Navigating Raleigh's Real Estate: Emotional Journeys and Market Insights with Linda

Curious about Raleigh's real estate market? Join us as we unravel the latest trends and forecasts with Linda from Raleigh, who shares her heartfelt journey of deciding to sell her home. After her son's recent marriage and the loss of her husband, Linda contemplates moving closer to family. Together, we navigate the complexities of the 27601 zip code, dissecting essential indicators like appreciation rates, inventory levels, and days on market to provide you with a clear picture of what to expect if you're buying or selling in the area.

Get ready for an episode packed with emotional insights and practical advice. We'll break down the numbers, differentiating between a buyer's and a seller's market, and offer investor forecasts based on recent data. With a top 2% real estate agent on standby to assist Linda, you'll gain valuable knowledge that can guide your own property decisions. Whether you're a homeowner, investor, or simply interested in Raleigh's dynamic housing market, this conversation promises to equip you with the information you need to make informed choices.

Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:00

Good morning Linda. How are you doing today? Tell me about where you're at.

Speaker 2: 0:04

Hey, it's Linda. Good morning, ro. I live in Raleigh and I am wondering what that nifty tool you use says is going to happen in Raleigh. I know you do something like the forecast and price cuts, as I am thinking of selling and heading over there to be by the kiddo. He just got married and we lost his dad a year ago married and we lost his dad a year ago.

Speaker 1: 0:29

Well, first off, my love, I am so sorry I won't mention his name because you didn't, and I'm not going to mention the name of the kiddo either because you didn't Give me permission by, you know, saying whatever is out there that I can use, but I'm, you know, I'm going to keep all this very confidential. Obviously, if you don't want it live on the radio, you can just say you're calling in for a friend, 828-240-9962. Or we've got people standing by 24 7. Seriously, they're on at two o'clock in the morning, 828-333-4483. Maybe you do the night shift. 828-333-4483. Just make sure you leave an email, um. You know you can explain your situation if you want to. I'll definitely call you back, um. Or you can just say listen, I just want to report. I don't want to talk to that annoying woman. I can't stand her english accent. I just can't talk to her anymore.

Speaker 1: 1:16

Okay, I'm, we're looking at raleigh. So unfortunately, I don't have the zip code for raleigh. I do of all this time I've only got raleigh in on there because I don't know. Maybe Linda didn't want me to know exactly where she lives, maybe she thought I'd stalk her or something. I don't know. But, linda, give me a call on your actual address. Obviously, I'm not going to do that live on the show because I don't want to put it out there, because there are weird people who are stalkers out there. I am going to look at the neighborhood around Shaw University. If you're in Raleigh, you know where that is. Raleigh is about, depending on which part of Raleigh about four hours from us. I do have the top 2% agent there that I work with all the time and she is standing by waiting to take your call, linda, anywhere in Raleigh. So that's the good news there. She is amazing, amazing lady and amazing team. So I'm looking at the zip code 27601, which is Raleigh. I'm going to give you the main figures in here.

Speaker 1: 2:15

So the home price forecast is a number. I won't go into it in depth. I'm happy to do that on the phone, but 50 is the baseline, if you like. It's actually a very nice way of looking at the home price forecast because when we do it by months of inventory it's sort of confusing. Like six months in inventory is the baseline. That all sounds like real to talk to me. So when you say 50 and the baseline is 50, that tells us. Is it a buyer's market or a seller's market?

Speaker 1: 2:46

So 27601, this might surprise you the home price forecast is 40. That means, according to the home price forecast, we're expecting prices to go down. Recent appreciation is at 50, which is about average. Quite honestly, let me bring all those up and I can tell you what they're at 40 is actually. Quite honestly, let me bring all those up and I'm going to tell you what they're at 40 is actually quite low. However, in the investor forecast, it's strong right Because from an investor perspective, it's fairly safe. So when we're looking at home price forecast, it's the momentum. I don't know if you want all this detail. You probably just want the numbers. Quite honestly, it's based on fundamental stats like appreciation, inventory, price cuts and days on market. So for those the price forecast what it's doing is it's taking all those figures and looking at what's happened in the last few years.

Speaker 1: 3:35

I'll give you an example of what this looks like. So in 2017, we're at 59. In other words, a seller's market. 50 is the baseline. Once we drop below 50, it's a buyer's market. And then in 2018, we went down to 48. So that's basically balanced, just below the 50. Then in 2019, we went down to 35. Again, we're talking about that one zip code and then 2020, we bounced back and went to 54. It's kind of balanced. It's just four over the 50. So, in other words, we went into a seller's market. So 2017, seller's market 2018, basically balanced. 2019, definitely a buyer's market, just before COVID, or sometimes COVID, depending where you're at and as it was rolling out. Am I?

Speaker 2: 4:24

That's correct.

Speaker 1: 4:25

Yeah, so it was the end of 2019 was COVID? Covid has a big effect on this. So then we're at 54 for 2020. So, balanced market. Basically, it's a little bit you know, slightly a seller's market, but I wouldn't really count that One piece of data can floor it. 2021, pretty much the same thing. Oh, 2022, that's when we were getting all the multiple offers and a lot of you are still in that mindset.

Speaker 1: 4:50

74 home price forecast. It's going to go through the roof. Oh my gosh, because it was going through the roof. That was the trend. That is a massive climb. 74. Guess what? We're at 49. So technically at 49, sorry, in 2023. Now we're at 40. 40 is most definitely a buyer's market according to these figures.

Speaker 1: 5:11

And even if you don't believe the figures, look at the trend. The trend is what's very, very, very important? The rents are going through the roof. The valuations are all over the place, if we go down to that same zip code. So this is for you, linda, again, get me your actual zip code and I can help a lot more with that.

Speaker 1: 5:30

Obviously, let's go down to I want to go price cuts, because that's the one, honestly, I love to look at. Okay, so let me click on that, okay, so price cuts back in 2019 are at one in five. We're doing about one in 10 right now. So out of all the listings that are out there, it's actually more than that. We're doing. Over one in 10 has a price cut. That's a leading indicator, right, it's above the line. So that one's interesting.

Speaker 1: 6:06

Let's look on days on market and a lot of this is historic. It's where is the trend going the days on market. So that one's interesting. Let's look on days on market and a lot of this is historic. It's where is the trend going the days on market. So this is showing a vibrant market, right, and it's hard to understand because I just said the forecast is down. Well, that doesn't. That's not what's happening now. Remember the timescale we did earlier the price based on price cuts.

Speaker 1: 6:26

Now, that isn't going to come through in your market until September, october, right, because that's when the houses that are having price cuts now they're going to go under contract. It takes four or six weeks for them to close. Maybe there's issues on the inspection, something else. It closes, right, and you're not going to. If you put it on the market, you're not going to sell it tomorrow. So September, october is when those deeds get recorded, and the newest deeds that sell the newest prices that are recorded, are the ones that are going to bear. If it's like your house, those are the ones that are going to bear most weight for the appraiser and, trust me, banks. You probably know this. Banks have really tightened up. They've been tightening up for the last year or two. Banks know it's coming. The interest rates are high so that so many loan officers have lost their money, lost their jobs, so many bank branches have closed down. Go look it up. There's a leading indicator, guys. So why is that important? Because they've really tightened up. That means they're looking very, very carefully. Appraisals