Real Estate News Radio with Rowena Patton

Predicting Real Estate Price Drops: Tools, Trends, and Personal Insights

June 08, 2024 Rowena Patton
Predicting Real Estate Price Drops: Tools, Trends, and Personal Insights
Real Estate News Radio with Rowena Patton
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Real Estate News Radio with Rowena Patton
Predicting Real Estate Price Drops: Tools, Trends, and Personal Insights
Jun 08, 2024
Rowena Patton

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What if you could accurately predict future real estate price drops? This episode of the Plain English Real Estate Show is set to arm you with insights into the dynamic world of property price cuts. We kick things off by introducing a cutting-edge tool that provides detailed analysis for any zip code in the USA, debunking the myth that national statistics paint the whole picture. You'll gain access to resources for obtaining localized, detailed reports and an eye-opening look at the surge in price reductions and available inventory across the nation.

We'll then turn our attention to fascinating case studies from San Antonio's zip code 78237 and Mills River in Henderson County. By examining these specific markets, we uncover how price cuts serve as leading indicators for future market shifts, offering crucial insights for both buyers and sellers. The conversation highlights the importance of partnering with experienced real estate agents, especially when the market is this volatile. We also explore the broader national trends, noting exceptions in regions like the Northeast, and discuss the cyclical nature of real estate which impacts decision-making.

Finally, we address the personal side of real estate, particularly for those nearing retirement. Selling a home in a fluctuating market can be challenging, and convincing aging parents to move into assisted living adds another layer of complexity. Through personal anecdotes, we reveal the emotional and logistical hurdles families face and introduce our program, assistedlivingcpo.com, designed to ensure seniors receive fair market value for their homes. Tune in for practical advice, advanced tools, and heartfelt stories that provide a comprehensive understanding of today’s real estate landscape.

Show Notes Transcript Chapter Markers

Send us a Text Message.

What if you could accurately predict future real estate price drops? This episode of the Plain English Real Estate Show is set to arm you with insights into the dynamic world of property price cuts. We kick things off by introducing a cutting-edge tool that provides detailed analysis for any zip code in the USA, debunking the myth that national statistics paint the whole picture. You'll gain access to resources for obtaining localized, detailed reports and an eye-opening look at the surge in price reductions and available inventory across the nation.

We'll then turn our attention to fascinating case studies from San Antonio's zip code 78237 and Mills River in Henderson County. By examining these specific markets, we uncover how price cuts serve as leading indicators for future market shifts, offering crucial insights for both buyers and sellers. The conversation highlights the importance of partnering with experienced real estate agents, especially when the market is this volatile. We also explore the broader national trends, noting exceptions in regions like the Northeast, and discuss the cyclical nature of real estate which impacts decision-making.

Finally, we address the personal side of real estate, particularly for those nearing retirement. Selling a home in a fluctuating market can be challenging, and convincing aging parents to move into assisted living adds another layer of complexity. Through personal anecdotes, we reveal the emotional and logistical hurdles families face and introduce our program, assistedlivingcpo.com, designed to ensure seniors receive fair market value for their homes. Tune in for practical advice, advanced tools, and heartfelt stories that provide a comprehensive understanding of today’s real estate landscape.

Speaker 1:

This is the Plain English Real Estate Show with your host, rowena Patton, a show that focuses on the real estate market in terms you can easily understand. Call Rowena now. The number is 240-9962 or 1-800-570-9962. Now here's the English girl in the mountains, the agent that I would trust, rowena Patton.

Speaker 2:

Good morning, it's Row here and welcome to the show on this. Is this the best Saturday of the year so far, Randy?

Speaker 3:

Oh boy, isn't it beautiful here.

Speaker 2:

It is absolutely gorgeous out there.

Speaker 3:

Yes, a nice breeze. And temperature right now is what? 51, 57 degrees, and it's gorgeous out.

Speaker 2:

Is that really all it is? Yeah.

Speaker 3:

Wow, feels refreshing, doesn't it? And we've got more of this on the way for the next several days, I think. Yeah, nice stretch of weather we're having in the mountains, yeah isn't it?

Speaker 2:

Oh my gosh. So today we are talking about price cuts. We talked about it a little bit before. Why are price cuts so important? Because we just got the may figures in. So we got the up-to-date figures in on what is happening around the country. And you'll know I got this amazing new tool a few about a month ago actually, and I can do a deep dive into any zip code anywhere in the country. It also shows me price cuts and I can share with you. You can go to rowena pattern on facebook and find this very easily if you want to see the actual figures, because sometimes this can be a little tricky to talk about. Uh on the radio, because like, oh, what's she talking about all these numbers here? However, you can see them. Just go look up rowena pattern. There aren't too many of us on Facebook. I think there are about three of us in all of Facebook anywhere in the country that's anywhere in the world actually.

Speaker 3:

Yes, you are unique.

Speaker 2:

Yes, unicorn you know say you're the unicorn, oh my gosh. Yeah, here's my little horn. I'm on YouTube as well so you are as well. I can flick this around, randy, and show you know. On the other side, I I just realized that.

Speaker 3:

Oh, really Say hello to Randy the producer. Isn't that cool that is cool.

Speaker 2:

So, yeah, here we go. So anywhere in the country where you're at in the USA this is, I can only do zips in the USA so far. Give me a call live on the show 1-800-570-9962, 800-570-9962. If you're too nervous to call in live and you don't want to be on the show and you just want to pretend you're looking up a zip for your friend, that's okay too. You can call in on. Our lines are manned 24-7. You can leave a voicemail. You can talk to our receptionist, 828-333-4483, 828-333-4483. And your zip code and your address and just say I want a deep dive. We can do 30 points on your zip code. Of course, when we know where you're at, we can get to your house and do it for your street and give you a much more accurate idea of what it would be listed at or what the value is right now. So, of course, happy to do that as well.

Speaker 2:

You can call either of those numbers to set that up and, without further ado, let's dig in to some of those. You can also see this. Actually, if you want to look at the cash cpo site, I'm thinking about a couple of places to go, because some of you like to do it in different ways cash cpocom and um randy the. The thing always, uh, works a little oddly at the station. Here we go and then you click on blog at the top and it's the most recent blog post in there, so I have pictures in there. I have pretty much everything you need to know about price reductions. So the reason we're talking about price reductions is because we broke records this last month.

Speaker 3:

In May.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, because it's all around the country and you know, you've heard me say this before. It drives me nuts. When celebrities get on which happened a couple of weeks ago and get on the news and say house prices are going to skyrocket in the USA at the end of the year. You can never say in the USA, the USA really, it's house to house, street to street, town to town, city to city, state to state. It's all different. So you can't look at we're in Asheville, north Carolina. You can't look at we're in Asheville, north Carolina. You can't look at Asheville, north Carolina and go oh, last month, over 6% of the nation's home sellers decided to cut their asking prices. Okay, what does that mean? So that's not the case here. It's actually a lot higher than that and I've got yeah, exactly, so you know telling people that 6% of the nation's home sellers decided to cut their prices. Whoop-dee-doo, it doesn't mean anything. And the existing inventory has gone up dramatically as well.

Speaker 2:

If you want to see this, go to cash. Cpocom. It's called certified pre-owned. You'll know I've run that program since 2007. Now we have a cash version of it. Right at the top, you'll see blog. It's right next to the shop which is coming soon. Um, the blog is on there. Just click on blog on the top and it's the very first post there. There's also a video of the economic cycle. You're bored of me talking about good old. Do you remember his name, randy? Haha, randy's go she.

Speaker 2:

Clemenceau, glad you remember the year 46 1860 he set up the. He set up the economic cycle 1860. That's quite a while right heard that.

Speaker 3:

So much I know well that.

Speaker 2:

That's why I repeat it, cuz until you need that information, you're not really thinking about that information or remembering it. None of us do do. So I get it and it's just because I'm so attached to it, because I've always watched figures since I got into real estate 17 years ago. And, of course, when I got in 17 years ago, at that point things were nuts. Oh my gosh, prices were going down. Everybody thought I'd lost my mind, leaving, you know, a nice cushy career making a lot more money than I was making in real estate, and I looked at figures right from the get go. So I wanted to know what was going on and I sold twice as many houses all the way down. I basically got into real estate when we're at the point we're at now, 17 years ago. So we'd crested already and the market was starting to go down.

Speaker 2:

Seven to 11 year cycle is not rocket science and you can see that cycle. Add a video on it, cashtpocom. Just click on blog on the top. It's all on there, all the stuff I'm talking about today you can. Also there's a contact button on there where you can go ahead and ask for your particular zip code as well. So Michael called me, thinking the show was an hour earlier, because he's in a different area code and I managed to hit record on my phone, so we're going to see whether we can go over here and see whether this works. Randy, do we have the technology? Oh my gosh. Good morning and welcome to the show. Good morning.

Speaker 4:

Ro, it's Michael. I live in San Antonio, Texas. As you know. I've been bugging you for a decade and you've been sharing homes in the mountains with me for that long.

Speaker 2:

Hey, no worries at all. I literally have people I've been working with since I started in real estate here 17 years ago, so please don't worry about that. It's an honor to help you I've been working with since I started in real estate here 17 years ago, so do please don't worry about that. It's an honor to help you.

Speaker 4:

I feel like, with what is happening in the economy, as well as what just happened with our former president, it might be time to get out and live the dream in the mountains well, you know that's one for you and your family to really make sure you're making the right decision.

Speaker 2:

Only you can decide when the time is right for you. Many people are doing that, of course, and moving here to the mountains is kind of an escape, I guess. But of course, the climate here is wonderful. We have great food. There's lots of farm to table, so, yeah, it's a great place to live.

Speaker 4:

How fast do I have to get out of here? Can you use your tool to look at the numbers for here? Thanks you and I wouldn't work with anyone else and I so appreciate you working with me for all of this time.

Speaker 2:

Oh, that is so sweet and it's absolutely an honor. Like I said, okay, let me go look it up for you and we will do a deep dive. And if anybody wants these figures, by the way, give us a call at 800 570 9962 and we can dig into yours too 800 570 9962, and I'll do price drops or values or anything else. I'm going to send you the reports on these as well so that you can see them, and I can do this for any zip code in the USA. There's 30 data points, so we're not going to cover all of those. So these are all figures from as close as we can get to most recent figures. So, for example, 2024,.

Speaker 2:

I like to start with the price cut data, why, when you see price cuts, that's what we call a leading indicator for prices falling in the coming months. This means that people are out there listed, they have the homes for sale now and a percentage of them are cutting their prices. So, for example, back in 2017, 4.6 of the homes listed had a price cut in your area and I'm looking at zip code 78237 right now, san Antonio. I can literally get it down to zip code. And when we look at 2018, that goes up to 19.3. So this is, you know, coming towards COVID here and then it drops down. Then, back in 2021, we had zero percent were cutting their prices and then we start to see the the incline coming here. So only 3.5 percent of all those listings had price cuts in 2022 19.3 percent. That was a big jump last year. So one in five people who were listed last year cut their prices. However, 2024 so far, it's nearly 39 percent of people. So people in san antonio. That means what is it? What does that mean? You know seven, eight, two, three, seven. So people in san antonio are looking at their listings and they're People in San Antonio. That means what does that mean? You know 78237. So people in San Antonio are looking at their listings and they're going. Some of them are going. We really want to sell and we're going to cut our prices. They're seeing all the other price cuts going on, both in San Antonio and around the country, and they're cutting their price so they can get sold. So price cuts are very, very important.

Speaker 2:

Now, you're not necessarily. If you're buying, you're not going to necessarily see those prices drop until September, october, november this year. Why? Because we have a lot of people listing now that are cutting their prices. Let's say it takes them another month or two to actually get under contract and then it takes them another month to six weeks to actually close. Once it closes at that lower price and that lower price gets recorded, that's when you'll see this severe downward pressure on pricing. There's downward pressure on pricing now because all the sellers out there see all of the other homes that are having price cuts and any of the smart agents are saying that's the word for intelligent in England, by the way, not not smart mouth All of those agents that are actually looking at the what's going on in their market in San Antonio and noticing all of the price drops and they're passing that on to their sellers, who may be thinking it's like a couple of years ago when there were multiple offers going on and everything else.

Speaker 2:

So let's have a look at home value. What is it saying about home value? You have a score of 22. What does that mean? A mid score is 50. So you've got 22. So on all of the forecast pieces on there, it's looking like we've got a price going down. Now they're looking at to come up with that score. They're looking at recent depreciation days on market mortgage rates.

Speaker 2:

Of course that changes for everybody. Inventory and the number of price cuts that's the way they actually calculate that. And we can do lots more for you. Home value growth year over year, that kind of thing. Also, is it overvalued? This is a fascinating one. And again they look at all kinds of different scores on there. The trajectory is actually going down for those values and again I can send you and I will send you at the end of the show today a complete report on this. And remember, just because you're not in San Antonio, I can do this for you anywhere. So give us a call 828-333-4483. We have operators standing by ready to take your call anywhere in the country. That was awesome. So thank you so much for calling in. I'm sorry we didn't get it live on the show today, but it's always that time difference piece, you know, when you're coming in from different places.

Speaker 2:

I'm looking at some of the figures now and again you can see all these at cashcpocom If you've just tuned in. We're looking at price reductions with broken records in the last month in terms of the number of price reductions out. We've broken records in the last month in terms of the number of price reductions out there. Now what we look at is the number of homes that are going on the market. Remember, we've been telling you for the longest time there's no inventory out there. There are very few homes out there for sale. That's changing very dramatically. There are a few spots in the Northeast where it's not changing and in in some places prices are still going up there. However, it just tends to come later. You know, the economic cycle happens everywhere. It comes later in some markets.

Speaker 2:

So the big story was six percent of the nation's home sellers decided to cut their asking prices. Really, that's normal, right. So when you've got houses out there and it's the peak selling season of people, some of them want to get out and cut their prices. But let's look at what that really means and we've got these talking heads out there, especially if you, just tuned in, say house prices are going to boom or burst, it doesn't mean anything. As I wrote in the blog post, it's totally disingenuous because home prices and how the market is happening is totally what's happening on comparable homes to yours. So it's the house next door, it's the house on the street, it's the house in your town, it's the house in your zip code. However, by looking at these zip codes we can really get some more information. Okay, so there were a couple of reports done. One was on realtorcom, one was on Narada Real Estate Investments, one was CoreLogic, pulling from all those reductions in the last month.

Speaker 2:

So this is this year Number one. We're looking at key cities here, 10 key cities where the price reductions are going on Reno, so Reno, 32.6. And remember something like there is no normal, but there's always going to be people who are reducing their prices, even in this, which is often in many markets the top month for selling houses, you know June, july, august that's when you see most of the sales go on, not everywhere, but in many, many places. It's the summer people are moving. That's when you see most of the sales go on, not everywhere, but in many, many places it's the summer people are moving. So Reno here, 32.6% of people, that's, you know that's a lot. That's one in three people are cutting their price and we'll go into what that means in a second. Number two is Austin. Austin's even higher than this now, because I just got the latest month in and of course it depends on which zip code that we look at 32.4%. So again, you know, one in three listings are cutting their price. They're looking at what the market is doing. They're looking at all the other price cuts and this is how the economic cycle works. We get to the top, people start noticing price cuts in their market and they go heck, we have to sell Now. If you don't have to sell, keep your house. But remember, keep it for seven to 10 years, because that's when it's going to be worth more.

Speaker 2:

If you want to see a whole video on Clément Juglar and the economic cycle, it's not very long, it's about four minutes. I put it on here for you so you could see it. I'm really trying to tie in these um, you know actual pictures with uh doing the radio show, because it's great to be able to listen to this on your way home or on the podcast, as well as live every Saturday morning. Gosh, we've been doing this for 12 years now. I think. We're on. We're going towards show 700. Randy and I have been spending our Saturdays 700 Saturdays I know 700 Saturdays.

Speaker 2:

That's a lot, guys. Seven that's with an S 700 Saturdays Amazing.

Speaker 3:

It is amazing.

Speaker 2:

So you know Austin's it's actually a little higher than Reno. Now it's just taken the number one spot Phoenix 29.5%. All of these are around the 30%. So Reno's at number one, austin Texas number two. Phoenix Arizona is number three. That's good news. A lot of people retire to Phoenix, arizona if you need that dry heat. So that's good news for prices coming down, most likely in Phoenix, but not yet. I'm going to talk about that in a minute. Anchorage so Anchorage has been a place where those multiple offers were still going on Boise, idaho, ogden, utah I'm really embarrassed to say I don't know where that is. Ogden Utah, sacramento, california there's our first California on there Coming in at number eight, colorado Springs. Coming in at number nine, evansville, indiana.

Speaker 2:

A lot of people move from Indiana to here. So if you're in that Indiana market, it's very common for people to move here from there. So you want to look at okay, you're having price reductions, what does that mean in a few months for not getting your top dollar and what's happening here in the mountains? If you're moving here and, of course, anywhere in the country, country, I can look at both zip codes for you. Most of you are moving not to the same zip code, whether you're here in the mountains or you're in California or New York or Florida or anything else. I can look at both zip codes and keep you in touch without even calling you or anything. I can set you up so you get these figures every single month, which is very cool. I can even set you up with the exact house or the exact type of house that you're looking at here and show you in that zip code what the report's doing, so you can see where the prices are going up or down and at the same time, look at your house in Evansville, indiana. It's all. It's not out there on the internet or anything. I keep it all private for you so you can watch in the privacy of your own email box, however private they are these days. But who knows, I'm gonna get it to you somehow.

Speaker 2:

Or we can talk that would be fine too but you can literally watch what's happening, what's forecast to happen, in your zip code or in your market and at the same time, watch it here, because you want to catch it, just like in the stock market it is. That's why when you listen to those ads every day and they're like, oh yeah, we watch three stocks, and we know there's going to be market shifts in that, so we catch it when it's going down. That's what you're doing here, right? You're watching it now. Of course, you may just be moving and you may say, to heck with all of that. If we, you know, pay 50 000 more, it's, it's going to be our forever home, so who cares? That's fine too, but you don't have to do all of this work. I'm doing it for you all of the time, for every single zip code in the country. Coming in at number 10, medford, oregon. Do you know where that is, randy?

Speaker 3:

No I don't.

Speaker 2:

It must be pretty big too. So we're highlighting the variability in real estate is what we're doing. That's all and a lot of these numbers. I just got the new main numbers in and those are not on here. I wrote this the other day. The main numbers just came in, so I can go into one of that. They've probably changed the top 10. There's been some new ones come in there. So let's look, for example, let's compare that.

Speaker 2:

So, price reductions, what does that look like for Asheville, north Carolina? So when I go into Asheville North Carolina, we are running about 40% now, depending on which zip code we're in. Yeah, so that would make us top of the list. They often don't go into the small. You know, we're kind of considered a small market, we're a little baby market, so that's all that's going on there. So you know, hey, it's worth looking at where you're coming from and where you're going to. That's always very important, obviously. So you know what does all of that mean? It means that prices are going to soften.

Speaker 2:

Now they're softening out your name, because you might want to be private, but he came over from Hawaii. He's been staying in his parents' property, which is a second home in Florida for a while. He's been up here for the week which is wonderful looking at homes and, of course, he's noticed all of the price drops. So he's like, well, what's going on? Is this happening all around the country? It is happening in most places in the country. Northeast deserves a shout out because it hasn't happened in most parts of the Northeast yet, with some exceptions. However, it comes faster, it comes slower at different areas in the country. That's why it's so important to get an agent that's got real experience behind you. I'll set you up for free, absolutely no obligation, wherever you're coming from and wherever you're going to, so you can see those. Because what does all of this mean? Price cuts are.

Speaker 2:

A leading, not a lagging indicator is when people, lots of people, have dropped their price and that we're getting a mortgage on the house. That mortgage has happened on the house. Most people get mortgages. They're not paying cash. Some people are paying cash, but most get mortgages the bank does an appraisal. The bank wants to make sure their asset is protected, so they do an appraisal. Once they do that appraisal and this is months down the line for the people who are doing price drops right now right, because they're not under contract. Once it's under contract which could take another month, say, especially if you've just listed, or maybe you haven't listed yet so time is not your friend right now. If you want to get out for the top dollar in most markets around the country because you're going to list, maybe you've been on for a month already. Again, that's not unusual. Now we're not selling in a week in most places, unless you've got the absolute perfect house. It's in show ready condition all the time and it's priced very aggressively. You're probably not going to get multiple offers. They're very, very rare now. So again, in some markets you know that's my disclaimer. So the leading, not lagging, indicator. The lagging is when the mortgage has been done, the appraiser comes in, that house is closed. So we're months out from that. So we do have this window.

Speaker 2:

However, that first domino has fallen. That's the best way to put it. The first domino are price cuts. You're already listed. The second domino is the amount of inventory on the market. So in other words, how many homes are on the market? It's all supply and demand. That's all it is. It's supply and demand. So when there's more homes on the market, buyers have more to choose from and some of those people are dipping their toe in to say, oh, shall we sell? Shall we not sell? By the way, I highly do not recommend that right now.

Speaker 2:

If you want to sell, get out there, do it fast. Use somebody that's got a lot of experience. This is not the time to use your brother or sister or a friend that got their real estate license last week, unless they've got major experience in real estate from maybe a different market or something like that. If you want to sell right now, get it out there. Get it out there fast. Maybe request your full market value cash offer at the same time. Why not? At least that will give you a really good value in there. This is a full market value cash offer, no obligation. Obviously, we do traditional listings as well.

Speaker 2:

So you know, go ahead and go to cashcpocom, cashcpocom anywhere in the country. Request your cash offer. That will give you a home value. It's going to ask you some questions to make sure we've got the right data on there. Absolutely no obligation. We don't sell you data or any of that nonsense. You know we do put you with an agent. If I'm not in your market, it'll be the me in your market. In fact, they'll probably be way better than me. They'll be in the top 1% of their market with a massive amount of experience. So you will only be with those top agents.

Speaker 2:

So go ahead and get your cash offer cashcpocom, and you click on get cash offer. About five minutes later you'll have filled everything in. It doesn't even take you that long. At least that will get your home value, even if you're just thinking what's your home worth. Go ahead and do that. That's going to get you the most accurate value from anything CashCPO that stands for certified pre-owned, from anything CashCPO that stands for certified pre-owned CashCPOcom. There's a big button that comes up get the cash offer. So back to the price drop pressure. That's going to come. We've got supply and demand. Supply is increasing almost everywhere. Again, call in if you want me to do your particular zip code on there. More than happy to do that, of course and we'll look at yours. And and then you know right now your current listing.

Speaker 2:

Let's say it's going to take another month to get it sold. So, believe it or not, we're in July. Isn't that crazy? We're not even a month from July 4th. So that's going to happen. So okay, so let's go. Let's go July 20th. To make the math easy, so July 20th you go under contract. Most places it's going to take about six weeks, so we're in September at that point before it closes, isn't that crazy? If you put your house on the market now, you'll be closing in September. Another reason that date is important is because the market tends to slow a little bit in September because that's when the kids are going to school.

Speaker 3:

Going back to school?

Speaker 2:

Yes, leaves turning yes, exactly Getting cooler, getting cooler, yeah, so it tends to slow down a little bit. You've got to get the kids ready for school. So if you've got one of those larger houses that is more of a family-friendly house where people who are coming in from somewhere else and they want to get settled in a school, get out there now. And they want to get settled in a school, get out there now. If you're just dipping your toe in, probably not the time to do that. You want to wait it out. But if you wait it out, you want to wait that 7 to 10 years so that you get your money back. Don't wait it out for 3 or 5 years. You can see all of this. Go to cashcpocom, click on blog. So it's the very first blog on there. It's going to show you the video on the economic cycle. Maybe I'll even play it for you in a minute and we'll go through that, because it's been a while since we've been through it, or maybe I'll just do it live for you. How about that? So in October? So OK, so now we've closed, right, and now those lower prices, because all these people now one in three, one in four, one in five, some of it is half of the listings even more than that. Actually, seven out of 10 in some places are cutting their price because they see the writing on the wall. And that's when people see the writing on the wall. Their friends are noticing, the people next door are noticing that are listing their home. So that's why that part drives prices down. So now we're closing around September time and then the actual number comes in because your house is closed. People out there that are cutting their prices right now your house is closed. That amount goes on the multiple listing service anywhere in the country. And then when new buyers come along to new sellers that are listing their house, the appraisers are looking for comparable houses and you who just closed might be a comparable house. Well, guess what? You closed at a lower price, so now the comparables are lower. That's what drives the price down.

Speaker 2:

Any questions, give us a call 800-570-9962. If you'd like to understand that at a better level, or you've got questions on it, or you want to say no, that's nonsense, that isn't happening at all, because we've got questions on it. Or you want to say no, that's nonsense, that isn't happening at all, because we've got celebrities on fox saying the house prices are going to boom at the end of this year? Well, maybe they will, but, come on, I want to hear what you got. Maybe that celebrity could call him too. That would be fun. So, and that cycle is going to continue in terms of the downward pressure for the next three and a half to five and a half years.

Speaker 2:

And again, clément Juglar is on there. I think I can play it on here, because it's not. Yeah, it's a five minute video you can watch on there. That will show you Like we peaked in 2007. We had an extremely long cycle. We peaked again in 2023, or really at the end of 2022, bumping along the top until some fear comes into the market. Oh, oh. Or maybe there's an election. There's all kinds of things that that trigger it, and you can see them on the bottom of here political unrest, days on the market, interest rate shifts we've had all of those in most places. We're seeing longer days on the market, sometimes because the inventory or the number of homes out there is still low. It's giving you that little window, which is a wonderful thing. So, again, if you just tuned in, you can see it at cashcpocom. Check out what yours is doing there.

Speaker 2:

I am going to log in here and choose all the local figures as well. I thought I had another ones where we saw the price reductions. Um, we did the price drops and I did the other markets as well on there, showing all the other markets that have, uh the here they are, uh, no, they're not here. That's very strange. Where did they go? I will add them on there later on because it's really interesting when you look at the top 10 for the actual forecast for where the price is going. Most of Buncombe County, most of Henderson, is fairly flat. We've got a few places where and I did a show on that the last couple of weeks as well so you can go back and listen to them. But remember the figures change all the time. Now we've got a three-month trend. You know by the end of the year it's going to be a lot longer than that, obviously, here we go. So which one should we look at?

Speaker 3:

Buncombe or Henderson. Where are you interested in, Randy? I'm interested in.

Speaker 2:

Henderson which any particular town in? Do you mean Hendersonville or a particular town like Mars Hill.

Speaker 3:

In Henderson County Mills River, mills River okay.

Speaker 2:

So Mills River, interestingly, is hopping.

Speaker 3:

Yeah, getting a new.

Speaker 2:

Publix.

Speaker 3:

I know.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, gosh, I think that's going right in where I used to live down there, actually it is right there near Bojangles, I think. So yeah, that's really interesting when we look at that one. So what we've got in Mills River particularly is it's still kind of flat and bumping along there.

Speaker 2:

We do have some towns where, again, it's fairly flat, and I can send you all of these pictures. I'm actually going to add them to the blog post as soon as we're done today live. But we're kind of bumping along the top in most cases. Some of them were dropping just a little bit and the forecast is most definitely down. We've now got four months of trend. We had three months of trend just last week when I was announcing the figures. So, as that trend happens and we've got four, you know four months of that trend.

Speaker 2:

And again, you don't even have to be looking at the trend. You're noticing when, if I've got a market watch set up for you and I can do that as well I can do a market watch showing you houses in the county that appraisers are going to use in six months, if you're already listed, those appraisers are going to use in six months against your house or now against your house. It will show you when houses close like yours, and it's much more accurate actually than the forecasts I'm giving you, because I'm looking at when was your home built, how many beds and baths does it have, you know, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So I'm getting it very accurate, showing you what's actually closing. But that's the anecdotal piece. It's not showing you necessarily the trend, but it's showing you the absolute homes. Again, 828-333-4483. Call in, leave your address on there. You won't get me right now because I'm on the radio show. However, I will set up that market watch for you. 828-333-4483. We can set up a market watch anywhere in the country and what that will do is it will show you homes as they close. It will give you an instant alert. It will also give you an instant alert when something like your home comes on the market and it will show you the actual house. And you can say, well, to heck with that, because it's not like my house, my house is better than that. So and you can say, well, to heck with that, because it's not like my house, my house is better than that. So maybe we're thinking of the wrong price on it. And then another one will come out a few days later and it will send you an email instantly to show you the market watch. It's like you having access to the MLS, but getting a very accurate example of what your home could be priced at and you can watch the market. Very good.

Speaker 2:

If you haven't listed, yet I do really want you to think about that. I know I've been saying that for a while, but here's the deal, guys. It's not just my opinion. Now. This is showing you all of the data out there and I have. If you look on that same blog post, you will find there's an actual section for market reports. I'm doing them as many as I can do. It takes quite a while, as you can imagine, but if you go down to market reports, you will see it in there. So I'm scrolling through the blogs here. It's here, I promise. Here's Hendersonville, for example. So you see Hendersonville in here. Now it's a month old at this point, but I am doing them every single month. So watch that blog. I will be updating them every single month, which will be very helpful for you if you're thinking about listing. What do you think of the figures, randy? Are they sending you to sleep or what are they doing for you?

Speaker 3:

No, it's very interesting. It's very, very interesting and it coincides with what you've been saying. We're past the peak and started down.

Speaker 2:

Which you know is really why you either want to get out. I'm not pushing you to get it sold now. That's not what I'm doing at all. What I am doing is saying, if you have been thinking about selling, either hold on to it and you want to. If you're holding on to it's not a problem.

Speaker 2:

We're in 2024, so it's a 7 to 11 year cycle. So 2031 is the next time we expect this little boom to be going on. You know we'll see the boom a couple of years before that, but you'll probably be at the price you're at now and then we expect it to decline. In some markets we're showing 30%, 40% overpriced. It just depends on what market you're in. I've got all those forecasts as well, by the way. I can show you those forecasts. I can send you the report for those forecasts. So you know that's really going to help you make a more intelligent decision when you're thinking about listing or looking at what price it should be at, especially when I can then attach it to actual homes that are selling, like yours. Of course, if you're buying, you want to look at those. Of course, you know, because, well, why do you think you'd want to look at them if you were buying, randy?

Speaker 3:

Well, you got to know what's going on and you can do that anywhere in the country if you're thinking of moving to California. You can look at houses in California in that price range and what's going on with them?

Speaker 2:

This is a paid tool I pay a lot of money for, but I'm making the videos and I'm making reports from it and you get all of that for free. You don't have to pay anything for it, even when you're not here. Why do I do that? Because it's always been this way since I got into real estate. I want you to have really intelligent figures on which you can base an intelligent decision. This is a massive thing when, especially when you're moving, you know maybe you're moving out of this area or moving into this area. That's a major life change. You just moved, randy. How was it?

Speaker 3:

Oh, it's horrific. I mean, I always prided myself on being a minimalist, but I was wrong. I was wrong. It's amazing and I can't imagine you know going to another. I moved like four miles.

Speaker 2:

Yeah.

Speaker 2:

Can you imagine 400 miles, you know well, I think the difference is you've got friends close by. You know, sometimes the shorter distances can be just as hard, in fact the really short ones. I moved two doors down once. I'm like I don't need movers, we'll just take it up bit by bit. So it can actually be harder. When it's very close, yeah, but generally when you know you're within half an hour or something of your move, you've got friends around, you've got support. You know people will take you out to dinner. Uh, as you get older, people won't help you anymore because they'll say to hell with that. I hurt my back last time and that's the right answer, by the way, if somebody asks you to it is move, hire the movers for it.

Speaker 2:

It's worth the investment, amen, and we should give a shout out to trinity movers.

Speaker 3:

Oh yeah, those guys, uh uh, tyrone and cam yes tyrone and cam. They were phenomenal. I highly recommend trinity movers. They're they're so careful they could. They could re. They could easily handle antiques, because I got a few.

Speaker 2:

Up in the attic.

Speaker 3:

They did a great job.

Speaker 2:

Well, they carried you out and packed you up.

Speaker 3:

Oh sorry, randy.

Speaker 2:

I didn't mean it.

Speaker 3:

They did, and they did a good job too.

Speaker 2:

We're going to do a whole show on that, like all the stuff you had up in the attic even though you downsized from when you moved before, because it's just really interesting, I think. So okay. So so far on our show today we've covered price reductions, breaking records in the housing market. If you want to know whether your zip code has broken records, I'm more than happy to share it with you. They have, by the way, since they've been measured. We've broken records in Western North Carolina already in the price cuts Amazing.

Speaker 2:

And if you just tuned in, price cuts are the leading indicator of the market softening and this isn't just one month of them, price cuts going up. In other words, if there's 100 listings on the market, you'd expect 5% or 6% to have price cuts. That's normal, right. So obviously there's some people who just want out. Maybe they're getting a divorce and they don't want to chase the market down. They're scared that things are going to happen in the economy, because a lot of economists are getting very scary right now about what's going to happen. We've got the election coming up. That always tends to soften the market a little bit beforehand and they're just ready.

Speaker 2:

Maybe you know, I've got one person I'm helping whose spouse has already moved. Unfortunately, their cancer has massacized and they're in a different state, being helped by the kids right now and everything's being wrapped up here. So you know that will be a case of let's get us out now at the highest price possible. So it just depends on you know that will be a case of let's get us out now at the highest price possible. So it just depends on you know what your situation is. Everybody's situation is different and, honestly, that's what I love about real estate. For me, it's not just about putting a lockbox on the door, on the side and outside and getting it sold. I'm going out to at least five listing appointments a week right now.

Speaker 2:

It is very clear that people here are wanting to sell. So there's always going to be five or 6%. Just like foreclosures, there's always going to be people. It's never zero. There's always people that are late on their payments or got sick or, for whatever reason you know, couldn't pay their mortgage, so they go into foreclosures. Same things with unemployment. It's never zero. There's always some people. There's always that baseline. It's never zero, right? So that's not that unusual. The thing is it's not 6% in many of our markets and it's not here.

Speaker 2:

We're seeing 20%, 30%, 40% price cuts, which means that by the end and we've been seeing it for three months it's kept going for three months. Now we've got that three-month trend. Now you'll remember from seeing a stock market roller coaster that it sort of goes up, goes down, goes up, goes down. We've seen three months of straight down in terms of the price cuts happening. If I were a betting girl, I would say that we're definitely going to see lower prices come the fall and winter. So in other words and they don't just go up next year, sellers say to me oh, I'll just try it again in a year.

Speaker 2:

Look at the economic cycle. This has been going on since 1860. It doesn't change. Yes, we had an exceptionally long cycle last time around, which is even worse if you're selling, because you'd have to hold out last time for 14 years to get to the top instead of 7 to 11. That's not fun at all. So if you're 60 right now, I want you to think about 7 to 11. You'll be 67 to 71 when you're thinking about packing up and moving to wherever you're going to. So if you're moving to be by the grandkids, your grandkids will already be teenagers and they probably won't want to spend any time with you anymore, because they'll be out doing the things they want to do wherever you're going to.

Speaker 2:

So that's why it's so in, that's why it's so important to think about your lifestyle and where you're going. So there's another blog post on there. For you know, I've been because we launched assisted living, cpo. We have a lot of people that we're talking to. They are a little bit frustrated and most of these people are in their late well, sometimes in their 50s, sometimes in their 60s, sometimes in their 40s. And these are the kids in their 40s, 50s, sometimes 60s, who are frustrated because their parents won't move into assisted living. Have you ever met anybody like that, randy? Do you know friends who you know?

Speaker 2:

The kids is a bit of a misnomer. Obviously you know it's the parents' kids who won't move into there, but they're usually already boomers themselves, ie 59 and up, 60 and up, I think it is. But sometimes they're 40 and 50 because you know their parents were 30 when they had them. So if you're 40 and your parents had you in their 30s, your parents are in their 70s. And sometimes you know one of them maybe your mom was in her 70s and dad was in his would now be in his 80s and he needs some assistance. So it can start really young and you know, once you have that parent where you're getting together with them at Thanksgiving or July 4th is coming up here or their birthday or whatever it is, and they're struggling a little bit or maybe they've been in the hospital, maybe they've broken a leg, maybe they're having some heart problems.

Speaker 2:

I'm thinking about a really good friend of mine who is in her 70s now I'm not I'm not gonna call you out Joni, oops, um a lover to death, absolute sweetheart, who's now in Atlanta to be closer to one of her kids. She moved into a beautiful luxury condo there. I helped her move here from the lake about 12 years ago, probably longer than that, actually, like 15 years ago. I helped to move here from the lake and it was a wonderful experience. I helped her sell a house here and helped her with the right person to help her in Atlanta. But that was years and years of process and, quite frankly, her kids, quite rightly. I got to know her really well in her entire family. I called her up my surrogate mother. It's probably the closest one I've been involved in outside of my ex-husband, who's a really good friend of mine still and his parents going into assisted living in Charleston.

Speaker 2:

You know it's a long process, it takes years, and usually we're coming home for the holidays and usually it's like Mom, dad, we really need to get you some help. We can't get on a flight across the country. Or, you know, get in the car and drive for six hours. Usually you're either at the height of your career or you're ready to slow down a little bit. 40s, 50s, 60s you say, oh my gosh, I've got to get in the car again. You ain't 19 anymore, when it was fun to drive across country. Actually I'd still like to do that right now, but I'm probably unusual in that.

Speaker 2:

So you know, it gets a bit old for the kids and the siblings start arguing about. It's your turn to go back and mom's in hospital and she's going into rehab for, you know, maybe hip replacement or something like that. She's going to be in in the rehab for a couple of weeks. That's to rehab her walking and everything, not to rehab her alcohol problem. Maybe she's getting in for that as well, who knows? So you know, it's like who is going to be there in that area? Maybe there's somebody in that area.

Speaker 2:

And then you know, sally, who's in that area, is getting fed up of always being the one to help mum out. You know what I'm talking about, randy. You have siblings, right? Yes, I'm an only child. However, I've been part of families that have siblings and I've seen this almost every time. It's not fair. The burden always gets put on one sibling more than the others and eventually they can get a little fed up of it.

Speaker 2:

Actually, I'm helping a lady now who is inherited a home from a group of siblings, and she actually inherited the home because she's the one that stayed at home taking care of parents. This is this is so common. So we actually have a program called assistedlivingcpocom assistedlivingcpocom that helps your parents or you to bet if it's you, of course out of this scenario. Um, you know, you get the full market value cash offer. We go in, we spruce it up, we give you a second check. Two thirds of our clients get more than with a traditional listing. So it's a great one for that. And you know it's interesting with all these conversations that we're having. We're hearing a lot from the seniors who are staying. But you know it's the home we've lived in for decades, 've got all our memories here, but sometimes it's not the memories or the loss of the home. So you know what is it, it's okay. So now you know the kids have come home. It's often how it happens and then you go out and you're looking at all these senior living facilities. It usually takes another year or two to actually move. After that, well, I'm here to tell you how do I put this delicately, you don't want to wait it out for seven to 11 years. So if you're a senior, or if your kids are a senior and they've been procrastinating, or as a kid, you don't want to believe that your parents are ready for some extra help and you're just going to be there and help them through, start looking and see what's out there, because there may come a time when they need assistance quickly and the problem with that is you can't do this quickly. You need to go and look at a number of assisted living places. We're building a list of assisted living facilities or ccnrs they're sometimes called senior living communities all over the country, both independent living and then places that you can lease, where you go into a facility that's independent living to start off with and then you can get more and more help and progress through. We're building those all over the country. I'm very excited by that and you'll be able to look. You know where you want to retire and you're 55 plus or you're seeing a living community all over the all over the country. Now the problem is that your parents go in and they oh, you maybe use the kids have looked at these senior living communities and then, oh my gosh, then there's these overwhelming thoughts that flood through your mind. At that point, how are we going to find a decent realtor? Don't start behind the eight ball, because that's what we're doing. At that point, you know you've got to find a decent realtor. Don't start behind the eight ball, because that's what we're doing. At that point, you know you've got to understand the market value. That's what I'm offering to do for you now. Remember, I and agents at my level have been working with people. It's not about just grabbing a commission check. We've been working with people for a gazillion years. I mean literally. I have people that I'm still talking to after seven years. Sometimes I've helped them sell and move three times. Sometimes I haven't done anything. I'm still talking to them after all that time. So start now. You know the good ones aren't going to keep calling you. The ones who just care about commission check aren't ever going to call you again anyway. So you don't have to worry about that. You have to keep calling them. We will call you back. So find that trustworthy person. Now you can actually go to cashcpocom, c-a-s-h, cpocom. Click on find agent at the top anywhere in the country. If it's me, you'll find me right here. You can click on whether you want home value or you're thinking about selling, or you'd just like to understand the process. So start now, you know. And then those overwhelming thoughts where will we find the energy to do all of this? We'll just put it off for another year. Unfortunately, time-wise, it's most likely we don't have that time right now. So please don't put it off and don't burden your children with it. Please. We've got to sort through the cabinets, the drawers, the bedrooms, and it's not necessarily the kids that want to do that. Sometimes the kids do, you know, because the things that they might want.

Speaker 2:

And you're probably right sizing whether you're going into assisted living or not. You've probably planned to right size for the last 10 years, or 20 years sometimes, and you haven't gotten around to it. Oh my gosh, who will pack everything? By the way, we can help you with all of this. We can line everything up so it's as seamless as possible. We can help coordinate the estate sales, the consignment sales, the auction pickups, the charitable donations, the hauling the trash away All of those people. We can help you with that. It doesn't cost you anything, by the way, for us to help you. We're expert. All of our agents are experts in that. So, oh my gosh, those responsibilities can leave you feeling paralyzed, oh my gosh, and that's why we formed this.

Speaker 2:

You know many of you the kids who are listening have moved away and started your own life and convincing your parents to actually move into a CCNR or even moving into, you know, a senior living community where there are people there that play pickleball and maybe it's maintained outside. You know that's step one, like a 55 plus community, something like that. It can be really challenging, although you might be surprised in that your parents have been thinking about it for a while. But if you are being burdened. I mean it sounds awful, doesn't it? Because we all want to be there to help our parents, but you can't be there all the time. You know that the time that it takes away from you is taken away from your family, if you have one, and your friends and your life, if you have one. And most of your parents don't want to do that to you, at least not when it's been happening for years and you know you've got more and more health issues going on. You might need more help at this point. And the funny thing is that you know our clients that work with our assisted living CPO experts. Those are the people that help you through this whole process anywhere in the country.

Speaker 2:

Maybe you're moving from the Carolinas to be near your kids in Atlanta or near your kids in Florida or whatever it's at. Maybe you're moving away from the kids because get them out all out of your life already and you're moving to Florida because you wanted a bit warmer. The average thing that people say and this is from a client who, again, I'm not going to shout out, but this quote, you can see this quote on there at cashcpocom, go down to the second post on there Say this is more than we could have hoped for and we couldn't have done it without your support. You know most of you, when you've moved, say we should have done this years ago and oh my gosh again. You know, guys, you can't let it go to this point unless you want to hold out for 10 years. So tell if you're listening around the country. I want you to tell your parents this. It's the right thing to do and let's go ahead.

Speaker 2:

Maybe you're in the northeast where we've maybe we've got a year or two before we see that market softening. Maybe you're in a market like syracuse, where we've had Chip on a couple of times. Chip Hodgkins, an amazing agent up there who you can follow him on Instagram. He does great. He gives great videos all the time. I can send you a link to him. We've had him on the show a couple of times. Maybe you've got a little while At some point.

Speaker 2:

Almost every market, just like it did last time and the cycle before that and the cycle before that for decades, will soften. So if you want top dollar, and especially with something like assisted living, or maybe you're getting divorced don't wait. Get that value now. Certainly with me in western north carolina. You're going to find no pressure at all.

Speaker 2:

I can tell you with the top agents that we use around the country, you know, just go on to cashcpocom, click on find agent. I will find that agent for you. If you want your value, go on there. Click on get cash offer. It's the same thing. We'll do the value for you and get you a cash offer at the same time and, by the way, the cash offer is for your full market value. We'll write the offer for you. At least do an overview of the offer so you can take a look, put it in your back pocket. What have you got to lose? Thank you so much again for hanging out with me today. Thank you, michael, who called in right before the show. Hope that helped you out where he was coming from in Texas. Give us a call 828-333-4483. See you on the show next week.

Speaker 1:

This has been the Plain English Real Estate Show with Rowena Patton. Visit Rowena and post your questions at radioashvillecom or call her at 828-210-1648.

Real Estate Market
Real Estate Market Analysis and Trends
Real Estate Market Trends and Cycles
Real Estate Market Trends and Insights
Planning for Aging Parents
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