Decoding Real Estate: Navigating Price Cuts, Market Trends, and Agent Value

Ever wondered how to decode the real estate market's hidden signals? This episode of the Real Estate Market Analysis Show with Rowena Patton equips you with the tools you need to make smart decisions, whether you're buying, selling, or just staying informed. We start by tackling questions from our listeners—Linda in Raleigh, Pete in Black Mountain, and Michael from Allentown, Pennsylvania. Their inquiries about home values, property taxes, and the buy vs. rent differential open up a detailed discussion on how mortgage payments and income dynamics have evolved over time.

Understanding price cuts can be a game-changer, especially in peak listing season. We analyze data from specific zip codes to gauge seller urgency and market trends, revealing that up to 50% of homes in some areas are seeing price reductions. Learn how these trends might signal broader economic shifts and discover strategies to navigate a market rife with overpriced homes due to recent buying frenzies. By the end of this chapter, you'll have a clearer sense of how new home inventory impacts market stability and what it means for buyers and sellers alike.

Think real estate agents are a thing of the past? Think again. This episode underscores the irreplaceable value they bring to the table, from understanding the intricacies of price reductions and their impact on home appraisals to preparing homes for sale with strategies like certified pre-owned listings. Finally, we zoom in on Raleigh's fluctuating market conditions, offering insights and forecasts that are especially useful for those contemplating a move. Whether you're helping family members with relocation or strategizing to maximize home equity, this episode is packed with expert advice and practical tips tailored to your needs.

Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:00

This is the Plain English Real Estate Show with your host, rowena Patton, a show that focuses on the real estate market in terms you can easily understand. Call Rowena now. The number is 240-9962 or 1-800-570-9962. Now here's the English girl in the mountains, the agent that I would trust, rowena Patton.

Speaker 2: 0:23

Good morning and welcome to the show. It's an honor to have you here. Thanks for listening. And wow, we got feathers all of a flurry last week talking about our figures. So today we've got Linda from Raleigh, who called in with a question from Raleigh. We've got Pete from Black Mountain. We've got Michael from Allentown. I recorded everybody there. Thank you so much, guys for calling in. If anybody would like to call in live 828-240-9962.

Speaker 2: 0:57

So I'll give you an example. I spoke with Linda and she said that she lives in Raleigh and she heard it last week and she wants me to go through the figures for Raleigh. So I'll be playing that in just a little bit and also going through the figures live. So if we've also got Pete from Black Mountain, we've got Michael called in from Allentown, pennsylvania, pennsylvania. So, and these are all people that have been on our home search tool for many, many years, sometimes as long as 17 or 18 years ago. Michael's been on on. So of course I look everybody up by phone number. And Michael, we've been sending properties to for about eight years. Pete forever oh my gosh. So I used to know Pete when he was in Black Mountain. So that's, that's a good, a good dozen years, if not longer than that, and Linda's been on our database for two years, the database being properties going to Linda because she used to live here and her kids live, or a child if I remember right, a son that lives here and she wants to come back. She's ready to come back. Dad isn't around anymore and she wants to come back to Black Mountain. So if you would like to call in, live and get your area it's like doctors in the house with the figures I've got a fantastic tool that can go through a leading indicator, which is price cuts.

Speaker 2: 2:23

It's very important right now. If you're thinking of selling, you want to know how many price cuts are going on in your area and you don't have to say it's your house for sale or you're thinking of selling your house or anything else. You can say calling in for a friend if you want to, but we'll go through. You know what percentage of price cuts are there. Why is that a leading indicator? And you can look at Real Estate News Radio on YouTube as well. I just did a video on this, actually showing the figures for price cuts all around the country, so you may want to look at that as well. Just look at Rowena Patton on YouTube or Real Estate News Radio. It's actually the last video that was on there, so you can actually see all the figures and I'll do some more today as well.

Speaker 2: 3:02

Again, if you've got any special requests, just give us a call 240-9962. I will make a video for you anywhere in the country and I've got a lot of figures that we can go through and I'm going to go into specifics with Linda, pete and Michael. I know you're all standing by, so let me just go through some of the specifics I've got for you. So property tax rate I can go through. So let's go from the top.

Speaker 2: 3:31

So the home value where are we at in the home value and what does it look like in terms of where it's growing? So what's the home value growth? And I can do this for any zip code anywhere in the country. Of course I can delve down into neighborhoods or streets here or anywhere in the North Carolina market, and I've got people that have the same figures around the country. I'm doing figures and reports for them right now with this amazing tool.

Speaker 2: 3:53

A really interesting one is what is that zip code overvalued by? What percentage is it overvalued by? And that looks at an estimate of how over or undervalued current home values in the area are, and that's relative to the fundamentals dictated by the local median incomes. Now, sometimes the local median income, sometimes the locals, are not the people who are buying the houses. So you know, you have to look at that and you have to look at how the long term average is going. It's not a projection. However, it's very useful to look at. We've got values against income ratios and of course, we can compare different areas with that as well.

Speaker 2: 4:36

Where have the mortgage payments gone? Have they gone up? They've gone down. We all know where they've gone in the last few years. Then we've got mortgage payments as a percentage of income, which is really kind of fascinating.

Speaker 2: 4:45

Property tax rates the buy versus rent differential is so interesting, guys. So this is a case of do you have kids that are thinking about renting? Do you rent? Do you know somebody that rents? So this shows you the differential on the average cost of renting an apartment, or it compares the cost of buying a house in terms of the mortgage payment against the cost of renting an apartment in that same zip code or state or town or wherever you want to do it by right so I can run all those figures for you. So the higher the percentage, the more expensive it is to buy compared to rent. And what you'll find in a lot of areas is, now that the rent has caught up with the mortgage prices, it's actually less expensive to buy. If you're going to stay put for a while. Now, in a lot of places the mortgage payment has gotten so high it's better to rent for now. So I can do that in every single zip code in the country based on this tool.

Speaker 2: 5:41

Right, I can give you those figures so that you can make a bit more of an intelligent decision. Or maybe you know a friend or you're thinking about staying where you're at in Pennsylvania or moving here. You can look at the rent differentials against buying differentials. Maybe you're renting there and you want to move here, and you know. Look at the difference in the two areas. That could be very helpful.

Speaker 2: 6:02

And then we've got home prices. What is the percentage change from June 2022 to June now, looking at the last two years? Of course that was the peak. And then we can also look at how much did we go down in 2007, 2012,? The full percentage of that. We can look at home value growth.

Speaker 2: 6:23

I can pull all these figures individually for you. On one zip we can look at how much is for sale. Is it going up, is it going down? That's very important. Those are called market trends. And if we're looking at the number of homes for sale, is that more or less than last year? In almost every zip code in the country there's a few exceptions in the northeast and a few other places, but with very few exceptions we're breaking records on the growth of the for sale inventory, the velocity, not by the number, because we still don't have that many. However, you've got to look at trends, guys, because this is a leading indicator. It's too late in six months when we go oh, there were a lot of price cuts or we noticed it was on the way up in terms of sales. It's not going to hit the values.

Speaker 2: 7:12

For example, if we're looking at number of houses for sale, let's say last year in a particular zip code we have 50 homes for sale, right? So last year we had 50 homes for sale in one particular zip in one area. This year we've got 100 homes for sale, right? So last year we had 50 homes for sale in one particular zip in one area this year we've got 100 homes for sale. Don't listen to all these people and all these celebrities going house prices are going to do this.

Speaker 2: 7:37

Well, first of all, they never do that. They don't do that across the USA. It's different depending on zip. It's different depending on town. It's different depending on county. It's different depending on your town, in your state even. Never mind. You can't just say house prices are going to go through the roof in the USA. That's absolute BS. I'm calling BS on it. You've not only got to do it by zip code. Even a zip code isn't good enough. We dive in deeper. But at least it gives you some information, right?

Speaker 2: 8:07

So, for example, if we're looking at for sale inventory ie, how many houses are on the market right now compared to last year, the year before, the year before that what's the trend?

Speaker 2: 8:18

Is it up or it's down? If it's doubled which it has in many, many places this is not rocket science, it's just simple supply and demand. If you've got twice as many homes available, the buyer has more choice, right? So your house is going to take a bit longer to sell because there's more out there. Just that alone, never mind all these other factors going on, but it's really that simple. It's all about supply and demand. Do other things create road bumps, like interest rates? Do other things, like politics happening, create road bumps? Of course, inflation, of course all these other things are road bumps and fences, and you know, I don't know little vaccinations here and there, but supply and demand is your core indicator. If you're in a zip where there's twice as many available, the end price that you're going to get is probably going to be less. Why? Because you're putting it on now, right? So I'm talking about people who are listed now, or thinking about listing, and you're going. Is it the time to do it? Not, it's all about looking at trends and I can look at those trends for you wherever. Wherever you're at Um, especially locally, cause I can do it street by street, because I've been selling houses here for 18 years.

Speaker 2: 9:33

It's Rowena Patton, by the way, all-star powerhouse brokered by EXP. You can call us 24 seven. You don't have to be live on the radio. We've got receptionists standing by 24-7, 828-333-4483. You can give your zip code there, you can give your address, your email, and we can email the report to you. I might not be able to do it to Monday at this point. But everybody's out showing houses, listing houses. It's happy listing season right now, pretty much again anywhere in the country. So that's just inventory alone. If the inventory has gone up, that's a leading indicator.

Speaker 2: 10:08

Now when is that going to hit you? Let's say you put your house on the market today and let's say when we look at and we can also look at days on market for your zip code, let's say I'm finding on average right now it's about 40 to 45 days and again sorry, I always have to put this disclaimer in there is no average. If you're a bit further out in the boonies, if your house needs some work, you know, if, if, if, then it's going to take longer. It could take six months If it's absolutely perfect.

Speaker 2: 10:38

We undervalue it just a little bit. We might get two offers in and it might bid up right and it might go in three days, especially if it's under that $350,000 mark. Why? Because a lot more people can afford that. It's probably 80%. 90% of the population are under there, except you know, our average price point in downtown Asheville right now is between $500,000 and $600,000, depending on what street you're on. That's a lot of money. So a lot less people can afford that. So your sweet spot is up to that 350, 400 mark and of course, if you're 250 or 300, which is kind of rare here now that will fly off the shelf Unless.

Speaker 2: 11:15

Again, you know, maybe you don't have heating, maybe you don't have a heat source. Yes, really you'd be amazed, the houses that are out there that need so much work. So that's just inventory alone. If we want to, we can also look at inventory surplus and deficit. That's an interesting one. Sounds like a whole lot of big jargony terminology there, but that's great for investors who are looking Sale inventory growth. So we're looking there. We've got a number for you that's the year over year growth rate in the areas for sale inventory According to a specific source. We pull from Realtorcom, zillow, the MLS, all kinds of different places, but we're aggregating all those numbers to show trends, which is very, very important.

Speaker 2: 11:56

Price cut I want to talk about this one for a minute before we delve into your questions Again. 828-240-9962. If you'd like me to do it specifically for your friend who lives in a certain zip, I'll go through the numbers for you. Obviously, your friend doesn't want to call in because they don't want to announce to the whole world what's happening in their zip code. Maybe, unless it's good news, as a seller, maybe you're a buyer because, honestly, if prices are more likely to come down in that zip code, that's great news for a buyer. It just depends on which side of the aisle are you on. You know, it's like watching the case this week. Are you a Republican or are you a Democrat? Because if you're a Democrat, you were cheering yesterday and the day before, and if you are Republican, you are not cheering. Right, it just depends on are you a buyer, are you a seller? Is it a buyer's market in your zip code? I can also tell you that, based on these figures, you know are you a buyer or you're a seller.

Speaker 2: 12:53

So when we look at price cuts, price cuts I always think are really, really important. Here's why. So you've got 100 homes in a zip code that are for sale, we get a score on this. So there's a baseline score and if you have 20 of those getting a price cut, that's, you know, one in five homes. If you've got 40 of those getting a price cut, that's a lot more. If you've got 50 of those getting a price cut, that's 50% of the homes. Is it obvious why that number's important If people in that zip code are getting antsy. That's why it's zip to zip, it's neighborhood to neighborhood, it's really street to street. It's what did your neighbor next door do If half of the people are having price cuts and last year and the year before in this month? Why is the month important? Because we're kind of in peak listing season. Now it's June 1st today. Happy June 1st everybody. Can you believe it's June Randy.

Speaker 2: 13:57

Incredible, I'm telling you, isn't it bizarre? So we're in June already, not everywhere, but in most places in the country. This is kind of peak listing season. In fact, if anything, we've already crested the peak of the listing season July, august, september. You know kids are going back to school in September. We've got about eight weeks left. That doesn't mean to say we don't sell houses. After that it tends to get a little bit slower and because we're in an election year it may slow down even more. So if you've got 50% now of people cutting their price right, we're on June 1st let's say they've been listed just a short time and they're waiting out another. I'm going to say 60 days, because if they're having a price cut, it may be either that they just really want to sell and they realize they're not getting any showings at the price they're at, or I don't know. The kids are in Florida and they're hearing what's going on in the marketplace. They realize they're listening to me, they're listening to a lot of other smart economists that aren't even to do with housing. They're just looking at the economy saying we're going to go into something of a recession. It goes up, it goes down.

Speaker 2: 15:05

Clément Juglar, 1860, set the pattern 1860. It hasn't changed much ever since Seven to 11 year cycle. We've crested already. We were four years overdue. Prices are likely to come down over the next three and a half to five and a half years. Are there exception markets to that? Very few and, by the way, asheville is not one of them yes, there I said it, neither is Hendersonville or anywhere around us, especially as we have a lot of shadow inventory from new homes, thousands of new homes that have been built that are out there that are not on the MLS. So that's skewing all of the numbers. And those are new homes. New homes can easily compete, even though they're brand new and sometimes they're inexpensively built compared to your home. That's brick and 1975 and you know blah, blah, blah. But new homes can very easily compete against your home, even if it's been remodeled. So you've listed now and you're going to wait it out 60 days that's June, july. So you're going to have a contract on August 1st.

Speaker 2: 16:04

Everybody with me so far Half the homes have had price cuts. You know you're suddenly going to go under contract, which means you're going to close, ie get your cash, get your cashola, on August 1st. That's, if everything goes perfectly, when you close. You've been reducing your price. Now Chances are you're going to keep reducing your price, right?

Speaker 2: 16:27

This is 50% of a certain zip codes. There are plenty of zip codes that are at 50%, by the way, all around the country and higher than that, reducing their price. In other words, people are ready to get out. They don't want to chase the market down. Chasing the market down means we're at the beginning now of maybe they'll only reduce 5%, maybe they'll reduce 10%, maybe they'll reduce 15%. The economists are saying more than that. Last time it was about 32% across the country, so everyone's going oh, it won't do that because of you know, that was all about the banks and yada, yada, yada, yeah. But guess what? Banks have really eased up over the last few years. A lot of mortgages have been made. Not only that, we've been selling.

Speaker 2: 17:08

When I say we, the buyers out there, have been buying houses many times overpriced for the last two or three years. Just two short years ago, there were all these multiple offers with a thing called an appraisal contingency or appraisal gap. That meant that people would pay 10, 20, 50, $100,000 over the list price. Do you think those houses might be overpriced in a year as the market's going down for the next three and a half to five and a half years Because you believed the common narrative that houses always go up in value. Actually, both statements are right, because if you waited out 10 years seven to 11 years right? If you waited out to that next data point, your house price may have added 20%. It may have even doubled, but we're talking about now, in the next three and a half to five and a half years, right? So both statements are correct.

Speaker 2: 18:04

Do you want to buy now in a zip code where 50% of the people are reducing their prices, or do you want that information so you can make your most intelligent offer? If you're selling right now in that zip code, give us a call. 828-333-4483. I will produce a report for you on your zip code. You can do it privately. I know why a lot of you aren't calling in because you don't want me to out your zip code on the radio. It was great when they were all going up, right? It's like well, there we go, we can tell everybody they're going up. And I'm going to do a few of these in a minute where we look at Black Mountain when were our callers in from Black Mountain and Allentown, pennsylvania, and I am so sorry, linda, I've forgotten where you're at. She's in Raleigh.

Speaker 2: 18:51

She's in Raleigh, thank you, so we've got Raleigh. She didn't say where in. So when you call in guys, I want you to say your zip code, because Raleigh's a really big area and Raleigh's happening differently across the different zip codes. Some of the markets are a buyer's market now, whereas some of the markets are a seller's market. So it's very important to know where your actual zip codes are.

Speaker 2: 19:15

Allentown, pennsylvania I know the zip code for that, so I can do that one. I will do Raleigh as well. And Pete in Black Mountain. Black Mountain is a specific zip code, so I can do that one as well. Of course I can do Raleigh and like throw some in this zip code in that zip code, in this zip code, in this zip code, but it's much more helpful if at least we can confine it to a zip code. As we know, even within zips it changes as well. Shall as well. Shall I just stop saying the disclaimers, randy, because I'm getting boring about disclaimers at this point. Yeah, skip them. Yeah, skip them. Okay, I figured.

Speaker 2: 19:49

So let's go back to our timeline. So we have a hundred people in a certain zip code and I feel like I'm doing a school test now and 50% of them are doing a price drop. They are going to close on August 1st. So let's say, prices around the country now are averaging around again. There's no average. Right In LA, it's going to be 1.5 million here, depending on the zip code. It's going to be somewhere between 400 and 600 right now, depending on the zip code you're in and which town you're in and what street you're on, frankly, and how new your house is and you know whether it needs a lot of modifications or it's fully remodeled or it's a brand new house built to very high specs All those things affect. That's why the NAR settlements like, oh, we don't need real estate agents anymore, okay, have at it. You probably know that if you get a great real estate agent, we have a lot of information, a lot of intelligent information that we can give you.

Speaker 2: 20:45

Now, if you feel like you can research all of this on your own fantastic, listen to the show, go through all the ones that I've done and I'll send you a report for free, with no obligation, and then go and do you for sale by owner. I'm really fine with that. I know how much value I add and how much more quickly I can get your home sold and how much money I can get more money I can get for you. I can show you all the stats on that. So now we've got people who are listed. There's a hundred of them in a zip code. 50 of them have done price cuts and they're at that average price point of 400. Of course, you know, I'm just I'm doing the disclaimer again, I'm throwing it out from the hip. So at at 400, given that they're doing price cuts, they're going to close at, let's say, 375. Effectively, for half of that zip code. Now we have pushed down the median slash average price. Those two are different things. But to 375 instead of 400. Does that make sense? Yeah.

Speaker 2: 21:43

So if I could do math that quickly, okay, you'll win a trivia prize if you can call in and tell me what percentage that is.

Speaker 2: 21:49

Just because I can work it out, obviously, but it's $25,000 that we've lost there. You may go at $350 because you've been reducing prices that whole time. Now we're in August already by the time those deeds get recorded and everything else. Those deeds are going to affect people that are now under contract, right? So the next month and the month after that. So now we're in September, october, november. So for a lot of people, let's, let's just place it on October. In other words, you're listed now, or you list next month, or you list the month after. It's going to hit your comps. Now why are your comps important? Your house is listed and it's now finally under contract.

Speaker 2: 22:31

Bob from New York has bought your house and they're trying to get a loan on your house. Again, this could be anywhere in the country. Bob's trying to get a loan on your house. Some people pay cash, but guess what? They're going to get an appraisal too. So what happens when they're trying to get a loan?

Speaker 2: 22:47

The bank orders an appraisal. The bank wants to make sure the value of the house is okay. They don't want to put their money at risk. That's why they do an appraisal, and this is where all the comparables come from. It's an appraiser. Real estate agents can give you. They can't give you a home value, by the way, we're not allowed to do that. Did you know that we don't give a home value? We give you a likely listing price. We are not licensed as an appraiser. An appraiser can give you a home value. So here we are. Bob from New York wants to buy your home in your certain zip code, wherever you're at. And now those October quotes from people who are listing now or are listed now those same comparables that have been pushed down 5%, 10%. Can you do the math?

Speaker 2: 23:33

It is 5% If it's 50,000, that's a little easier. Right, 50,000 over 400. How many times does 50,000?

Speaker 2: 23:42

into four so, uh, four, that's eight, it's eight percent. Okay, yeah, I think I'm right. If I'm not, I'm sorry, don't sue me. So it's about eight percent. Eight percent drop that. That wouldn't be that strange, right? Let's say it's only. Let's say it's eight percent, because those are the figures we just worked on. As you can imagine, with the election coming up, with inflation, with what we're expecting anyway, we're already four years overdue for a market correction, which is normal. It's been going on since 1860. We don't have to say it's a perfect storm or the sky is falling or anything else. Why would that be so strange? For a $400,000 house to be the average, now to be $375,000 or $350,000? That doesn't even sound that odd, does it with what's happening?

Speaker 2: 24:30

Not at all, and if we're all old enough to remember it. Last time around, back in 2018, 2019, at the bottom, that's what happened. It went down over 30%. So now we're only saying 8%. Right, we're only saying 8%. So those closings are filed away and then the appraisers look at the MLS. They go, oh, what's closed out here? And they're looking at prices.

Speaker 2: 24:54

So it's a high probability that your house now, if it's worth 400, with the scenario that we've just described, that is our most likely scenario and I can give you all the facts for this. I'm going to show you Raleigh, black Mountain and Allentown here in just a second. And again, you drive this, not me. I'm not trying to make up these figures. Quite frankly, I can't drive these figures up or down, and that's not what I want to do. If the figures are going up, I'll help you sell your house and get the most for it. If they're coming down, I'll help you prepare your house in the right way and give you four different ways. At least we can do a traditional listing. We can do what's called a certified pre-owned listing All great things where you pay for at least the inspection up front, and I can prove how it drops out 33% of the time all around the country when you don't do the inspection. This reduces the dropout rate to 7% and you've all heard Certified Pre-Owned before.

Speaker 2: 25:53

If you've listened to the show. If you haven't, you want me to explain this to you? I'll do it in person. Call and ask me to give you a call 828-333-4483 828-333-4483. We've got people standing by 24 7. You can call them right now. Give your name, your address and say I need road to call me about selling my house or to send me a home value report on this zip code. But I need your email, a good email, and I need your zip code. You're in. I'll do a report for you. As long as I don't get more than 10 this week, I'll do a report for the first 10 that call that number and ask for it anywhere in the country. It's perfectly confidential.

Speaker 2: 26:32

I'm not going to, you know, go out there and say, oh, susan asked me for a home value report and ha ha ha, her house is going up in value or down in value. I'm not going to do that. It will be private to you, I promise I'll just email it to you and we can discuss it if you like, or I can go through on Zoom with you or in person, however you'd like to do it, because chances are, overall, if you've got a lot of price cuts now in your zip code, that is a leading indicator it is June, june, july, august, september, october for five months time as to what is going to happen to your home price. I am telling you now and don't go. Oh, so this is what happens. Honestly, randy, this is what happens so commonly. Well, we'll just wait till next year and see what happens.

Speaker 2: 27:18

Guys, economic cycle Look it up Seven to 11 years. It's not me saying this. Clement juglas said it in 1860. And why do I feel the need to keep telling you? Because, honestly, I'm doing. I'm coming out to a house a day right now. I did it all last week. Um, I got all clear on the cancer pet scan a week ago last friday. Did I tell you that, randy?

Speaker 4: 27:41

Yes, you did, and I'm so happy for you yeah it's sort of bizarre.

Speaker 2: 27:44

So I got a whole new lease of life, which is absolutely awesome. So I've been doing a listing a day all last week. I have three, or I've got two spots left for next week, so 828-333-4483. Let me come out now and I'll tell you what not to do, because most of you are going. I'm so embarrassed. You know, I've got. I don't have baseboards, or I just put new windows in. I don't have trim around them, or I've got a dog and he barks a lot and we work all the time. You know we're having trouble making ends meet right now and we just don't have time to clean up. I don't care, I can see through all of that and you know, if you need to be out now, I've got programs for you. If you can wait 10 years, your house is going to be worth as much I've got. So I'm meeting somebody next week. My heart goes out to them.

Speaker 2: 28:31

One of them unfortunately had cancer when I met them about eight years ago and I said listen, hold on to your home. It was. It was a non-recurring, you know. The outcome looked very good. Unfortunately, it's massetized now and one of them has moved back to another area and the other one is just holding out waiting to move back. I'm not giving any names or anything here, obviously, so I'm not, you know, voiding any confidentiality and I have been told I can talk about it. So you know the house is worth way more than when I went out there eight years ago and that person called me and said you were so good when you came out and you told me not to sell my house because we didn't need to at the time, and now I'm going to make about $300,000 more on my home.

Speaker 2: 29:12

You have to feel good about that they were so happy, and that's what I'll do for you. I'm not about coming out and listing your home as saying, oh, you've got to sell it now. No, I'll tell you to hold on for 10 years. Now I spoke to an 83-year-old last week and I won't tell you the curse word that he said to me, saying how old he would be in 10 years and he wants out. And now?

Speaker 2: 29:34

Well, those are different strategies, right, and the funny thing is it doesn't mean to say you'll make any less money. It depends on what you're doing. If you're going somewhere else and you're renting for a while because you don't know the market anymore in Allentown, pennsylvania, maybe you're going back to be by the kids Then you could rent for a year and let prices bump down a little bit. If it looks like that's what's doing in that zip code and there is no magic wand on this, well, you know. However, we do know what goes up must come down, right, and it's been happening since 1860. So, unless there's some kind of massive brain fart in economic cycles that changes everything from 1860, these are pretty good figures to go by. So let's look at the price cuts in Allentown, pennsylvania or wherever you're going, to see what that looks like, because if there's price cuts coming down the hike now, you might want to wait that five months because that's going to start reducing the prices. Can I guarantee it? No, but why not rent for a while? By the way, I can also look at the figures. What's the percentage of rent versus the percentage of the average mortgage? What does that look like In any zip code you're going to anywhere in the country? This stuff is amazing, guys. It really is. So I'd like to get to Linda. I'm just going to hop in with Linda in a second and Linda has been on my home search list for a long, long time and she's been watching the market here and one of her children lives here.

Speaker 2: 31:03

So she's very open to the area that she wants to live in and she's in Raleigh I don't have. She didn't give me when she called me and when she first signed up at mountainhomehuntcom. So mountainhomehuntcom that's another way to get her. She can just click on contact mountainhomehuntcom. Most of way to get us, you can just click on contact mountainhomehuntcom. Most of the people calling in have been looking for a home or looking for the value of their current home anywhere in the country on that website, mountainhomehuntcom, for many, many years. Linda's been on it for an awful long time in Raleigh, so she unfortunately lost her husband and, yeah, a kiddo's dad she calls him kiddo, it's so cute and he got married here and she's ready to move to the area she doesn't need to be within.

Speaker 2: 31:53

I'm thinking back to all my notes that I have on Linda's file that I've had for years as she's been looking here. This is how long we help people for and that's why they end up calling us to help, even if they're in. I just got one in Minnesota. If you've got a house in Minnesota and you're listening, we have people listening all over the country that's looking to move here. Or you're just listening in Minnesota and you've decided not to move here.

Speaker 2: 32:15

I can put you with the number one agent, radio and TV experts. That's who we get the radio show through. I've got people that I've known on there now for 12 years. That's how long the show's been running. That's how long all these top agents they're in the top 1% of every market they're in. They know what they're doing.

Speaker 2: 32:30

They're going to give you the kind of information I'm giving to you. They're operating at a different level from somebody that got their real estate license last week or that has done more importantly, you may have gotten it last week and really know what you're doing. However, you probably need to have sold more than 20 homes last year to keep that experience going. That's not many, by the way, I did 42 in my first year in real estate, not knowing what the heck I was doing. So you know. So I will put you with the right person, wherever you're at. So Linda, again, has been on the real estate website looking for homes for a long, long time, and now she's going through this. So, good morning, linda. How are you doing today? Tell me about where you're at, hey it's Linda.

Speaker 3: 33:16

Good morning, ro. I live in Raleigh and I am wondering what that nifty tool you use says is going to happen in Raleigh. I know you do something like the forecast and price cuts, as I am thinking of selling and heading over there to be by the kiddo. He just got married and we lost his dad a year ago.

Speaker 2: 33:33

Well, first off, my love. I am so sorry I won't mention his name because you didn't, and I'm not going to mention the name of the kiddo either because you didn't Give me permission by, you know, saying whatever is out there that I can use. But I'm, you know, I'm going to keep all this very confidential. Obviously, if you don't want it live on the radio, you can just say you're calling in for a friend 828-240-9962. Or we've got people standing by 24-7. Seriously, they're on at 2 o'clock in the morning 828-333-4483. Maybe you do the night shift 828-333-4483. Just make sure you leave an email. You know you can explain your situation. If you want to, I'll definitely call you back. Or you can just say listen, I. I just want to report. I don't want to talk to that annoying woman. I can't stand her English accent. I just can't talk to her anymore. Okay, I'm. We're looking at Raleigh. So unfortunately, I don't have the zip code for Raleigh. I do of all this time I've only got Raleigh in on there because I don't know. Maybe Linda didn't want me to know exactly where she lives, maybe she thought I'd stalk her or something. I don't know. But, linda, give me a call on your actual address. Obviously, I'm not going to do that live on the show because I don't want to put it out there, because there are weird people who are stalkers out there. I am going to look at the neighborhood around Shaw University. If you're in Raleigh, you know where that is. Raleigh is about, depending on which part of Raleigh about four hours from us. I do have the top 2% agent there that I work with all the time and she is standing by waiting to take your call, linda, anywhere in Raleigh. So that's the good news there. She is amazing, amazing lady and amazing team.

Speaker 2: 35:19

So I'm looking at the zip code 27601, which is Raleigh. I'm going to give you the main figures in here. So the home price forecast is a number. I won't go into it in depth. I'm happy to do that on the phone, but 50 is the baseline, if you like. It's actually a very nice way of looking at the home price forecast because when we do it by months of inventory it's sort of confusing. Like six months in inventory is the baseline. That all sounds like real to talk to me. So when you say 50 and the baseline is 50, that tells us is it a buyer's market or a seller's market. So 27601,. This might surprise you.

Speaker 2: 36:00

The home price forecast is 40. That means, according to the home price forecast, we're expecting prices to go down. Recent appreciation is at 50, which is about average, quite honestly, let me bring all those up and I'm going to tell you what they're at. 40 is actually quite low. However, in the investor forecast, it's strong right Because, from an investor perspective, it's fairly safe. So when we're looking at the investor forecast, it's strong right Because from an investor perspective, it's fairly safe. So when we're looking at home price forecast, it's the momentum.

Speaker 2: 36:27

I don't know if you want all this detail. You probably just want the numbers. Quite honestly, it's based on fundamental stats like appreciation, inventory, price cuts and days on market. So for those, the price forecast, what it's doing is it's taking all those figures and looking at what's happened in the last few years. I'll give you an example of what this looks like.

Speaker 2: 36:47

So in 2017, we're at 59. In other words, a seller's market. 50 is the baseline. Once we drop below 50, it's a buyer's market. And then in 2018, we went down to 48. So that's basically balanced just below the 50. Then in 2019, we went down to 48. So that's basically balanced just below the 50. Then in 2019, we went down to 35. Again, we're talking about that one zip code. And then 2020, we bounced back and went to 54. It's kind of balanced. It's just four over the 50. So, in other words, we went into a seller's market. So 2017, seller's market 2018, basically balanced. 2019, definitely a buyer's market, just before COVID, or sometimes COVID, depending where you're at and as it was rolling out. Am I right there? 2019? Have I forgotten so soon? That's correct.

Speaker 2: 37:35

Yeah, so it was the end of 2019 was COVID? Covid has a big effect on this. So then we're at 54 for 2020. So, balanced market. Basically, it's a little bit you know, slightly a seller's market, but I wouldn't really count that One piece of data can floor it. 2021, pretty much the same thing. Oh, 2022, that's when we were getting all the multiple offers and a lot of you are still in that mindset.

Speaker 2: 38:00

74 home price forecast. It's going to go through the roof. Oh my gosh, because it was going through the roof. That was the trend. That is a massive climb. 74. Guess what? We're at 49. So technically at 49, sorry, in 2023. Now we're at 40. 40 is most definitely a buyer's market according to these figures.

Speaker 2: 38:21

And even if you don't believe the figures, look at the trend. The trend is what's very, very, very important? The rents are going through the roof. The valuations are all over the place, if we go down to that same zip code. So this is for you, linda, again, get me your actual zip code and I can help a lot more with that.

Speaker 2: 38:40

Obviously, let's go down to I want to go price cuts, because that's the one, honestly, I love to look at. Okay, so let me click on that, okay, so price cuts back in 2019 are at one in five. We're doing about one in 10 right now. So out of all the listings that are out there, it's actually more than that. We're doing. Over one in 10 has a price cut. That's a leading indicator, right, it's above the line. So that one's interesting.

Speaker 2: 39:16

Let's look on days on market and a lot of this is historic. It's where is the trend going the days on market. So that one's interesting. Let's look on days on market and a lot of this is historic. It's where is the trend going the days on market. So this is showing a vibrant market, right, and it's hard to understand because I just said the forecast is down. Well, that doesn't. That's not what's happening now. Remember the timescale we did earlier the price based on price cuts. Now, that isn't going to come through in your market until September, october, right, because that's when the houses that are having price cuts now they're going to go under contract. It takes four or six weeks for them to close. Maybe there's issues on the inspection, something else. It closes, right, and you're not going to. If you put it on the market, you're not going to sell it tomorrow. So September, october, is when those deeds get recorded, and the newest deeds that sell the newest prices that are recorded are the ones that are going to bear. If it's like your house, those are the ones that are going to bear most weight for the appraiser and, trust me, banks you probably know this.

Speaker 2: 40:15

Banks have really tightened up. They've been tightening up for the last year or two. Banks know it's coming. The interest rates are high so that so many loan officers have lost their money, lost their jobs, so many bank branches have closed down. Go look it up. There's a leading indicator, guys. And why is that important? Because they've really tightened up. That means they're looking very, very carefully appraisals. Why? Because banks don't want to give a mortgage, and that's, by the way, that's what we've been doing For the last two or three years. We have been giving mortgages to people who are outbidding All those poor buyers. Right, those are now the owners of the houses.

Speaker 2: 40:55

So, let's say, 2019, when things were going through the roof that's five years ago, obviously or even 2022, when things were getting two whole years ago multiple offers. People were overpaying all the time. Well, the trend since then, in the last two years, has been down. As I've been saying. We crested here 18 months ago. This fall it will be two years from when we crested. We're bumping along the top.

Speaker 2: 41:19

Many markets are seeing it decline. A lot of zip codes here are seeing it decline. Just depends where you're at. Again, 828-333-4483, if you just tuned in, get your home report to your zip code. If you're anywhere local I know the markets really well I can do it down to your actual street. I have people, top agents, all around the country standing by to do the same thing for you. I'll run a report wherever you're at and send it to you, and then we can not just do it by zip code. Do it to your house and hone in and really hone in on where you're at and what your value would look at. Of course we can't do any. You know that's what people don't like about Zestimates.

Speaker 2: 41:58

Guess what Zillow hasn't been in your house. How does Zillow know what the condition of your house is? Zillow says it's 450. How does Zillow know whether your house is? I don't know. It's got no heat. The floors are all different. It hasn't had a remodeled kitchen since 1975, and the house next door has been fully remodeled. They've changed all the floors. They've spent $100,000 on the house. Obviously, the value is different. Zillow doesn't know that. That's why we need to get in your house.

Speaker 2: 42:29

We don't care if you think the dog's going to eat us. Put the dog in a bedroom Like we don't even need to see every room. Show us a picture of that room. Maybe, I don't know, the cats have peed downstairs, like a neighbor's cat got in, or the squirrels got in and peed all over the ceiling. We don't care. We can tell you what needs doing and we even have investors that will make a cash offer now and you don't need to do any of that. I've got people that you know need to go into hospice, or I've got people that need to go into assisted living, whereby they want their money now. They don't want to wait for you know to. We have an investor that will lend you the money to do all that work and you'll get a lot more money for your home. You may not want to wait for that. You just want you know 90% of it now and get your check later and off you go like.

Speaker 2: 43:14

We have so many programs to make this right for you. Whatever your situation is, you may have a brand new home. That's $2 million or $3 million, that's perfect. That's great too. We'll show you all the additional marketing, gosh, if we can have the programs to run that have all of this additional marketing on them, imagine what we do with a straightforward house that needs beautiful drone photography and great pictures. I've been doing those for years, guys. I can do those standing on my head, sorry, and I love to do those. That is absolutely wonderful.

Speaker 2: 43:46

If you have a $3 million house, it's a bit more challenging right now, by the way, because $3 million houses, even $800,000 houses aren't flying off the shelf. Even $600,000 houses aren't flying off the shelf. You need somebody who's got expertise and marketing behind them. Even if your house is perfect and two years ago all your neighbors were flying off the shelf, generally that isn't the case now almost everywhere in the country. There's a lot of pockets in the Northeast who exhaust that, obviously. So, linda, I hope that helped you. In 27601, obviously we can dive in. That's raleigh, north carolina. We can dive in a little bit more. Gosh, it takes a long time to go through these prices. Randy, we've got 10 minutes left to do everybody else, so let's go to. I want to do a local one here. So, uh, this is actually pete, who lives in black mountain. I've spoken to him before on the radio. He has listened a whole bunch of time. Hey, pete, how you doing? Tell me your story good morning roe.

Speaker 4: 44:47

It's pete. I live in black mountain, just so you know. They will carry me out of here in a box, but I am wondering if it is time for one of my grandkids to purchase here, or wait a bit, what do you think? My English girl in the mountains love listening to you every week.

Speaker 2: 45:08

Oh, he's my sweetie Pete in Black Mountain. Thank you so much. Well, obviously you want to get I know the grandkids you're talking about that you want to get over here. That is is lovely and I totally get it. So you know, what would be interesting is to know a bit more about and just so you know, if you want to call in and leave this or just say, hey, I need Ro to call me back because you don't want to talk to our receptionist. It's all confidential because your story helps. Knowing what your intention is really helps. So the first question I would ask pete if, um, he hadn't dropped off the line here right now, can we get pete back? Uh, yes we can.

Speaker 2: 45:46

Let's see if we can get pete back it's uh.

Speaker 4: 45:49

No, no, I can't, no, I can't, I'm sorry okay okay.

Speaker 2: 45:53

So, um, pete, here's the thing.

Speaker 2: 45:55

It would really help call back in if you're still listening. I know you all turn your radios off so it's not reverberating when you call in. So where your grandkids coming from is very important, because if your grandkid is renting there now and wants to rent here, maybe he can stay with you for a while. Maybe your house is big enough for him to stay with you for a while. You may not want that, but they may just be looking to move here. So it's the same thing for Michael in Allentown, pennsylvania. If I've got time, I'll jump over there as well. So it's all about looking about exactly where you're going or whether you're open to different areas, right? So, pete, I think that you want him to be in Black Mountain close to you, that you want him to be in Black Mountain close to you. So let's have a quick look at the numbers in Black Mountain and then I'll go over to Allentown, pennsylvania. Remember, I can do this for you any single zip code in the country and I can get it all down to the street where you live, including your neighborhood too. This is so fun. This is the fun bit of real estate for me, honestly, because I can give you, if I can give you this information.

Speaker 2: 47:01

You've all got different scenarios right. Some of you are just looking to move down the street. Some of them you are, you know, intelligent and you know that you've got a whole bunch of equity in your house. You would rather take some of it out to your house because you're in your 60s maybe, or your 50s, and you know now is the time to do it, because you don't want to wait another 10 years for it to be at the top again with all the fat forecasts that we're seeing in most places. So you want to get out now. And what does that look like and what do we need to do to get you out now? So it depends on your strategy and what you're doing.

Speaker 2: 47:35

If you're pulling out money and you've got, you know, maybe you're right-sizing. Well, here's right-sizing means you're going to buy a house. That's less money. If you're in a $600,000 house right now and I can, maybe you there's just one of you and you're thinking about going into a condo, for example. Maybe you're in your 60s or 70s and you don't want the hassle of maintenance anymore. Well, that condo is going to be half the price. So you're releasing let's say it's $600,000, $300,000 in equity. Well, the chances are, if prices go down for the next three and a half to five and a half years, you'll be releasing less equity. I mean, are you losing money? Depends on how you look at it. I guess you didn't have that money in the first place.

Speaker 2: 48:19

However, if you're ready to make the move, you need to make it sooner rather than later. Is the point there? If you don't care and maybe you're 15, you're like, whatever, I'll do it when I'm 16. You can hold off in your house. Great, you'll get twice as much, and that's what I'm going to tell you, based on your strategy.

Speaker 2: 48:31

So here we are, looking at Black Mountain days on market, and again, this is average. Right Depends on the street. You're on on market and again, this is average. Right depends on the street. You're on the condition of your house. Everything else very interesting.

Speaker 2: 48:41

So days on market 2021, 2022, um were down at 22. The the baseline is uh about uh 49. The average is 49 across since 2017 to 2024. So that's our baseline. We're at that baseline now. However, last year it was sitting a little bit longer, so it's come down a little bit. Based on June last year. They're actually selling a little bit faster. That would be another reason to say go ahead and put it on the market now.

Speaker 2: 49:17

But your days on market guys are going to be a month and a half right and then you go into contract. So it's going to take us. I can get you seriously. I've had them on in a day before but you're probably not in that much of a rush. So let's say we get you on by June 10th. I've got two spots left next week. Call 828-333-4483. I've got other agents who can come see you as well. Me personally, I have two spots left. I've already got three appointments set up next week.

Speaker 2: 49:45

So if you list it on June 10th based on these figures in Black Mountain, of course we're looking for someone to move here right now. But this is the same way, if indeed his grandson is going to buy in that area. So if you're on the market, for what is this about? 50 days, let's say two months, just to make it easy July, august, that's the end of August. You are going to close Based on the figures that are out there. Obviously this could change depending on your you know condition of your house, what street you're on in Black Mountain. So you're going to close in August.

Speaker 2: 50:17

Now you can do if you want longer than that. You can do a thing called you may want to move before that because of schools or something somewhere else. You can do a thing called seller possession after closing. Again, I have all these tools for you. You need to tell me what you need, right If you're going for, if there's an urgency in terms of staying in the house because we just start in school, let's get you 30 days, 60 days in the house after it's closed. We can do that. We've got programs that can do that. We've got regular old buyers that will come in and give you that time. Right, if you're selling your house in Black Mountain right now, that will take you out to September, october, and then you can move at the end of October and we'll confine you another house and maybe you're not putting in a contingent offer on another one because you've already got the money out of your house. So that could be a very good strategy there.

Speaker 2: 51:04

Maybe what I'll do is do one zip code next week looking at all these different strategies. So vote on your most popular 828-333-4483. I'll look at all the calls I get this week. You can call 24-7 guys. All you need to do is give your address, give your email it may be in there already, which is great and say I want a home report for my zip code. I will take the most popular zip code and do a full report across. You know as many scenarios as I can think of based on that zip code to help you out here. So let's look at price cuts, because that's always an interesting one. Inventory as percentage of houses, price cuts here we go. Price cuts in Black Mountain. Ooh, okay, remember I said this is the leading indicator I look at. So we were down at 5.6. So the listings out there wow, the listings out there, 5.6 of them had price cuts, right, so that's one in 20 had a price cut a whole year ago.

Speaker 1: 52:08

Does that make?

Speaker 2: 52:09

sense. So for every 20 listings out there and it was over three times that many in totality for the month or that point in time, it's not the month, sorry, the point in time. And this is June last year, right, we just flicked over to June. 23.5% right now, wow. And the inventory last year was 70. And the inventory this year is 85. In other words, the number of homes that are listed. So that tells you people are ready to sell the house, homes that are listed. So that tells you people are ready to sell the house. It also tells you the supply is as tipped up over the demand from a year ago. It also tells you that nearly one in four it was one in 20 just a year ago one in four homes have had a price cut. Why do you do a price cut? Listen, I've got lots of sellers. If your home hasn't shown and give you all the factors on this, just give me a call, 828-333-4483. All the factors on this are very, very important. You know? Why hasn't it sold there? So I hope that helps.

Speaker 2: 53:13

Michael, I'm so sorry we didn't get to you today. That is Michael in Allentown Pennsylvania. I will. You is Michael in Allentown Pennsylvania. I will. You can call in live if you want to. You're in Allentown. I've got all that. Thanks to Pete.

Speaker 1: 53:29

Thanks to Michael. Thanks for Linda. Hope that helped today. See you on the radio next week. This has been the Plain English Real Estate Show with Rowena Patton. Visit Rowena and post your questions at radioashvillecom or call her at 828-210-1648.