Real Estate News Radio with Rowena Patton

Buyers Market - What This Means For Home Sellers

• Rowena Patton

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The housing market is undergoing a seismic shift that most mainstream media outlets aren't addressing with the clarity you deserve. I've been diving deep into the numbers across zip codes nationwide, and the evidence is compelling – we're witnessing inventory levels approaching those seen during the previous market bottom.

In small towns like Black Mountain NC - which could be small town America anywhere - available homes have increased from just 17 in 2022 to 85 today – nearly matching the 94 homes available at the bottom of the previous market correction. Even more telling, nearly 40% of sellers are implementing price cuts compared to 32.5% during the previous downturn. This isn't just happening in quiet mountain communities; metropolitan areas are experiencing even more dramatic inventory surges. 

For sellers, this shift demands immediate strategy adjustments. The days of aspirational pricing have ended – buyers now have options and negotiating power they haven't possessed in years. If you're considering listing, you need to either price aggressively from the start or consider alternatives like my Certified Pre-Owned approach, which eliminates the typical 3% repair concessions that plague conventional sales.

Buyers, especially younger ones, should recognize this moment of opportunity. Many in their 20s and 30s have resigned themselves to never owning homes, but this market correction creates potential entry points. Consider a 20-year mortgage instead of the standard 30-year option – yes, payments increase slightly, but you could own your home outright by age 46, creating a wealth-building foundation most Americans never achieve.

The current 6-7% interest rates aren't the crisis many portray them to be – they represent historical norms. Smart buyers are negotiating seller concessions to buy down these rates rather than waiting indefinitely for decreases that may never materialize. Remember, you can always refinance later if rates drop significantly.

This market evolution follows patterns economist Clément Juglar identified over 160 years ago – predictable 7-11 year economic cycles. Understanding these fundamentals allows you to make strategic decisions rather than emotional reactions. Whether buying or selling, your ten-year plan matters more than ever in navigating this transitional market successfully.

Ready to discuss your specific situation? Call me at 828-333 4483 24/7 - or visit CashCPO.com to explore alternatives to traditional listings. Let's cut through the noise and find your path forward in this shifting real estate landscape.

Speaker 1:

This is the Plain English Real Estate Show with your host, rowena Patton, a show that focuses on the real estate market in terms you can easily understand. Call Rowena now. The number is 240-9962 or 1-800-570-9962. Now here's the English girl in the mountains, the agent that I would trust, rowena Patton.

Speaker 2:

Good morning and welcome to the show. Oh, this is a funny start to the day. I've had a little hiatus here where I've been away building the listing royalty app and I'm back in the station and I'm sitting here and I thought I was going to start talking. I'm like where's the microphone? Randy has taken a little step back from. He's still doing some work, but I think he stopped working seven days a week and we have Thomas here. Good morning Thomas, hi, good morning everyone. Thomas is now producing. He hails from Georgia just for a little while, but we won't hold that against him.

Speaker 3:

And now he's back here and your whole family's a native right, Thomas, he's back here and your whole family's a native right Thomas Yep yep Family's from, like, the Valdez area. I produce the afternoon show on WWNC. So yeah, I've been doing that for a little bit since Aline, and having a good time.

Speaker 2:

Welcome to Thomas. So today we're going to be talking about nerddom, common sense, numbers, how to get numbers that allow you to make intelligent conversations. So you'll know me for a while now. This is year 13 of Saturday morning with you. So you all started listening to me when you were 20. So you're all almost middle-aged by now, right, it's just so important. I was thinking about how everything is moving now and before we start. For those of you who don't know me, maybe you've just tuned in today or maybe you're listening to our podcast. After the event. It's broadcast live and then podcast. Maybe you don't know. When I was young, everybody said, oh, you've got an old and and you're too young to know these things. Or I was walking into boardrooms in my early 20s.

Speaker 2:

I was running a business then and I'm still running a business now, hopefully, but I was running a business of three different businesses when I was 23 and I'd walk into a boardroom and they'd go. I just had to deal with the elephant in the room from a very early age. It was always well, well, you're too young for this. It's kind of like what they're saying to the Doge kids now. You know lots of young men in their, most of them in their early 20s. I think one of them's even a teenager still, and it's oh, they're too young to be knowing or doing about this. The fact is, it's nothing to do with age. I've taught and trained and coached for a very long time, both in my management consultancy role across all kinds of industries and now, of course, in real estate. And if I had a dollar for every time I heard somebody say, oh, I'm too old for this, or I can't use a spreadsheet because I'm too old, it's not true. So finally, I'm old enough to prove that.

Speaker 2:

I was a Google beta tester back in the day and I broke the MLS almost here when I first got on, because you just got to think a little differently in anything you're doing. You know those are the businesses that pop up, that people who find a way to solve a problem, and I call it a BGO. It's usually a BGO is a blinding glimpse of the obvious, right. So what is it that you're thinking of that you just can't believe that somebody hasn't designed something to solve this issue. I'll give you a good example of that. You've all seen the guy. I don't remember his name, but he's the ceo. It's obviously not that good an ad, right? He's the c? Ceo and founder of the company that makes frames. I think it's called keepsakes. Obviously it's a decent ad because I'm remembering keepsakes. Keepsakes is an app that you can go into the app, you click on the frame. Actually, I've never been in the app so I shouldn't be saying this, but I'm guessing that he's made it very simple. So you click on the frame and you just choose a photo out of your phone and, of course, now our entire lives are driven by our phones. Most of our photos are taken on the phones, and phones can take a darn good picture. This is how new all of this is.

Speaker 2:

When I started real estate back in 2007, back in the old days, we didn't have cell phones that could take decent pictures. I guess it was amazing that we had cell phones that could take pictures at all. We definitely didn't have video on our phones. Can you believe that? At least the majority of us did not? There's probably one of you out there. Feel free to call in if you would like to. It's 828 240 9962. If you're calling in from mars, it's 800 570 9962. If you had a cell phone way back then that had video on it, I bought one of the. So then a whole new industry was born.

Speaker 2:

There were these little um, uh, gosh, I don't even know how to describe them. They're about the size of a pager and they took great video and they developed these things and they were. Everybody had them. Certainly all the realtors had them to make videos and pictures. This is only it's not long ago. It's less than 20 years ago, gosh, is it? Look, that's amazing. 2007, 2008, so not even 20 years ago. But there were these little boxes and they lasted for about two years because so they were internet capable. That was the big claim to fame that they were. It's so funny talking about this now. So, um, or, you didn't have to have a wire to get that video and the pictures up into the air, up into the big world wide web because it was internet capable. So, oh my gosh, this was amazing.

Speaker 2:

We used to have to take our cameras out as realtors if we took our own photos. Of course. You know a lot of us used professional photographers as well. I used to run a photographic company so, um, I generally take, take my own photos, um, so we had all the hassle, blads and all the wonderful cameras back in the day, so I would take my regular old camera out have to, and I had a newer camera then and I would put a wire in it, a cable in it, of course, plug it in. And of course, we didn't have USB-C then, which is now universal, unless you're an iPhone user. Sorry, iphone people, but the new ones have to have it. It was made a law. Actually it was meant to be 2021. We were all using USB-C. If you don't know what that is, that's that big, not semi-circular. What do we call it? Oval?

Speaker 3:

Oval with round corners. Basically, I'd go with oval there.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, whereas the USB-A, of course, is the flat one with the big chunky thing that goes down underneath. So USB-C now is universal. Apple is just iPhones. I tell you, I work on a Mac, it's okay, I'm not. You know, I have an app that works on iPhones, we're all good. However, the iPhone is always last to catch up because they're proprietary. Anything that's proprietary and not competing generally is going to be last to catch up. I just poked at iPhone this morning. Watch for those lawsuits coming. You can tell I'm live again, can't you? So you know. Just think differently about how things are happening and how you're going to capture that market.

Speaker 2:

I wonder if the people who made those little boxes that took the pictures and the video and their big claim to fame was the fact that they were internet capable and they did last for about three years. They were 70 or 80 dollars. They weren't inexpensive. I wonder if people made a lot of money on those companies or they went broke because so much investment goes into a company up front. But the keepsake guy how obvious is that? It's not new, right, but it's taking a business. The I'm talking about the guy who makes the keepsake app. We should probably look up his name. But whatever, it doesn't matter, it's the whole concept we're talking about here. So you, you click on any hundreds of frames and he claims the frames are handmade. I'm sure they are, because he says that in the ad and he shows a picture of him. The first picture he shows is kind of cute him at his wedding, right, that's such an obvious idea, because what have you got on your phones? All your photos, in the main, all your photos.

Speaker 2:

Here's another little tip for those of you out there I can see one of you turning to the other and rolling your eyes about that big box of photos you have up in the attic and you don't know what to do with them. And your kids like oh I want the photos of me or I don't want the photo. Please don't throw those photos away, mom. And these are 50 year old children at this point that don't don't have space in their house to put the photos. So what do we do with all this stuff? Did you know that if you've got a half decent camera now, they will scan your pictures? All you got to do now? It takes a while. Obviously, you can pay companies to do this as well. There's plenty of companies to do it. Um, thank so thomas has stepped in.

Speaker 2:

Here is adam weiss, keepsake frames founder adam weiss, that's exactly it, and he looks he's got young children. I don't know how old he is, he's probably, like, I don't know, mid 30s or something. But what a good kudos to him, because maybe he's got some backers. I don't know the whole story, but to take a simple idea like that and then put it into an app and make it easier easy for all of us to frame our photos of course everybody that works at the companies here that frame photos michael's is michael still around here, places like that, and the photo framers aren't very happy with me. This morning it's so nice to be able to go into a store and feel the frame and touch it and see how big it really is. It's hard to get a feel for that, anything that's material based, I think. Oh yeah, what do you think, thomas? I mean you're at least 93, right?

Speaker 3:

Yeah, at least 93. I'm 26.

Speaker 2:

Okay, Thomas is 26. What do you think, Thomas?

Speaker 3:

I think it depends what you're shopping for, especially with something like clothes. Or for my mom's Mother's Day, I'm getting her some bedding stuff.

Speaker 2:

Oh, give a shout out to your mom for tomorrow.

Speaker 3:

Yeah, you have to go in person to get things like that because you don't want to get something, and then online or anything like that, and then it just comes out, not how you're expecting From the mouth of a 26-year-old.

Speaker 2:

I love this. They say actually that people below 30 are much more conservative with a small C and sensible, and some common sense is coming in and you're almost a little bit old-fashioned. Do you think there's any truth in that?

Speaker 3:

I think for me personally there is. I don't want to speak to my whole generation and say that that's the case, but yeah, yeah, to an extent I think that holds true.

Speaker 2:

Do you want to give a shout-out to your mum this morning? Are you allowed to say her name on?

Speaker 3:

there yeah, shout-out to Lillian Modak.

Speaker 2:

Lillian, happy Mother's Day, deck. Uh, lillian, happy mother's day. And happy mother's day to all the moms out there. And of course we know it's not just a day, it's all year long. I'll give a shout out to myself because I have a new little puppy, penny. Oh, yeah sophie's just getting used to penny. Everybody thinks she's a dalmatian. She's a mini dachshund with dalmatian coloring oh, that's cute though it's, it's, she's adorable.

Speaker 2:

how old did you say? She is now nine weeks old. I nearly failed Mommy Dom there. I didn't know how old she was. So, yeah, she's adorable. So thank you for that, thomas, and thank you to moms everywhere, and thank you to dads everywhere as well. I always like to give a shout-out to dads, because there's a lot of single dads out there, or dads that are raising kids on their own, or dads that have 50% of the custody and are raising kids as well, and we don't seem to remember that. And a dad's role is very, very important. That's pretty obvious, right? But what are we talking about today? Common sense, intelligent decisions and nerddom. So I want to jump a little bit into nerddom. Let's talk for a second about certified pre-owned. So when I got into real estate.

Speaker 2:

I'm like what the heck is this? What is this crazy industry? I was crying every third day and I'm not a crier. It was honestly awful. I did a lot of business. I sold. I didn't even know I was selling a lot of homes. I sold a lot of homes and this is 2007, right before the market crashed.

Speaker 2:

It crashed within six months of me getting into real estate, which I didn't really know what was going on at that point, which is probably a good thing, and it's not something to be scared of. A change in the economy is always an opportunity for someone, right? So if you're selling right now, I would say, definitely get out there or hold on to your home for 10 years. We can go a bit more into that. If you'd like me to explain to you on air, I'd be more than happy to. We can talk about Clément Jougla. You can put me in the hot seat and make me talk about it 828-240-9962. Get on air today or give a shout out to your moms. We've already given a shout out to Lillian. Oh, we can't tell her what kind of bedding you got, can we probably?

Speaker 3:

Oh no, Is it a secret?

Speaker 2:

No, we're gonna do the picking out together for that I'm not gonna get something that she might not want. Gosh, I was gonna say, like imagine picking out bedding for your mom.

Speaker 3:

That's almost scary yeah, the previous one she had gotten online and it wasn't the color she was quite looking for, so I wanted to kind of the color, the fabric, everything right and she's big about matching it to the paint and doing all like she designed her own house and did all that. Oh, whereabouts. Don't give me the address. Yeah, I'm not going to go that far Over in Black Mountain.

Speaker 2:

Oh cool, I love Black Mountain. I started off my life here in Black Mountain, in fact. So let's talk about and, if you're listening, nationwide. What I want you to know is most of the real estate figures that I'm giving you today hold true, we're a good bellwether for the rest of the country, unless you're in the Northeast. So if okay, let's talk about New Jersey, because New Jersey is just weird. There, ash Davis, if you're listening, I said it's just weird.

Speaker 2:

No, the proximity to New York almost always means I mean anybody trying to afford to live in New York. These days it's nigh on impossible. I can see a lot of you out there listening going I want to live in New York anyway. And that tax now, when you need to drive in New York you've got to pay seven or eight dollars, might be even more than that now who knows to actually drive in the city? So a lot of people live in New Jersey at the end of a railway station, somewhere you can jump on and actually get in quickly, because to buy a house there, you're talking about half or a quarter of the price and especially if you've got a family, those communities tend to go further out, just like anywhere when you have a family. But therefore New Jersey is still rocking and rolling.

Speaker 2:

But here's the clue Success leaves clues. It is not rocking and rolling as much as it was two years ago, when it was multiple offers for every deal. Multiple offers were coming in Connecticut, new Hampshire, everywhere up there in the Northeast is fairly flat, or still seeing a stable market, shall we say. So things are selling within 30 days. The rest of us, oh my goodness.

Speaker 2:

I just came back from South Florida, for example. So South Florida, in some spots we're seeing up to an 18% drop. I'll say that again 18% in prices. Now that's terrible, right, the sky is falling. Well, if you bought a year ago and you need to sell, maybe, but that's not the position most people are in. What it really means is that for buyers, finally you're able to come in and actually afford something. I'll give you another hot spot as well. So Tampa is really having a tough time of it as well. Naples is having a tough time of it. A lot of Florida is having a tough time of it.

Speaker 2:

Another area is Texas, and again I'm going for a whole state here and, like Thomas said, I'm not broad brushing a whole generation. He said I'm not going to talk about my whole generation that way. It is funny, thomas, that you say that, because people often say to me you don't seem like an English person or you know, oh, you must know, my friend David, the fact is that just because I've got an English accent, first of all, I've been here for 29 years. But secondly, I'm not like an average. I'm not putting myself above or below or anything else, but I'm not like an average english people person, because most english people live in england and they probably live in the same place they grew up in, just like here the majority of of the mountains are, I was gonna say, the majority of natives. Most natives would say that's not the case at all. New people are coming in, but many people who grew up here stay here. It's much more normal than people that move about. So thank you, thomas, for not broad brushing your whole generation. To be like you, there's always standouts. That's what the marketers like to do, because they like to market a product to people that are in Thomas' generation or the boomers. The boomers are the biggest marketing ploy right now.

Speaker 2:

Oh, you know what the biggest one is, and talking about new products and nerdy innovation here for a second is I'm going to forget. Oh, it's called Particle. There's a new I don't know if it's a new company or not. I'm sure it's backed by one of the big cosmetic houses. Talk about blinding glimpse of the obvious.

Speaker 2:

So it's called particle and it's you've all seen it. It's the particle face cream. Here it is. It's for men. So how is it that for the longest time met particle, for mencom, it's called. How is it for the longest time? Particleformencom it's called. How is it? For the longest time and they didn't pay me to say this we didn't have a line of cosmetics for men.

Speaker 2:

Now, men aren't going to be bothered, and I'm broad brushing here. This is how marketers do it to demographics. Men aren't going to be bothered using six different bottles, like a silly women do where we pay, you know, even if you go to a drugstore, it's 20 or 30 dollars for the serum and then you got to put this on top of that, and then that on top of that, and then the night creams, and then the day creams that have the sunscreen in them and everything else. No, for men it's particle. I think it's six in one or something like that, and you just use one and the ad is a good-looking, probably late 40s man.

Speaker 2:

And then he says things do you notice that men who look like this? And then they show a man with age spots and looking like he had a rough night last night Well, it is Saturday morning, so that could be the case and then he says and you could look like this, and of course it's all down to particle. What a blinding glimpse of the obvious. I'm sure this thing is flying off the shelves and it's not inexpensive. I don't remember the exact cost, it's about 50 bucks, something like that, and that's with a discount. But it is the six in one or five in one. I'll probably get sued now because I'm not saying exactly how many in one it is, but you know it gets rid of your age spots and your ring.

Speaker 2:

It doesn't really get rid of them. And your wrinkle doesn't really get rid of them, but you know it makes them look less so. I guess we're saying but what a blinding glimpse of the obvious. I wish I had the backing to come up with that. Thomas is looking at now. You don't need that yet, thomas.

Speaker 3:

Oh no, not yet Got to look. Prepare for the future, you know.

Speaker 2:

Of course, all those 20-year-old and poor women. When they hit 30, it's like oh, it's all downhill from here. I'm starting to get wrinkles again. If I had a dollar for every 30 year old woman that I know, that's getting botox. Oh, I'm having it to prevent the wrinkles coming in. Or the best one is oh, I get migraines, so I'm having. That's why I'm having all this botox. Keep telling yourself that telling yourself that yeah too, thomas.

Speaker 2:

like every other man out there, do you prefer a woman with no makeup, a little bit of makeup for enhancement or a lot of makeup? I?

Speaker 3:

And you might prefer men Putting me in an awkward position here, you know.

Speaker 2:

You can make it men as well. Men, women, whatever you're into Like. Do you prefer a very coiffed or a medium coiffed? You know a little bit of making an effort or no effort at all, I think a little bit of making an effort For makeup.

Speaker 3:

I think it's better if it just accentuates your natural beauty instead of trying to make something that isn't there.

Speaker 2:

His name is Thomas, you can look him up Too funny. I think that's how most people feel, quite honestly.

Speaker 3:

Yeah.

Speaker 2:

And nobody wants to leap out of bed in the morning and you know, get your mascara on or whatever it is Spend an hour or so. Yeah, oh my gosh, I had girls, I remember, at college, girls at the big. Well, I'm not an 80s college girl, but I'm a 90s college girl, but I guess the big hair was still in, or some of the girls I was going to college with still had the big hair, or they had the curly hair that they had to blow dry, I guess, and they'd spend an hour in the morning before college.

Speaker 2:

I can believe it.

Speaker 3:

I've got pretty long hair and tried to do stuff like that when it was longer. It's just not worth it. I'm not enough of a morning person to go through that whole routine.

Speaker 2:

Thomas, by the way, has got beautifully beautiful curls. Gosh, I wish I'd. I've got all the curls underneath that I have to straighten because all the tops straight.

Speaker 2:

So yeah, but those are my personal problems, never mind. Let's look at black mountain where, where um thomas's family are from 28711 gorgeous little town has a special spot in my heart because I was there for so many years. It really is. It gets voted one of the prettiest towns. Well, it gets voted the prettiest town in the USA for good reason. It bothers everybody that that happens, quite honestly, apart from the people who are just on tourism, of course, because it is a beautiful little town and people get worried about so many tourists coming in, quite naturally. So you know that if this is happening in the prettiest little town in the country and again, you can call in if you'd like, 828-240-9962. If you're calling in from Mars, 800-570-9962. And check out your zip code wherever you are in the USA. I got a call last week from a lady in Denver that wants to list a house and I have the best agent ever working for her over there. It doesn't matter where you are, I can give you these data points. I have 30 different data points for every zip code in the country. Because of the national program that I'm running, I have to have these.

Speaker 2:

So let's have a look at Black Mountain without further ado. Like, yeah, we've been waiting already, get on with it. So back in 2019 at the pretty much at the bottom. So uh, this so six years ago. How old are you 26?

Speaker 3:

yeah 26.

Speaker 2:

Okay, so this you. You were the ripe old age of 20 at that point, couldn't even drink. Couldn't even drink. Yeah, I bet you were sneaking one.

Speaker 3:

No comment.

Speaker 2:

This is where Thomas tells that he breaks the law on air. So 2019, I always look at you know what's for sale. I've got some key ones in here, which are price cuts. It looks at the price cut percentage now and over the years, back to 2017, and I'll tell you why that's important in a minute. So back in 2019, at the bottom, we had 94 homes for sale. The next year, as things started to improve in in 2020 and we had a run up, basically between 2020 and really maybe 2023, it started to flatten out. So 2020, we had 79 for sale. We had 94 for sale back in 2019, down to 79. So this is year on year and it's a comparison, right, but these are straight comparisons of what's happening in a year of real estate. So then, in 2021, we know what was happening then Went down to 22 for sale People were scared to sell their houses during COVID.

Speaker 2:

In 2022, 17. So we went from 94 for sale Now this is a small town, it's 2,500 people, and then, when the summer hits, it's more like 4,000 or 5,000 people. So it's small town, usa that there is more than one stop light though, and it's also a thriving, bustling little town 17. So we went from 94 to sell in in april 2019 to 17 in 2022. That's an amazing drop, right. And then in 2023, obviously, things were recovering. However, we've all been complaining about lack of inventory and we only had 38 for sale. So still, uh, under half. And then in 2024 that rose to 52. So getting healthy again, right? 2025.

Speaker 2:

You want to know the number? Can we do a drum roll? That is 85. We're almost at the bottom of the crash amounts now. Why is that important? Basic, let's go into nerd now. I'm going to use these three themes throughout the day. Let's go into nerd and a little bit of common sense. So it's really common sense.

Speaker 2:

You all did basic economics at school supply and demand. When there's more demand, you can create more of a supply. If there is a great demand and a small supply, the prices go up. Right, because you can. If there's a big demand people want something you can afford to charge more. It's really that simple. Don't overthink this. So back at the bottom. In fact, the two years at the bottom 2018, 2019, 2020 we had 76 for sale, 94 and then 79. Those are the three years. We've now got 85 guys. It's almost the height of 2019. I could show you this in every small town all over the country.

Speaker 2:

I don't know why the economists are not talking about it. I don't know why people like Port Barber Corcoran is on saying it's the best time to buy a house. She's partially right in that, because we have a lot of price drops and I can explain it away all I want to, but you need to know what's happening with prices. If you're a buyer and you can afford to hold on, chances are next year you're going to have lower prices. However, you may have a higher interest rate.

Speaker 2:

Everybody thinks the interest rates are high right now, like six and a half. We're hovering between six and seven. That's normal, folks. This is where you got to bring the common sense in. If randy were here, the producer that worked here before thomas and he's he's not out of the farm, by the way. He's still doing some radio. He's not fully retired. So, randy, if you're listening, we love you. So if randy were here, he would tell you the story about when he um was a younger man it's not even that long ago when he had an interest rate of 16 or 17 percent, and many of you listening have yeah, many of you listening have experienced that six to seven is normal. That's a normal interest rate.

Speaker 2:

So will they go down? Maybe Not that likely. And even if they do, you can refinance at that point. Is it going to cost you a bit of money? Sure, but there's other ways to do this.

Speaker 2:

Okay, so it's pretty much a buyer's market right now, everywhere in the country apart from the Northeast what we started out with in the beginning. So, as a buyer, you can ask for the sellers to buy down your rate. Did you know that? So if they're buying down your rate, if all you're worried about is the interest rate you're paying, because we've already seen some price drops in the market, ask for a seller concession to buy down your rate. Maybe you could get a rate of 5%. Who knows, what do you want? And then you've got to think about what you pay your buyer. We'll have to do a whole show on that. How are you going to pay your buyer's agent? Because now it's all negotiable we as a listing agent this is everywhere in the country, by the way, they changed the rules. Many of us think it's hurting sellers and hurting buyers, and I would tend to agree. I. I think it's hurting sellers and hurting buyers and I would tend to agree. I'm definitely in that camp.

Speaker 2:

What happens now is that before you go into a house this is the law, guys you have to cite a buyer agency agreement. That is creating agency. It's a contract between you and the buyer's agent. It's going to say that you will pay them X percent or zero Maybe they're a volunteer agent I'm sort of being silly, but not really You're going to pay them X percent if that's not covered by the seller. So many sellers are saying now well, I was paying 6 percent more, I want to pay 3 percent now and the other 3 percent should be covered on the buyer's side.

Speaker 2:

The problem is we haven't all gotten used to the new system and what it looks like, especially sellers and buyers, because you probably haven't bought or sold a house in the last 10 years and now everything is different. However, in all of that mess that's going on, maybe you'll come out for the better in the long run. Who knows, you now can have your sellers buy down your rate and sellers if you're selling your house. I want you to think about that and think about making an offer. It's what we call a BGO, right? So we'll have that as another theme for the day.

Speaker 2:

A BGO, a blinding glimpse of the obvious, or it's just common sense? If the buyers are worried about not buying a house because of the interest rates, then buy down their interest rate. Yes, it might cost you $10,000. Do you know what the average repair recession amount is? That you give back 3%? Now, that's when you're not a certified pre-owned home. You know, I all advise you to be a CPO home. That was my blinding glimpse of the obvious and common sense and intelligent and nerddom when I first got into real estate back in 2007 and it was a nightmare and everything was crashing. I went wait a second. We sell certified pre-owned homes for substantially more and they drop out seven percent of the time. Seven percent of the time. That's outrageous, thomas, have you ever bought a house?

Speaker 2:

no do most people your age haven't. These days, they're moving back in with their parents or they're renting yeah because houses have become so unaffordable. Do most of your friends rent, or are they at home with their parents?

Speaker 3:

most of my friends have resigned themselves to the idea that they're probably never going to be able to own a home. Oh, that's terrible. Yeah, it's kind of a little sad. I don't know anybody around my age who's able to afford something. I think the only people would be someone who got lucky with like crypto or something along those lines.

Speaker 2:

Well, we need to bring your friends in one day and I want to talk to you all about buying a home in your 20s and what that looks like.

Speaker 3:

um do you?

Speaker 2:

think you can organize that and get two of your friends in that are in their 20s maybe, possibly.

Speaker 3:

I'm trying to move in with some of my friends, so, uh, bring them in.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, because you're all looking at it because real estate is something that will give you wealth forever. Oh, yeah, um, regardless of what's happening with the market and how you do that and maybe we'll just do live online how you individually could purchase a house or purchase a house together, and what that would look like. Yeah, terrors of terrors, but yes, it's a very interesting time to do it.

Speaker 2:

So back to the figures. Now. We are all the way up to for sale inventory 85. If that doesn't sound like a lot, we were 17 17 in 2022, 38 when we recovered from covid in 2023. Last year, we were 52 85. That's a massive jump, guys, and it's around the same as the peak of the great depression, or whatever we wanted to call it right last time, around 2018, 2020, at the bottom. We're almost at that level.

Speaker 2:

I'm not saying this to scare you. I'm saying it because if you are a seller, get real already. Do those price reductions. A lot of you are. I can show you that too.

Speaker 2:

So let's have a look in price cuts now. I'm going over there. I haven't even looked at this beforehand, honestly. So I'm not just, you know, choosing black mountain because I like it. I do like it's placed here in my heart, but this is a thriving. This is thriving small town, usa. We're going to do big town in a minute and see what that looks like. So here we are in. Remember, we're at the bottom here.

Speaker 2:

So 2000, uh, oh, let's look at back at 2017. So this is bumping along the bottom here. So 2000, uh, or, let's look at back at 2017. So this is bumping along the bottom, when we were in a mess and very little was selling, and, and and sellers were getting real. So back at 2017, when things were really awful, 32.5% were were doing price cuts in April. That's about a third right. So I like that number because I can remember it easily 32.5%, so about one third, we're doing price cuts. That dropped but you know it's almost not fair to use COVID in there because it dropped to 8%, 14%, 10%. That's really not normal. So I can tell you what normal is actually is 19.5%. That's the not normal. So I can tell you what normal is actually is 19.5%. That's a balanced market. So you'll have about one in five doing a price cut. Why are price cuts important? Because remember supply and demand.

Speaker 2:

Let's talk about competition. The other houses that are for sale are your competition. It doesn't matter if you're in a small town or a big town. Competition Are they better prepared than yours? Do they look better than yours? Are they in a better area than yours? Do the schools get better ratings than yours? Does it have better curb appeal? Is it better staged? Is it better painted? Does it have a quartz countertop? And yours has old granite or formica or butchers block. That's all stained and burned up. Who knows? If you're a flip house, you've probably got a butcher block in there because it's cheaper. So 32.5 at the bottom. You want to know what it is. Now we might need that drum roll again, thomas. I'm going to give thomas a minute to get his drum roll I do actually play drums, so you do I do, yeah, oh, I don't.

Speaker 3:

I can't do anything too fancy, I don't have drumsticks, but oh, he's doing the drum roll.

Speaker 2:

I hope you can all hear that. So, 32.5 at the bottom when we crashed, it's 39.2% now. Okay, now, why should you be concerned about that? If you're a seller, that's nearly 40%. I'm just rounding to make the math easier right? If 40% of your competitors are dropping their price and, by the way, we've had nine or ten months of straight price drops now I talk about this every week.

Speaker 2:

I don't say it to scare you, because there's nothing to be scared about. If you get your nerd on, if you get your common sense on, if you use your intelligence on, if you get your common sense on, if you use your intelligence right, don't be scared of it, just go. Well, wait a second. Last year, it was only 23 percent of people at this time of year were doing price cuts. Why? Because there was less inventory. Do you remember when we looked? And we looked at the amount of inventory and it was at the levels that it was when we crashed, right? So there's more inventory, supply and demand. The supply is much, much bigger now, so therefore buyers have a lot more to choose from, right? So therefore, you've got a lot of competition because there's a lot of homes for sale. Does that make sense? Does that make sense, thomas? You've never bought a house. Does that, honestly? Does that make sense? Or ask me questions if it doesn't. No, that makes sense, thomas. You've never bought a house. Honestly, does that make sense? Or ask me questions if it doesn't.

Speaker 3:

No, that makes sense to me. I mean I took economics classes in college and stuff, so I get the supply and demand thing right there.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, well, I think most people did, or at least did a little bit, at school, and you know, it's really this simple. If you think about when a hurricane is coming or some bad weather is coming, um, and you go to the grocery store, all the bread and milk is gone. And the eggs well, not the eggs right now, because they're too expensive, yeah, let's not go there. They've come down in price. Even all the eggs have gone now. So the, the milk, the, the, the, the bread, the eggs, they've all gone. Why? Because there was a big demand, because there's a storm coming now. Do we, do we want to slap those people? Yes, but that's a whole other show too. They've all gone because there was a big demand all of a sudden, and the supply couldn't keep up with it.

Speaker 2:

It's really that simple. There's a lot of houses out there right now. Therefore, there's always and and if you're sitting at home selling going, well, I don't need to move, I don't care, well, that's fine, but take your house off the market. In that case, don't go through the misery that is selling your house in a conventional sale and keep it on the market. If you, if you're just dipping your toe in and definitely don't go. Oh well, I'm just going to test it out next year. Clement juglar, 1860, french economist, set out the economic cycle. It's a long time ago, guys, that's 1860. We will be celebrating 200 years of him in 35 years here, coming up very soon, or is it 45? I don't know. Thomas can do the math, I don't know.

Speaker 3:

He did.

Speaker 2:

See, he did. He did economics, but he can't work that out. I love it, just put him on the spot there and obviously I really don't care. But it's a long time ago, is the point? And again people are out there going. Oh no, you know, house prices are going to be stable. In fact we're we're expecting that they go up. Have you noticed in the news headlines that things change all the time?

Speaker 3:

isn't it interesting, especially this year?

Speaker 2:

especially this year. Yeah, exactly, and it doesn't matter if you're talking about how there was a. You know, we had a president in place and the news wasn't really talking about the his decline, and now a lot of these people are coming out and going oh no, absolutely, we were let's try and find the clip, and they can't. Or it could be tariffs, or it could be. I mean, you name it right, it could be anything. Oh no, I didn't say that. Let's look at the Pope. Oh, there'll never be an American Pope. Suddenly we have an American Pope. I said how?

Speaker 2:

did that happen.

Speaker 3:

That's pretty wild. I was very surprised by that.

Speaker 2:

Isn't it wild, oh my gosh.

Speaker 3:

We had a bunch of people coming on the morning and afternoon news show and they were like experts and they're like we're not going to see an American Pope Ever. Yeah, probably not going to happen, it's going to be an Italian right. Yeah, or something along those lines.

Speaker 2:

They thought it was going to be Italian. So news changes all the time and people have you ever heard of spin? People spin news to fit their own criteria. Oh yeah, even though I'm in real estate, I've just got the honest burger, get a gene or something, I don't know. I just want to tell you the truth because I believe that you're intelligent enough and you've got enough common sense that when I tell you the truth and you go, oh, that's a no-brainer, you'll make the best decision. I mean, isn't that the way it should be?

Speaker 2:

I'm not going to try and spin it and say buy a house, no and no, I I will. I am the how can we girl, right? So there are people that really want to buy a house now and, thomas, you and your friends are some of them. In the next two or three years, when you get into your early 30s, let's make sure you've got a house already. Or we can figure out how you can do it now, because you know I want you to think about this you can have a mortgage for 20 years. You can have a mortgage for 30 years when you start young and you're 29, now 26. I keep getting the six and the nine mixed up for some reason.

Speaker 2:

Very similar, so 26. So if you take a 30-year mortgage, get used to this You're going to be 56 years old Now, 56 for that house being paid off is pretty cool, but here's the other truth most often you don't stay in that house, you move and you go to another house and that mortgage continues. So everybody in their 20s right now and, by the way, every other age as well I want you to think about a 20-year mortgage. In the last two houses that I've been in, that saved my shirt, because usually you only add about five to ten percent of the monthly mortgage fee. Isn't that crazy?

Speaker 2:

yeah and you pay it off a third faster. But oh my gosh, how you will be feeling that when you're 56, or if you do, I mean my gosh, 56 isn't that wild yeah you'll be a middle-aged person.

Speaker 3:

Scary thing to think about. A little bit, yeah, but yeah.

Speaker 2:

By the time you pay the house off. Now, if you do a 20-year, you'll only be 46. 46 years old, you'll own your house outright and it really is the greatest source of wealth for most people. And if you, I have what I call the shift diagram, which I'm happy to share with you all. It looks at Clemence and the seven to 11 year cycle. So I always say if you want to stay, listen the people who are dipping their toes in. If you want to stay in your house for 10 years, nothing wrong with that. Does that house work for you? Because if it does and you've got that, you know 2% interest rate or something crazy then stay in it, but have the mindset that you're going to stay in it.

Speaker 2:

The next option is move on to where you want to be. Maybe you want to right size. Maybe you're Thomas in 20 years time. So in 20 years time, thomas is 46. Let's talk about what happened to most of you who are 46 now. So when you were I'm looking at that demographic right now so when you were 22 years old, you got married. That stopped as well, hasn't it, thomas, in your friends.

Speaker 3:

Yeah, don't see too many early 20s getting married, so you're 26 years old.

Speaker 2:

How many of your friends are married? Three Out of how many friends do you think?

Speaker 3:

15 or 20. I'm also like, is that?

Speaker 2:

like 10%.

Speaker 3:

Yeah, probably maybe somewhere around there. I'm also talking about like friends from high school. I haven't seen in a couple years at this point.

Speaker 2:

But yeah, uh, not many, no One or two out of a whole group of friends, so the 46 to 56 year olds now. You got married at 22 and your your kids went to school at. You were 40 years old when your kids went to college. Is that right? 22, 32, 42 would make them 20. So they went to college 18, so you'd be 40, and then they left college when you were 42 or so. So that means, um, had you acted like the previous demographics acted and that's why everything is changing in wealth here at 46, your kids would have been out of college for four years and you would own your house and then retirement's right there, yeah, yeah, no, no.

Speaker 2:

Well, maybe not right there, but you know I'm reaching across the table, so everybody who's over 50 right now I'm reaching across the table and slapping thomas because yeah, retire. So they say 60 is the new 40 now, which is pretty funny. But um, there's lots of 60 year olds that that act like 40 year olds you know people.

Speaker 2:

We didn't even realize until a few years ago that our brains were elastic, right? So we were told by the powers that be that we just forget things. An old dog can't learn new tricks, right? There's all these phrases about it. Well, we discovered in the last 10 years only that our brains are elastic and we can't last 10 years, only that our brains are elastic and we can't. Hey guys, if we are, live, hello and we're back. We had a little technical glitch there for a moment. I am sorry about that. We were talking in our nerddom and apparently neither of us is such a nerd. Fortunately, thomas is such a nerd that he managed to get everything back up. So what were we talking about, thomas?

Speaker 3:

oh, that's the hard part right there uh, what were we talking about?

Speaker 2:

see, nobody can say, oh, we're too old to remember, we have no internet, so we don't really know whether you're hearing this or not, but if you are, then we love you anyway. And so we were talking about what the numbers were for Black Mountain. I can't see them anymore because we don't have Internet, but that's OK, and we've got a nice reverb going on. So I'm sorry everybody, I apologize.

Speaker 3:

That was me testing to make sure we're on, and I believe we should be good now.

Speaker 2:

Yay, fantastic. Good job, thomas. So we were looking at the numbers for small town America essentially and basically saying there is double and triple the amount on the market. We're back at the levels that we were in the crash. And you just have to trust me, because now we don't have internet. It's amazing what happens when we don't have technology right. Really wonderful things usually.

Speaker 2:

Fortunately, I've got a brain and I'm not relying on it and I do my research and I know what's going on with the figures because I run a national program and big city USA is actually suffering a little bit more than small town USA in almost everywhere in the country, a little bit more than small town USA in almost everywhere in the country. So again, if you just tuned in, we're talking about what's going on with market figures right now. Let me come back to what I was talking about in price cuts. So price cuts are very important to look at because why, in six months time, when all those price cuts come home to roost, you are going to have sales that will lower. What does that mean? Well, they then record with lower prices and the comparables are much lower, and then the well over half probably 60, 70, 80 in some areas where people are getting mortgages to buy the homes, the mortgages will get more and more difficult to get because the homes aren't comping. That's get more and more difficult to get because the homes aren't comping. That's exactly what you start seeing. The appraisals aren't happening.

Speaker 2:

You've got two choices at that point. The buyer can pull out, or you can reduce your price, which a lot of people do. So remember. You can go to cashcpocom. Cashcpocom skip all this listing nonsense. It's a full market value price offer. You can go right there and get an offer on your house without even thinking about listing it. Cashgpocom it works all over the country. Or we can do a conventional listing. Don't do that. Do a certified pre-owned listing. Where you get the inspection up front, it's more important than anywhere, guys. Where you get the inspection up front, it's more important than anywhere, guys. So you know, keep thinking about that and doing that. So it's very, very I'm sounding like Trump now it's very, very important, very, very big. You've got to think about doing that, because everybody goes in eyes wide open at that point, which makes a lot more sense.

Speaker 1:

See you next week on the radio, guys this has been the plain english real Real Estate Show with Rowena Patton. Visit Rowena and post your questions at RadioAshevillecom or call her at 828-210-1648.

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