Navigating Real Estate: Timing Your Move to the Mountains and Market Trends in San Antonio

Ready for a deep dive into the unpredictable world of real estate? Join us as we chat with our long-time listener and friend, Michael from San Antonio, Texas. After a decade of contemplating a move to the mountains, Michael shares his thoughts on taking the plunge amidst economic uncertainties and recent political events. Together, we explore the appeal of mountain living—from a fantastic climate and delectable food to an enticing farm-to-table lifestyle. We also tackle the big question: When is the ideal time to make such a significant move?

Our conversation shifts focus to the real estate market in San Antonio, specifically in the 78237 zip code. Using up-to-date data, we reveal how significant price cuts serve as early indicators of falling prices in the months ahead. As we look toward 2024, we discuss the implications for both buyers and sellers, emphasizing the importance of strategic timing. Whether you're buying or selling, this episode is packed with valuable insights and actionable advice to help you navigate the housing market in today's ever-changing economy. Tune in to get ahead of the curve!

Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:01

Good morning and welcome to the show.

Speaker 2: 0:05

Good morning Ro. It's Michael. I live in San Antonio, texas. As you know, I've been bugging you for a decade and you've been sharing homes in the mountains with me for that long.

Speaker 1: 0:18

Hey, no worries at all. I literally have people I've been working with since I started in real estate here 17 years ago, so please don't worry about that. It's an honor to help you.

Speaker 2: 0:30

I feel like, with what is happening in the economy, as well as what just happened with our former president, it might be time to get out and live the dream in the mountains.

Speaker 1: 0:41

Well, you know, that's one for you and your family to really make sure you're making the right decision. Only you can decide when the time is right for you. Many people are doing that, of course, and moving here to the mountains is kind of an escape, I guess. But of course, the climate here is wonderful. We have great food. There's lots of farm to table. So yeah, climate here is wonderful, we have great food, there's lots of farm to table.

Speaker 2: 1:07

So, yeah, it's a great place to live. How fast do I have to get out of here? Can you use your tool to look at the numbers for here? Thanks you, and I wouldn't work with anyone else and I so appreciate you working with me for all of this time oh, that is so sweet and it's absolutely an honor.

Speaker 1: 1:24

Like I said, okay, let me go look it up for you and we will do a deep dive. And if anybody wants these figures, by the way, give us a call at 800 570 9962 and we can dig into yours too 800 570 9962, and I'll do price drops or values or anything else. I'm going to send you the reports on these as well so that you can see them, and I can do this for any zip code. In the USA. There's 30 data points, so we're not going to cover all of those. So these are all figures from as close as we can get to most recent figures, so, for example, 2024,.

Speaker 1: 2:07

I like to start with the price cut data, why, when you see price cuts, that's what we call a leading indicator for prices falling in the coming months. This means that people are out there listed, they have the homes for sale now and a percentage of them are cutting their prices now and a percentage of them are cutting their prices. So, for example, back in 2017, 4.6 of the homes listed had a price cut in your area and I'm looking at zip code 78237 right now, san Antonio. I can literally get it down to zip code and when we look at that, goes up to 19.3. So this is, you know, coming towards COVID here and then it drops down. Then, back in 2021, we had 0% were cutting their prices and then we start to see the the incline coming here. So only 3.5% of all those listings had price cuts in 2022. 19.3%. That was a big jump last year. So one in five people who were listed last year cut their prices. However, 2024 so far, it's nearly 39% of people. So people in San Antonio. That means what does that mean? You know, 78237.

Speaker 1: 3:25

So people in San Antonio are looking at their listings and they're going. Some of them are going. We really want to sell and we're going to cut our prices. They're seeing all the other price cuts going on, both in San Antonio and around the country, and they're cutting their price so they can get sold. So price cuts are very, very important. Now you're not necessarily, if you're buying, you're not going to necessarily see those prices drop until September, october, november this year. Why? Because we have a lot of people listing now that are cutting their prices. Let's say it takes them another month or two to actually get under contract and then it takes them another month to six weeks to actually close. Once it closes at that lower price and that lower price gets recorded, that's when you'll see this severe downward pressure on pricing. There's downward pressure on pricing now because all the sellers out there see all of the other homes that are having price cuts and any of the smart agents are saying that's uh, the word for intelligent in england, by the way, not not smart mouth all of those agents that are actually looking at the what's going on in their market in san antonio and noticing all of the price drops and they're passing that on to their sellers in San Antonio and noticing all of the price drops and they're passing that on to their sellers, who may be thinking it's like a couple of years ago when there were multiple offers going on and everything else.

Speaker 1: 4:46

So let's have a look at home value. What is it saying about home value? You have a score of 22. What does that mean? A mid score is 50? So you've got 22.

Speaker 1: 4:58

So on all of the forecast pieces on there, it's looking like we've got a price going down. Now they're looking at to come up with that score. They're looking at recent depreciation days on market mortgage rates. Of course that changes for everybody. Inventory and the number of price cuts that's the way they actually calculate that, and we can do lots more for you. Home value growth year over year, that kind of thing Also. Is it overvalued? This is a fascinating one, and again they look at all kinds of different scores on there. The trajectory is actually going down for those values. And again I can, I can send you a and I will send you at the end of the show today a complete report on this and I remember, just because you're not in san antonio, I can do this for you anywhere. So give us a call. 828-333-4483. We have operators standing by ready to take your call anywhere in the country.