywhere in the country. We can help you. We've got an amazing network around the country 828-333-4483. 828-333-4483.

Speaker 1:

A lot of people are listing their homes right now, probably for obvious reason, but, if you haven't heard, there is a bit of a shift in the real estate market.

Speaker 1:

So I want to take a minute to introduce Nick Gurley, who is the CEO of ReVenture and that's one of the great resources in real estate data around the country. I use his resource, which gives me at least 30 data points on real estate all around the country, and it means I can dive into any zip code and have 30 data points on it of all kinds of different things. So let's listen to Nick just for a minute. On affordability, so he believes we're in the worst housing bubble ever, primarily due to the fact that houses have gone up so much and salaries have not kept up. So let's listen to how he outlines what these figures mean before I dive into them for you in Western North Carolina and Western North Carolina, if you're listening, around the country, is a pretty good bow weather for what's going on. Ok, nick, tell us about salary to afford a house. What do we mean by that?

Speaker 2:

Salary needed to afford a house tells you how much money you need to make to afford to buy a house in the different states, metros, counties and zip codes across America. This is a great metric for helping you understand where you can afford to buy based on how much you make, and it's calculated by taking what the typical monthly mortgage payment is for a homebuyer in today's market and dividing it by 30%, based on the convention of not wanting to spend more than 30% of your gross income on your home ownership costs. And what's great about this data is you can actually open up any zip code in America and see how the salary to afford a house compares to the area's median income. Historically, if you see these two lines close together, it means the housing market is fairly balanced, while, conversely, if you see the salary to afford a house surge up above the local median income, that could be the sign of a bubble.

Speaker 1:

Oof. Thank you, nick. That was a lot. If you would like any screenshots of comparing areas, you are more than welcome. Just give us a call at 828-333-4483. This is Rowena Patton on the Real Estate News Radio Show 83. This is Rowena Patton on the Real Estate News Radio Show and it is our last Real Estate News Radio Show that is going to be aired on WNC 570. And I wish all my local colleagues at WNC 570, there's a few of you left still I so hope you have a wonderful time and it's been great knowing you for the last 13 years as we've been airing over there.

Speaker 1:

We've also been shifting across to our podcast, starting about five years ago six years ago maybe, gosh, I've lost track. There's a lot of podcasts for you to view there. We do lots of additional information at realestatenewsradiocom. If you've been thinking about following the podcast, now is the time. Realestatenewsradiocom, I'm not going away, I'm not going anywhere, still selling lots of houses, and we're selling them all around the country. Now we can help you wherever you're listening. So realestatenewsradiocom and go and follow the podcast. Anywhere you listen to a podcast. Look forward to helping you.

Speaker 1:

So let's do a deep dive into incomes. We were just talking about salary to afford a house, and it's quite interesting when you look around Western North Carolina. So, for example, in Weaverville we're at 100, and this is the salary to afford a median priced house. So in Weaverville I'm just going to round up and round down, so I'm not reading lots of figures $124,000. That's vastly above the average household income, as we all probably know right. So actually I'm pulling into that. The average median household income in that zip code, 28787, is $77,677. However, we're looking at the income that you need to buy a median size house. I mean, we all know this right innately, that salaries haven't kept pace with the price of houses and that's why we're in this big bubble. So right now we're at $125,000 to afford the medium priced house, except the average household income is $78,000. You see the problem there. That's $26,000 or so or so thousand dollars. Delta. That's a lot. It's about half the income needed again to be able to afford a median size house. Obviously, that's a problem when we go to. So we just did 28787, that's Weaverville, north of Asheville, for those of you who don't live in the area 28804. So that encompasses north Asheville, and then we've got 28801, which is downtown.

Speaker 1:

28804, 160,000. It's nearly 161,000 to afford. This is taking into account, as Nick just told you, the fact that you don't want to go over 30%. Now, obviously, a lot of people are going over that 30% to be able to afford a house, which means a lot more of your income is gobbled up, or what do families choose to do, or what do people choose to do who, maybe you're a server and earning $40,000 or $50,000 a year? What are you supposed to do? Of course you can rent.

Speaker 1:

Now, if we look at Marshall, it's $93,000. That's still kind of high. If we look at Fletcher, it's 116,000. I'm trying to find a lower one for you. Hendersonville so if we go to southwest Hendersonville, like Fruitland area, 95,000. So it's dropping a bit. It's still kind of high. If we look in Asheville proper, we're at 152,000. To keep it below that 30%, 109,000 in 2.8. So, candler, wait so go west. 2.8715, 109,000.

Speaker 1:

Like I say, you can always give us a call 828-333-4483. I can do this for anywhere in the country. I'm going to do California next and maybe we'll do Colorado too, because those ones are always so shocking. Where are we here? 28726, a little tiny pocket here, east Flat Rock, 76,000. So there we are. There's not much of a delta between the average household income is 58 and you need 76. So you can go up a little bit on your 30% and actually be able to afford a house in East Flat Rock. People are going to go to the more affordable areas. I want to go over to Black Mountain over here and just give you Black Mountain In Black Mountain that is East beautiful area east of Asheville $125,000 to afford a house. It's just I'm laughing but it's not funny guys.

Speaker 1:

People can't afford to buy a house. Median household income $71,598. So basically $72,000, but the median price with the mortgage payments and everything else, you have to be earning $125,000,. But the median price with the mortgage payments and everything else, you have to be earning $125,000. How is people supposed to buy a house? So that is why Nick Gurley, the CEO of ReVenture, is talking about the fact that we're in the worst housing bubble ever, not just since 2006, because affordability is not there, If you think about it.

Speaker 1:

So in 2007, when I started in real estate, salaries were maybe 10% less. Maybe maybe they were 90%. We could look that up. I'm sure that they were five or 10% lower than they are now. Well, guess what when you look at the average price of a house, you're not getting much of a house below five hundred thousand dollars. In ashram it was 176 000 in 2006. That's two and a half, three times the amount. It just doesn't make any sense, right? Because how can that pocket of people afford to live there? Of course you know we hear this conversation going on all the time, but I think when you look at actual salaries needed to afford the medium-priced house, it gets real.

Speaker 1:

Let's take a look at California. This one always surprises people because there are actually affordable. Well, it depends on what you think of as affordable, I guess areas of California. So first of all, I want to look at it as a broad brush across California. That's bringing in the homes that are more in the valley or, you know not, on the coast as much. So the salary to afford a house? Of course this is a broad brush across California. I understand there are lots of differences and lots of, just like there are everywhere else in the country.

Speaker 1:

The salary on average to afford a house in california you ready for it? 205, so 206 000 when you round it up. Who earns 206 000? Of course some people do, but here's the problem. It's not the question who earns? 206 000? It's the median price of the medium household income. The median household income is higher than much of the rest of the states but it's still only $99,000. So you've got a household median income and that's all household earners in the household $99,000, that's a lot right. But the median income needed to buy that median priced house is 205,000. It's over twice. So how does anybody afford a home? So you're starting to see here why he's saying we're in this humongous housing bubble. So before I dive into these in California, I want to return to Nick again, who so eloquently outlines the value to home ratio now and what that means, and we're going to do a deep dive in some just funny numbers in California and then we'll bring it back to Western North Carolina on the on the same basis.

Speaker 2:

So go for it, nick value to income ratio is a calculation. I developed a re-venture app that compares the typical home price in an area according to Zillow versus a median household income according to the US Census Bureau, with the resulting ratio giving you a sense of how big a bubble your housing market is in the. The more the value-to-income ratio is above the long-term average, the greater the likelihood of a bubble. Conversely, if the value-to-income ratio goes below the long-term average, that could mean the housing market is undervalued.

Speaker 1:

All right, this is kind of like funny money, funny numbers, but they're not very funny at all. We're going to do Los Angeles, long Beach, anaheim, that whole area. We have a value to income ratio of 10.2 back in 2005. And then it dropped to 7.06, below the normal line that Nick was just talking about there, and just stayed below the normal line and then took a peak up to 10.79 in around the 2023 area and then currently in 2025, 10.33. So I mean, what does that mean? It means the median household income in that area is $95,000. $95,000. The home value is 980, median house value is $983,000. So how does somebody on $96,000 afford a $983,000 home? Obviously you don't. That's a very high. It's over 10 times, in other words, the income. That's a really good one, important one to look at Doesn't necessarily mean prices are going down, although in that area, in that same area, if you're remotely interested, we can definitely go into that. If we look at home sales, we're seeing those numbers track down the home growth. We're seeing a home growth in terms of number of sales days on market 46. That's not terrible. We might like that here. So all kinds of things going on out there. Let's bring it back to North Carolina and Western North Carolina specifically to see what's going on here and again.

Speaker 1:

If you've just tuned in 828-333-4483. This is Rowena Patton on the Real Estate News Radio. You can go realestatenewsradiocom for the podcast and to see all of the previous shows on there. We have all kinds of topics Are we in a bubble? Is the housing market about to crash? What to do if you see a flattening market? Is there what to do when you're getting multiple offers, how to navigate around that All kinds of great information for home sellers and home buyers too. Give us a call. We can take snapshots for you for anywhere in the country 828-333-4483. And, of course, you can invest in the ReVenture app and go look it up yourself if you want this great resource. It really is quite an amazing resource that Nick Gurley has put together.

Speaker 1:

Okay, so if you ask the average person in the street, they would say that California is going to have a number way higher than ours. So we just looked at California with a 10.4 rate, right? So 10.4 in the Los Angeles area. So obviously, in Western North Carolina, the house value is 11 times the median household income, which is 52,914. That is, it's clearly nuts, right? You've got to spend 11 times your income. Back in the old days it used to be twice or three times the income and, by the way, you can still find that in the Midwest. There are a lot of areas in the country where you can find it to be much less, but Asheville 11 times.

Speaker 1:

So let's go north for a second 28804,. Killian Mountain, woodfin, all that northern area 7.6 times. So we've gone from 11 to 7.6 times your income. We go West Asheville 6.8. So we've got 6.8 times your income. So let's make sure the income's around the same there 28806,. They don't have the income on there, but we know it's somewhere. Oh, they actually do. Median household income is 62,000. So just a little bit more than downtown Asheville, but you know, negligible. The home value they're working on is 423, 6.82, so seven times. But still for hot West Asheville where so many people want to move to, I'm shocked 6.8 times in 28806, the income. So in other words, let's go to Biltmore Forest 6.5 times. It's even less 28803.

Speaker 1:

So we can look into this. When you're looking to buy a house, what does it look like in terms of the median household income, or what do you earn, and where can we find you homes here or anywhere in the country. We want what's right for you. You know we'll do a deep dive into the middle of the country where, remember, we're talking about nearly seven times your income to buy a house in 28803 um, which is the Biltmore Forest area. Most people would have thought Biltmore Forest was more than downtown Asheville. So then we have 28805, which is west east Asheville on the way to Black Mountain 6.9. Then if we look at the Swannanoa area, five times. So no wonder so many people are moving to Swannanoa, although that got so hard hit in the hurricane in Helene when that came through last year. Black Mountain is 6.8, so seven times. We're hovering all around Western North Carolina between five and seven times, unless you go downtown Asheville, in which case we're at 11 times, which is the same amount as the heavy areas of California. That's just scary, guys, right, it doesn't make any sense.

Speaker 1:

Now if we go down, I'm trying to find you some small ones 2-8-7-4-2, which is kind of not a whole lot going on down there. I mean sorry for anybody that lives there. I don't mean anything going on, I just meant in terms of it's very mountainous and you've got a lot less properties. Five times your income Mills River, six times your income. So if you just if you go just south of Fox River, so Mountain Home, that whole area, that's kind of let me get this right so southeast of Mills River, 5.3. So about five times your income there if I round it right. So not so bad on that.

Speaker 1:

If we look in Canton Canton's another one. Again, there are reasons for that that local agents you know if you're moving to the area you might not know anything about Canton. Nothing wrong with Canton at all. Canton's also once you get there people just need to expect to see the old mill property and everything that went on with that. So you know, take a look around and make sure it suits you, because Canton you only need four and a half times the income, the median household income there.

Speaker 1:

Because a lot of people move to Canton because you could afford more house. The median house value 300,000. So a lot of people move to Canton, right, because the house value is lower and they're able to buy a house and the median household income that, probably commuting back into Asheville, is 62,000. So they're pulling up the average household income because they're probably commuting. That's what happens when an area becomes very unaffordable People move out. We all know that. That's just common sense, right? That's what we call a blinding glimpse of the obvious. Let's have a look at Mars Hill up here. That might be another one where it's a bit more affordable. So still at six times the income, which is 71,000. You know, and that changes over time, obviously, but you know, depending on where we're at, it dropped in 2022 to 372,000 as a sorry 54,000 as the median household income, but that was probably post-COVID would be my guess. We had a big peak there in a lot of areas.

Speaker 1:

So I want you, I want to talk just for a minute. I'm not telling everybody that they should move beautiful, from beautiful western north carolina, because, let's be honest, guys, the reason you live in an area is because you love an area. That's why we live here, that's why it's so desirable and that's why it's so expensive. It's all about supply and demand. So desirable and that's why it's so expensive. It's all about supply and demand. So the more people that want to live in an area, the higher the prices are going to be because more people are moving in. Does that make sense? It's all it is.

Speaker 1:

And then, of course, natural disasters happen and we had Helene. That just was so devastating for so many parts of Western North Carolina, and Chimney Rock actually made it onto the national news this week, with the mayor talking about the awful things that happened. And you know, some people are just choosing not to rebuild and you can't blame them. Of course, the Asheville area is very resilient. They come from English, scottish, irish stock back in the days and well, my, my, it's very interesting to look at because so when people run off to the mountains mountains, which is basically what a bunch of us celtics did we run off to hide in the mountains then you can't hide too much anymore because it's all been built up, of course, but all those years ago then, um, you get a very resilient people. A lot of the celtics are known for that anyway, and if there's any irish and scots and and english british people or wasn't british back in the day, I guess listening then you know what I'm talking about.

Speaker 1:

Now, of course, I've been here for 30 years next year. Can you believe that? Oh my gosh, 30 years. I have been an American and I'm proud to be an American. I think there's a song in there somewhere. Don't worry, I won't start singing to you today, don't forget, if you've just tuned in, this is Rowena Patton on the Real Estate News Radio show and you can go to realestatenewsradiocom. Realestatenewsradiocom If you happen to be listening in your car. On WNC 570, this is the last week that is going out on the airwaves at 10 o'clock on a Saturday morning.

Speaker 1:

After 13 years, however, so many of you have gone across in droves to the podcast and yes, I don't care if you're 80 years old, you still love listening to podcasts. Don't listen to all these young whippersnappers. They're like, hey, you're too old to do that. No, you're not Realestatenewsradiocom. Find the podcast there. Look at all the old great subjects on real estate and choose what you love. Joe Shively, I'll give him a shout out. So he came on for three episodes and one of them.

Speaker 1:

And podcasts operate a little differently, right, because you can go through all those old titles in so many ways. That's why talk radio is being taken over by podcasts. If you think about even the talk radio these days okay, we're talking about Fox News, obviously that is number one in everything. So even those talk shows have their own podcasts, right, and we all tune into the podcast, why? Well, in a lot of ways, we can tune in whenever we want to. My english came in there and I said tune in. Did you notice that ch? That's how we spell, tune in and not really it's just the way we say it.

Speaker 1:

So, um, a lot of people are listening to podcasts because there's a lady in denver a couple of weeks ago, for example, that called me and asked for help listing her house in denver, colorado, and we have agents all around the country so we can do that and she tuned in on a night shift and she said I'm so grateful to you. I talked to her on the phone. She said I'm so grateful you keep me company during my night shift and you've done that for years. So it was so lovely to hear that. If you're listening around the country or Western North Carolina or anywhere locally, I can help you.

Speaker 1:

I've done 3,500 plus sales here. I stopped counting a while ago. I've helped a lot of families move. I have lots of programs the Love it or Leave it guarantee, whereby if you don't love it, we'll sell it free for a while and then give you a big discount for 10 years. So if you've worked with me in the past, often you listen to the radio show you'll get a discount when you sell it with us, should you decide to sell.

Speaker 1:

We don't want you to sell, obviously, but should you decide to sell, or if you want to remodel your house, we've got a great list of contractors. We're building that all around the country now because of the network of agents, so basically anywhere. We've got a great list of contractors, we will send them to you. You don't pay anything for it. We'll have the contractors call you.

Speaker 1:

You know how hard it is trying to get a contractor on the phone. Sorry if you're a contractor, but you know you're all busy so we can help with that because we've got lists and certainly locally, what I do is I go out to my list of great contractors and I say, hey, you know, I've got this client in Leicester, north Carolina or wherever you are, and they would like to do XYZ and they'd like an estimate in the next three days. If you can accommodate this, please call Clara at, you know, 828, whatever the number is, and you'll get two or three calls, whereas you've been trying probably for six months to get somebody to come out and see you. So definitely take advantage of that. Wherever you're at, if you need a remodel, let's shift over to looking at some affordable areas and then we're going to talk about, if you're thinking of selling your house, what it means. So this figure is going on right now and I don't need to get worried about the biggest housing bubble ever. It's just different. There are ways you can navigate this as a seller or a buyer.

Speaker 1:

Before we get into that in the next segment, I want to talk for a moment about where you can afford to live in the country. Don't forget, this is Rowena Patton, realestatenewsradiocom. Live in the country. Don't forget, this is Rowena Patton, realestatenewsradiocom. Realestatenewsradiocom. Please write it down if you're listening. At 10 o'clock on Saturday morning, may 31st, and it's the 13 year anniversary of going out on WNC.

Speaker 1:

But the show has a much bigger life than that. More of you are listening on the podcast now, realestatenewsradiocom, because you can listen at. You know life has changed. You can listen at your convenience. You can take the podcast with you in the car, you can listen at home, you can listen on your computer. You can even listen on your Roku or whatever streaming device you have on your TV. Yes, really. So there's lots of ways for you to listen. You can listen on Amazon. Did you know that it's available on Amazon. You can go to amazoncom, look up the Real Estate News Radio show with Rowena Patton. Make sure you put my name in there. The podcast will come up on Amazon. So anywhere you can access Amazon. I know the husbands are rolling their eyes at the wives right now because they all know how to access Amazon. Oh, I can't use this computer but suddenly we're on Amazon and we've got it all going on. But you can find the podcast on Amazon. We're on. Anywhere you like to listen to podcasts. You can find it Real Estate News radio show with Rowena Patton.

Speaker 1:

Okay, two segments left. We're going to talk about where can you afford to live according to the index by Nick Gurley, and we're going to look at the middle of the country, which is very interesting. So here we go. I think the amazing CEO, nick Gurley, says it says it best, and he's the CEO of an app called ReVenture and you can look up this video if you want to see all the pictures, or I can send you screenshots of them and you can look it up on YouTube and it's called Home Values Are Now Dropping in 27 States 27 states, including ours, by the way, in North Carolina, if you're listening in North Carolina.

Speaker 1:

I also want to pause for a minute here and say that I've been following Nick Gurley for a long time now, the CEO of ReVenture. He's one of the companies that all of the top news stations go to to get this data and he doesn't tend to be bullish about price drops. And he doesn't tend to be bullish about price drops. In fact, his app and all the data on his app he is forecasting less of a price drop than Zillow is forecasting, if that gives you any kind of insight into what's going on here. So I've done a deep dive through it and looked at various aspects that came out of that and kind of summarized it for you. So let's do a dive and don't worry, I haven't forgotten about looking at the affordable areas in the center of the country. Now, if you've been feeling like something's shifting, you're not wrong. So Nick Gurley, my friend, the CEO of ReVenture, recently broke this down in a YouTube video titled Home Values Are Now Dropping in 27 States. Now, if you feel like something's shifting, you're not wrong. Nick Gurley, the CEO of Reventure, recently broke this down in a YouTube video titled Home Values Now Dropping in 27 States. Look it up on YouTube if you'd like to see the full video and if you want all the graphs and visuals. Here's the summary of what I took away from it.

Speaker 1:

Right now we're seeing what can only be called a housing recession in much of the country, with home values falling in more than half of the states as of April, that's 27 states. Normally spring, spring is when the market picks up, especially here in Western North Carolina and much of the company, it's the spring selling market. This year, we're seeing quite the opposite. Prices are flat or sliding and it's catching people off guard. So what's driving the downturn? Of course we've just covered this in some of the previous segments. Driving the downturn Of course we've just covered this in some of the previous segments Mainly buyers are backing off. Mortgage rates are hovering around 7% and, let's face it, home prices have been out of reach for a lot of folks. Even if someone can get approved, they're looking at the numbers and saying no thanks. So let's talk about the states getting hit the hardest.

Speaker 1:

According to the data from Zillow and the ReVenture app, florida saw the sharpest drop 0.55% just in April. So just over half a percent. That doesn't sound like much, but if that pace keeps up. That's a 6.5% annual drop. And I just want to talk about Clermont-Jugla here. We can't do the last show on WNC 570. Remember realestatenewsradiocom? We've been podcasting for five or six years and we're going to continue on there, like we always have.

Speaker 1:

So, clément Juglar, 1860, economic cycle seven to 11 years. And you know, obviously, when we're dropping in an economic cycle that does have an effect. So we don't expect so if you've got a six and a half percent annual drop in one year, we're looking at what happens in three and a half to five and a half years. If the span is seven to 11 years which is how pretty, true, sometimes it's longer, sometimes it's shorter obviously then statistically at the bottom and you know there's no perfect, um, a crystal ball on this, but you've got to work with something. So let's look at three and a half to five and a half years being the bottom, right? So should it go on for three years, you're looking at over 20 percent in terms of the drop. We we went down over 30% last time and of course everybody's saying, oh, it's not going to be like last time, I get it. And there's lots of areas that won't go down if the pace keeps up like Florida, right. So Florida's at that 6.5. And you times that by three and you're at around 20%. It's not just Florida and you're at around 20%. It's not just Florida, colorado, dc, california.

Speaker 1:

Many parts of the southeast and west are seeing similar declines. Here in western North Carolina we're bumping along the top little increases, some drops. We're seeing a lot of price drops. I know many of you have been listening to the previous shows where I talk about price cuts. Price cuts month after month after month which in Western North Carolina it's been about 10 months now of price drops higher. There's always price drops. It's like unemployment there's always unemployment. There's always foreclosure, right, so there's always a baseline. The difference is, with the price cuts that we've seen happening in most of the country, other than some spots in the Midwest and Northeast, the price cuts are higher than they have been the year earlier. That's what we're watching.

Speaker 1:

So, think about it, when those price cuts come to roost, in other words, when they finally sell, they drop it. And a lot of sellers aren't getting aggressive enough when they need to sell their home, when they finally do sell in the fall or early winter, especially as, think about it, the spring market is through much of the country and if you have a spring market, you also have a winter market when things really slow down. So around August and September, the ones that are having price cuts now are going to sell. That means they're going to sell lower, and those lower comparables are what drive the price down. I hope that makes sense.

Speaker 1:

So, looking at price cuts and again I've got data points for every single zip code everywhere in the country where I look at price cuts what's going on? We also have a full market value cash offer everywhere in the country now. So we have to look at that because we need to know whether it's dropping. That's not going to help you if we buy it now and then you know you get up to 70% on your first check and then we list it. Of course, it becomes a certified pre-owned home. It sells better, it sells some more, it sells faster. However, if the prices are dropping, you need to know that. So we need to get our facts together when we're looking at that. I wish we could make it magic. We can't, even with AI, trust me. So here's the thing it's not just about the price corrections coming or the rates the interest rates that are a problem, it's affordability. That's the real issue.

Speaker 1:

According to Nick Gurley, his wonderful app called ReVenture did a recent survey of 1,700 homebuyers and this showed that that's a lot, by the way, a survey of 1,700 people. You look at the national polls you'll show usually they're using a lot lower numbers than that. So that's a big aggregated number of people to talk to. So the survey showed that 70% said home prices were the reason they were sitting on the sidelines. And these are home buyers, not interest rates, not the economy. Of course you know that all plays in as well. Just good old sticker shock. And for those wondering if we still have a housing shortage, not anymore. In most areas inventory's growing fast. In fact, we now have more homes on the market than at any point in the last five years.

Speaker 1:

So sellers who were holding back you know a lot of you procrastinate. I've been there myself. I was left in a home when my husband left and I just stuck it out for five years for some unknown reason. I wasn't ready and I really wanted a sale, but just the trauma of thinking about selling and clearing out the house and many of you are in that situation and a lot of it is stuff and things where you don't want to clear out the house. I know what that feels like. However, at some point you've been holding back and you want to put it on and now you're seeing the numbers and you're like, oh my gosh. So sellers who were holding back are finally listing and it's shifting the dynamic. It's all about supply and demand again.

Speaker 1:

Don't get it twisted, though. It's not happening equally everywhere. So Florida, for example, has 23% more inventory than before the pandemic. I love that he quotes before the pandemic, because inventory people buying, people selling really shifted for obvious reasons when we had COVID and we weren't even sure whether we were supposed to go in and show houses and people were scared to have people in the house because of the pandemic. So in New York, inventory is still 45% below pre-pandemic levels and that's helping to hold prices up.

Speaker 1:

So what's ahead? According to the ReVenture app, we're looking at about a half a percent national decline over the next 12 months. But talk about a broad brush, right? It's different in all areas. It's even different, you know, block to block and zip code to zip code, never mind looking at national decline. Zillow is even more pessimistic, interestingly calling for a 1.9% drop, but again, it all depends on location.

Speaker 1:

Some areas, especially in the Midwest and Northwest, might even see some growth, just not as fast, most likely, than as others have seen, while others like Arizona, utah, colorado, texas and Florida may see further declines and quite honestly I think that it's the canary in the coal mine for the Midwest and the Northeast. If you're in those areas and you're thinking about selling in the next couple of years, you may want to get out now at the top because you're not seeing generally massive increases at this point. I've been saying this here in Western North Carolina now you'll know for two years, like if you want to sell it, get it out now. Yes, you might have lost out on a 1% increase, but you probably would have got that increase had you moved somewhere else anyway. So it's not all about the drops and the increases and whatever mortgage rate you've got.

Speaker 1:

We move to a place because we want to be there. We move into senior living because it's time we right size, because it's time we're in our 50s, 60s and 70s to get rid of all that stuff and things and realize the kids aren't coming back for the holidays anymore and we've got a four or five bedroom house. It just becomes time. And if you're in your 50s and 60s and 70s and 80s and 90s sometimes I help people even older than that, believe it or not Do you want to wait out the seven to 11 years, statistically, before we hit the next high? So if you'd like to do a deep dive into your area, we can go over it together. You can pay for the ReVenture app yourself. It's a wonderful app. If you're, you know, in an industry, or you can afford it, or you want to do a deep dive on these figures, it's a wonderful app and just great resource. Or we can go over it together on Zoom, if you're not local, or you just want to take a look at where you're at, or right here on my laptop. If you are local, just give me a call anytime, 828-333-4483. That line is open 24-7. Let the receptionist know you're looking for a deep dive on the figures for your home and I'll get back to you as soon as I can to set up a time Bottom line.

Speaker 1:

This isn't panic time, it's correction time. It's natural. It's normal. All of those of you who are not 19 have seen this before. And those of you who are 19,. Ask your parents and your grandparents, they will tell you what's been happening on this bumpy road of real estate that we all wish that we could time right. So we've been through this wild ride of record prices and now the market is doing what markets do it's adjusting, and if affordability returns, so will buyers. And also buyers are moving out to areas where it's more affordable, whether that be the midwest or out 30 minutes, and then, um, you know, uh, commuting into the downtowns. That's that's what's happening in the ashfall area.

Speaker 1:

You heard the figures about the fact that you have to be 11 times your income to afford to live in Asheville proper. That drops a little bit as you go further out. The more further out you go, the more it drops, Because traditionally people haven't wanted to drive for 30 minutes to commute. But now, with the advent, I can hear you going. Yeah, a lot of people work from home. Now, with the advent of working from home, for the mobile workers, that becomes easier, especially if you're still relatively close to a highway. Maybe you drive for a living. So there's lots of strategies around this. It's not the time to panic.

Speaker 1:

Stick with us here on the Real Estate News Radio and, of course, although if you're listening on WNC, write it down realestatenewsradiocom, realestatenewsradiocom or look up the Real Estate News Radio Show with Rowena Patton. Anywhere you listen to podcasts, you can find Rowena Patton Real Estate News Radio on Amazon. Amazon does podcasts as well. Who knew? And we'll continue to track what's happening, what it means for you, whether you're buying, selling or just trying to make sense of it all We'd love to have you on the show on the podcast 828-333-4483. If you've got something to offer to people who are selling or buying homes, or if you're a real estate agent anywhere, we'd love to have you on so you can promote yourself and your area and just give the real truth about what's going on in your market.

Speaker 1:

Okay, so I promised you a deep dive I haven't forgotten into where is it most affordable? Let's see if any of these surprise you. So I'll tell you now. North Carolina is midway, at 2.8. Now, of course, there are lots of areas in North Carolina. So it's 2.8 times the median household income to buy the median priced house. In other words, if you're let's say you earn $100,000 and the average price house is $300,000, that would be a score of three. Hope that makes sense. So North Carolina is 2.8. We're substantially higher than that in Western North Carolina, or I do the figures we're over 11 times the median income in downtown Asheville and then the rest of Western North Carolina in my market area is around five to eight times the five to eight instead of 2.8, that tells you something, right? Times the household income. West Virginia is number one 2.8 times the income to buy the medium priced house. Iowa is two, three times Kansas 3.2, illinois 3.3.

Speaker 1:

Again, you can call me if you want this list 828-333-4483. If you're on social media, just look up Rowena Patton and ping me. You know Facebook, message me or something like that me. You know facebook, message me or something like that. And uh, I will give you the numbers because obviously we're looking at states here and your area is much more important than the states. I just gave you my example where we're between 5 and 11 times median income, whereas north carolina we're in north carolina in north carolina as a whole, it's 2.8 times. So it depends on where you're at. More than happy to share this with you. Rowena Patton, all-star Powerhouse brokered by EXP 828-333-8255. 44.83.

Speaker 1:

Okay, so we got down to Ohio at 3.3. Number six Oklahoma 3.3. Number seven Mississippi at 3.3. Number eight Indiana at 3.4. Louisiana 3.4. I'll do it. Let's see if I can do it like a disclaimer now. North Dakota 3.5. Nebraska 3.5. Michigan 3.5. Arkansas 3.5. Kentucky 3.5. Pennsylvania 3.6. Missouri 3.6. Alabama 3.6. Minnesota 3.9. Texas 3.9. Alaska 4.1. Wisconsin 4.2. South Dakota 4.2. Maryland 4.2. Georgia 4.3. Virginia 4.3. South Carolina 4.3. Go South Carolina, just south of us. Of course I can get to South Carolina in 30 minutes if you're interested. Connecticut 4.4. North Carolina 4.5. Vermont 4.7.

Speaker 1:

Let's scoot the other way around so you don't have to listen to everywhere. Let's do the most expensive in the country California eight, eight times the average household income. It might be medium income, we need to check on that one, but it's the household income Eight times the household income to the median priced home. Montana 6.3 times the income. Massachusetts 6.3. Washington 6.2. Idaho these are the most expensive states to live in Broadbush. Of course you can still find areas in these states that are less expensive, right? So Oregon 6.1. Colorado comes in at number seven, at 5.8. 5.8 in New York, 5.7 in Nevada, 5.5 in Utah. Utah comes in at number 10. Deanna, if you're listening, just letting you know. And of course, if you go out, it's like anywhere else. If you go out from the cities you'll find something more affordable. So you know what I'm going to do. The rest, because we're almost there. Rhode Island 5.5, because you'll move in from somewhere, even if you're listening.

Speaker 1:

In Western North Carolina, district of Columbia 5.5. New Jersey 5.4. Maine 5.4. Arizona 5.4. Florida 5.1. New Hampshire but that changes depending where you're at. In Florida, obviously, new Hampshire 4.9. Wyoming 4.8. New Mexico 4.8. Vermont 4.7. Tennessee 4.7. Delaware 4.7. We're all the way back to North Carolina at number 23, 4.5.

Speaker 1:

So we're right in the middle, basically, which is interesting to note, I think. But you can really see that back in the day it might have been two or three times the income. Now, if you look in those states that are still affordable, west Virginia is 2.8. It was probably 1.5 back in the day times your income, right? So West Virginia is still 2.8 times your income. Iowa is three times your income, whereas we've got areas of California coming in at 10 times your income and, sadly, asheville downtown is 11 times your income, although we can find you everywhere around Western North Carolina, maybe five times your income. So, right in the middle there, that would put us in the top 10.

Speaker 1:

So it's not quite as terrible as it sounds sometimes, which people like to put a spin on these things. You know me, I've never liked to put a spin on these things. I like to tell it as it is Rowena Patton Real Estate News Radio Show. If you're listening on WNC 570, we love you all. I love you so much. You've all been part of my lives. You're one of my audiences on the radio and especially in the days when radio used to get a lot more call-ins and we did the trivia prizes. Those were the good old days and I know there's a hardcore of you listening. Now I hear it all the time, but I have so many more listeners on the podcast and then you choose when to listen.

Speaker 1:

Realestatenewsradiocom and I can't wait to see you all on there and continue this, because you'll know I'm on a mission. I'm on a mission to give you the real facts about real estate and what it looks like for you, you, your household, your family, what you're trying to do and you can ask any of my previous clients. We've got over 220 five-star reviews in the main. We've got 4.9 overall on Google. I don't trust Google reviews or any other reviews if they're all five, because someone's going to get ticked off right. If you've got Google reviews. They're all five and you've got 10 people who give you the reviews. That's 10 friends probably that are giving them reviews. Just saying so, someone's going to get ticked off at some point, just being realistic there. So we've got the reviews, I'm over 3,500 sales and now we're adding sales all around the country as well.

Speaker 1:

Would love to help you with these strategies. Any of my previous clients will tell you. I'll say to you you know what? I don't want you moving out of this house because your income just dropped. What do you do? Let me see if I can help you.

Speaker 1:

My background's marketing. I've done this before. I helped a husband and wife back in the day. She was in a supplement sales. She didn't know how to set it up with funnels and all the stuff on the internet. I helped her with that and he was in construction. So I found him a great job in construction and they got to keep the house. I didn't earn anything and they are what's called clients for life, because that's what I do. It's just how I'm wired. If I weren't wired that way, I'd probably be a billionaire by now, and I'm not. And that's okay, because I'm going to die knowing I did the right thing. Hopefully not anytime soon.

Speaker 1:

So come on over to realestatenewsradiocom and listen to the podcast. I can't wait to see you there, or give me a call 828-333-4483. And I apologize if you're listening to this in six months time, because that's what happens with the podcast. You can dive into all kinds of episodes. Why don't we take a look at what's on there and the kind of episodes that you can choose from? So if you're listening right now and you want some of these titles, let's go for it. Like you're tired of hearing me saying at this point, realestatenewsradiocom, that's where you can find all of these titles. So let's go through the most popular episodes. This was one is incredible.

Speaker 1:

Coming in at number one guys, this is a four-year-old podcast. Joe shively, who's also been on the show. I said you're coming in at number four and he said how come I'm not number one? Because you're only seven months old and people keep downloading them. The number one the moving home nightmare or best ever show. 537, moving the mountains with Trinity Movers. That was on March 20th 2021. So about four years old, amazing, right. The next one. Coming in at number two navigating the real estate market trends, tips and innovative strategies. The next one. This one's wow. Coming in at number three get a full market cash offer on your home show 671. You don't have to write all these down, you can just go to realestatenewsradiocom, click on podcast Building dreams Joe Shively on the adventures and insights of a legendary builder.

Speaker 1:

I love that one. That comes in at number four. Tips on Buying a Second Home comes in at number five. Number six All About 1031 Tax Deferred Exchanges. That's an older show as well.

Speaker 1:

Here's a three-year-old show. Coming in at number seven Is the Real Estate Market Crashing in Asheville, nc. So go look at that one and see what I was saying three years ago. It's amazing. Healthy benefits of hemp that was always a popular one too. Asheville NC airports Tina Kinsley shares the airport growth. That's a really popular one.

Speaker 1:

Next day was the Father's Day show. Isn't that funny Three years ago. The art of mastering short-term rental investments Buying and selling land in Western North Carolina Thinking about a short-term rental. Mastering the art of painless dent removal there a completely different one from a local business For sale by owner. Show. Probate Death dying and deviled egg show.

Speaker 1:

Oh, my, multiple offers on homes. Yes, that one's four years old Back when we were getting multiple offers Too funny, how old are you? It getting multiple offers Too funny, how old are you? It matters when you sell your home. When banks say no, they say yes, scam or worthwhile. Buying now is stupid. Home valuation with Abby and Heather Culture change show All kinds of things on here HOAs, the good, the bad and the ugly. So you know. This really helps you understand and even though some of them were timely in terms of what's going on in the market, nonetheless they're still very interesting, I think, to listen to from a perspective. So if you're looking at stuff and things in your house, there's a whole one about that, and you can find all of these shows at realestatenewsradiocom.

Speaker 1:

So for those of you listening on the podcast, I love you dearly. I love the fact that the numbers are going up every week. Please share it with your friends. It's just wonderful, realestatenewsradiocom. For those of you listening on WANC 570 AM, you hold a special place in my heart. You've been listening to me for 13 years. No time to stop heart. You've been listening to me for 13 years, no time to stop Realestatenewsradiocom, and I so look forward to seeing you all over on the podcast. Or just give me a call, do it the old fashioned way 828-333-4483.

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