Cracking the Code of Housing Trends for Buyers and Investors

Uncover the heartbeat of the housing market with our latest episode, where we honor Memorial Day before navigating the complex landscape of real estate. As the commemoration fades, we pivot to property values fluctuating like ocean waves, with each zip code telling its unique tale. From the promising outlook in Illinois to the nuanced trends in North Carolina, I take you through a journey that's much more than numbers—it's about the rhythm of the market and making informed decisions. Whether you're buying your first home or investing for the future, this is the insight you've been seeking, tailored to your own backyard.

In the ever-changing real estate forecast, one thing stands clear: there's no universal trend to bank on. With special guest, retired financial advisor Mike Blanton, we tackle misconceptions and offer a hyper-localized perspective. As we analyze the current bounce back from the 2020 home scarcity, we provide a lifeline for listeners, offering personalized real estate reports for any zip code. And while we share a chuckle with Mike, rest assured, the advice remains rock solid, aimed to help you navigate the summertime selling season with finesse.

Wrapping up, we take a serene stroll through the 'blue zone' areas, where stability is king, and zoom into Asheville's bustling trends, where once modest prices now pale in comparison to today's valuations. If you're grappling with the idea of when to sell or ponder the benefits of holding onto a property, this episode is your guiding star. Tune in next week as we continue to unravel the complexities of real estate, always striving to help you make the most informed decisions on the Plain English Real Estate Show with Rowena Patton.

Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:00

This is the Plain English Real Estate Show with your host, rowena Patton, a show that focuses on the real estate market in terms you can easily understand. Call Rowena now. The number is 240-9962 or 1-800-570-9962. Now here's the English girl in the mountains, the agent that I would trust, rowena Patton agent that I would trust, rowena Patton.

Speaker 2: 0:31

Good morning, this is Rowena Patton. How are you all doing this morning, on this wonderful Memorial Day weekend? So happy to be here. And really, randy, let's talk for a minute.

Speaker 2: 0:39

What is Memorial Day? Because this is not Veterans Day. This is remembering those that are fallen, and I kind of like to tie it in and remember all those who have served as well. But Memorial Day is really about remembering the fallen and it's you know people are like you're English, what are you doing this at? Well, you know what.

Speaker 2: 0:59

I am a citizen and wherever you fell anywhere in the world that you fell, let's use our little time to remember you today, but particularly, of course, all of those Americans that fell during their service. Thank you also to all of you who served. Of course, my family members served, which is probably why I work with so many veterans and so keen on Memorial Day. And also, of course, we are endorsed by Tunnel to Towers, t2torg, the most amazing organization that pays off mortgages for fallen police, for fallen firefighters, for veterans that need a home that is modified and needs T2Torg. They sponsor us through the T2T CPO program, where we do full market value cash offers for veterans and everybody else for that matter. So really pretty cool organization, don't you think, randy?

Speaker 3: 2:09

amen and coming up on uh at 10 o'clock underway, just underway, a uh memorial day ceremony in brevard, right there on main street, during the White Squirrel Festival that's going on this weekend in Brevard and their Memorial Day ceremonies 10 o'clock Monday morning and then at Forest Lawn Memorial Park in Hendersonville at 11 o'clock Monday morning Memorial Day services, so and ceremonies and the laying of the wreath as we honor those who gave the ultimate sacrifice this weekend.

Speaker 2: 2:50

Wow, wow, and I'm guessing that's going on, you know, in many cities, of course around the country.

Speaker 2: 2:56

Of course there's a couple I know about, right, yeah absolutely that are local, and today we've got a pretty exciting show going on. It might be a bit depressing for some. I don't know. It depends if you're selling or buying a home. We are looking around the country where our price is crashing and where, well you know, if prices are crashing and you're an investor or you're a buyer, you are very happy right now. And where are you know? I'm not one of those agents that are like, oh, the sky is falling Because in some places the prices are going up Pretty amazing.

Speaker 2: 3:31

Hey, you can go to Rowena Patton on Facebook. I just actually posted a picture showing a heat map on there. So if you're looking at your state and, by the way, we're not doing this by state because we all know that doesn't mean anything Obviously if you're in one part of North Carolina, you might have prices going down. If you're in another part, they might be going up. Obviously, if you're in one part of Florida, florida is especially one to watch. Texas is especially one to watch, by the way, as is California as well. You can see on the map. Just go to Rowena Patton on Facebook. You will find it right there. Of course, I can share it with you. I am going to make a video on these state by state.

Speaker 2: 4:13

But, honestly, what's most important to you is your zip code. What I want you to do today call in at 800-570-9962. 800-570-9962. Give me your zip code and I will go in depth. If you want to give me your zip, or your town or your county or your state, I can do that too. Maybe you've got a house in another area, or maybe you're calling in for a friend, very happy to do that as well. You can just pretend you don't live there, if you want.

Speaker 2: 4:45

Of course, if you're a buyer, you want to know this. Now, here's the thing and you know there are all kinds of caveats on this, because if you're a buyer, going into a zip code where the prices are likely to decrease, it's all likely, right? We can't, we don't know what's going to happen in a year. However, looking at all the historical data and I have some incredible tools now where I can do this looking at the historical data, what is most likely to happen? So what is it that we're looking at here in the home price forecast scores, whether they're going up or they're going down. We are looking at inventory how much inventory is there? But not just the inventory. Now, how has that changed in the last few years? And we pull a figure based on that, not only that price reductions. So where are the homes listed right now that are seeing price reductions that have increased dramatically from a year ago, from five years ago? We look at the history and say what normally happens in this zip code, in this city, in this state.

Speaker 2: 5:49

It's very, very, very clever it's absolutely in my mind.

Speaker 2: 5:53

I paid a lot of money for this, so you're all getting the benefit of it. Now it's a little harder on the radio, I understand, because you can't see the pictures, but you can see the big picture of the states. Just go to Rowena Patton on Facebook. I think there's three of me in the whole wide world on Facebook so you can find them there, so you know that at least shows you the state. But we can do a deep dive on any of these. Again, give us a call with your zip code 828-240-9962, if you're calling in locally or if you're calling in from Mars or anywhere at all 800-570-9962. Give me your zip and we will do a deep dive. What do you think, Randy?

Speaker 3: 6:38

I just think you look great, you're just talking some real good stuff. This morning.

Speaker 2: 6:44

Well, you know why you want me to give you the results of my PET scan yesterday.

Speaker 3: 6:47

I want to hear it all because I see you glowing. This morning I went for a PET scan yesterday.

Speaker 2: 6:52

If you don't know what a PET scan is, that is all about primarily a cancer test, because they thought I had cancer on top of the heart failure. You can probably tell I don't think I got the heart failure either. Thank you Jesus. There's been a lot of people praying over me. I can tell you?

Speaker 3: 7:07

Yeah, we have been.

Speaker 2: 7:08

So the cancer I had and I've had two cancer diagnoses and one back 10 years ago where I had major surgery and I didn't have cancer. So here I am again and I don't have cancer. I love it. I've waited all week to find that out. I'm a little high energy this morning, especially as I'm looking at all these prices, right? So let's go.

Speaker 3: 7:29

I'm with you and that is such great news.

Speaker 2: 7:35

It's such great news. So the shout out to I about felt so the shout out to the pulmonary doc. His name is Patton. How funny is that.

Speaker 1: 7:42

My name is Patton P-A-T-T-O-N.

Speaker 2: 7:44

My last name is Patton, and when he told me yesterday I about fell off the chair. I mean, really it was such a relief. I had no idea how stressed I was, and for anybody who's been through this, how stressed I was and for anybody who's been through this, you know how stressful it is both ways, whether it's a yay or a nay, you know. And still some health issues there, apparently. But I don't believe it and I got my hands in the air and I think god was like you gotta pause for a minute yeah and look what he's done.

Speaker 2: 8:07

Now I'm like a seven. The last time I felt this well was when I was 17 and a sprinter which is very good already.

Speaker 2: 8:16

Let's get back to the figures, because that's the important bit. Today Randy's got a twinkling eye because he's so good that he's got me to come and yabber on on Saturdays again. Let's look, let's do a deep dive on North Carolina. So this is what I mean about. You can't just look at a state you all know that right. And you can't even just look at a state you all know that right. And you can't even just look at a town. So North Carolina overall is a home price forecast of 51. What does that mean? We're looking at recent appreciation. We're looking at days on market mortgage rates, the inventory, how many homes are out there? What price cuts have happened recently? But tell me honestly, guys, what does it mean when you're looking at North Carolina and it's got 51 on there? Well, 50 is balanced right. So we're in a balanced market. What have I been telling you now for the last year? We crested over a year ago in this market in Western North Carolina. We crested. That means we're bumping along the top right. So now, when you go city by city, it might be a different case.

Speaker 2: 9:21

Let me give you some other areas, because we have listeners. This is syndicated. You can listen anywhere in the country or anywhere else for that matter. Let's look at some places where the home price forecast is going up. These might surprise you. So Illinois is at a score of 60. Now again, we're looking at an entire state. If I delve in, I'll be able to find some in North Carolina that are expected to go up too. The other hot states where they're expected to go up, a lot of them are in the northeast. If you look at my heat map, just go to Rowena Patton on Facebook. You'll see that a lot of the red areas you're looking for the red areas, by the way, the red areas are increasing. The hotter red they are, the more they're increasing. So you may want to go have a look at that, rowena Patton on Facebook, just because I haven't posted it in the other places yet.

Speaker 2: 10:12

I was doing so much research this morning to get the figures as of today. You may want to go and have a look at that heat map so that we can delve in city by city for you, because just because I'm saying Illinois is on 60, if I delve into Illinois, for example, it looks like that's the hottest one in the entire area. If I start delving in by zip code, you will find a very different figure, right? So definitely a seller's market or a 60 up there. That's the home price forecast. If I look at home values, probably the same thing, because it's a seller's market, right? This is not what we're seeing in our local market, by the way, so let's do a little dig in there. Which zip, zip code do you think first, randy, where shall I go In North Carolina? Yeah, we're going for us right now 28792.

Speaker 2: 11:05

Got it. So the first thing I want to do actually is give you the state just to prove to you that state figures don't mean a whole lot, right? When we look at home value, I want to compare it to our figures here. Patrick did a great job last week looking at local figures. Yes, so if I look at North Carolina, for example, we're at 332 for the average home value. Do you know any homes you can buy here in Western North Carolina for that? If you've got a home that's around that value, it will fly off the shelf. We are definitely in that seller's market for that home value.

Speaker 2: 11:40

So you know, our figures show, and it's correct, that for North Carolina the average home value is $332. That's why the state figures don't mean anything, guys. Real estate is local. It's literally street to street, neighborhood to neighborhood, zip to zip. Right, so it doesn't mean anything. Why am I giving them to you To prove that fact? Because you have, you know, very famous people going on on radio shows and TV shows right now I won't call them out by name going things like home prices are going to skyrocket. Oh, really, I just want to call some. Can I say BS or not?

Speaker 3: 12:15

You can do that Okay.

Speaker 2: 12:17

I'm going to call some BS on that, because real estate doesn't skyrocket or collapse based on the USA. That is absolute nonsense. Can you put an average figure on it? Sure, Last time it crashed we went down across the country about 33%. Does that mean we went down 33% here in Western North Carolina? Actually we did, but in many places in the country no, because it's all about the bubble. How much do you increase? How much inventory is there? And that changes street to street, neighborhood to neighborhood, community to community, zip to zip. Give us a call, 828-240-9962 or 800-570-9962 if you want to do a deep dive into your zip.

Speaker 2: 13:04

Let's have a look at overvalued. Oh my gosh, Again we're doing North Carolina here. I know I just said that doesn't mean a whole lot. However, at the 333 figure, that's if you take all the values in North Carolina, put them in a part you know, shake them up and then go what's the average or what's the median? Ok, so overvalued we are showing in that mishy moshy part of all of North Carolina, we're showing 23.9 percent, nearly 24 percent overvalued, and that's at the 339 price and that's at the $3.39 price. Right, that's important, because the more you go up, the more you bubble. The more our overvalued data shows, the more you're going to come down generally, historically based on historic figures. Why? Because it's gone in a bubble. It's gotten way too expensive compared to wages, compared to history, compared to how many people are moving here, Right, so it's not rocket science.

Speaker 2: 13:59

Let's look at for sale inventory. So here's another interesting one. So again, this is North Carolina. If we look at it just in our western North Carolina market, this is not the case. We have just blibbed across the baseline mark of what should be available, whereas actually in North Carolina, we're about at the mark. In other words, for sale inventory, we are buyers or sellers. Market with flat that is showing the same thing, except the inventory is skyrocketing. So, for example, North Carolina two years ago, in 2022, and don't worry, I'm going to do a deep dive here and you can do this if you're listening anywhere in the country, I can do you know San Jose in California and then divide it down to zip.

Speaker 2: 14:42

So call in with your zip code and we'll do it for you. I've made a whole bunch of videos on this that I can share with you as well. So here we are. For sale inventory, North Carolina. This is how many homes are for sale in April 2022. That is 9,567. Everybody got that figure. So can we round up the figures, just to make the math easy.

Speaker 2: 15:05

So, let's make that 10,000,. Right, let's go back two years. Any idea, randy, would you say it's double. You know 2020, we're talking about the pandemic.

Speaker 2: 15:16

A lot of people were moving here. So was there a lot for sale or did people stay put? What would you think? Would that number go up or down? So 2022, we're at 10,000. That number would go down. Okay, 2020, the for sale inventory. How many homes for sale in North Carolina? 34,000. Over three times as many, wow, over three times as many, wow, yeah, wow is right, right. So 2022, two years later. This is how much figures change. Now, what does that mean? Real estate prices is all about supply and demand. It's all about the more supply there is. Then you know, are you meeting the demand?

Speaker 2: 15:52

The reason prices are staying high right now, in the main, is because the demand's kind of because of the interest rates, and here we are coming up to an election, which also can make it a little bit slow. Now the demand's a little bit higher because we're in that busy selling season. In most places in the country, however, the supply up until the last month in most places has been relatively low. You got to look at what's happening month to month. It's really, really important. Look at these figures and look at the trend.

Speaker 2: 16:28

Remember Clément Juglar, 1860, set the economic cycle seven to 11 years. What does that mean? Think of a roller coaster. We are at the top of the roller coaster right now, bumping along the top. It's like a roller coaster. As you start going down, it goes ga-dink, ga-dink, ga-dink and then it picks up speed.

Speaker 2: 16:47

So if you're a seller and you have really flattened out right now and again, I can go into that zip code and really look at that for you and look at what that means. Are you there? Are you not there? And same thing. So if you are seeing this rise in inventory right now and price cuts, I can give you all of those figures. You want to sell it now or hold on for 10 years? Clément Jouglas 7 to 11 years, right, so you want to hold it. If you can hold it, that's fantastic.

Speaker 2: 17:18

If you are buying right now, I'm not going to tell you not to buy. That's not what this is about. I want to give you figures upon which to make a more informed decision. For example, we've got people coming to Western North Carolina and in some of the zip codes you'll find a forecast that's still going up. In other words, the forecast for home prices are going up. If I were buying here, I'd probably be more likely to look at those numbers than the ones where the forecast has a big old arrow down. Now, why? Because what happens if I'm not sure, if I like the area and I want to sell in a couple of years?

Speaker 2: 17:59

Now, if you're coming in from New York and you're buying, you're like I just want to be there. I'm going to you know, I'm retiring there. So I'm going to you know, put my roots down. I'm going to stay there. This is fantastic, and I ain't selling. They're taking me out in a box.

Speaker 2: 18:09

If you're one of those people, what does it matter? Because what goes down must come up right. So here's the thing Seven to 11 years is the cycle. That means three and a half to five and a half years from now, roughly again, and a crystal ball's here. I'm working on it. We're going down in most places, not everywhere, and then three and a half to five and a half years we're going back up again. Overall, your home will go up. It might go up 10, 20, 30 percent. It might go up 100 percent. That's really what's happened in this last cycle, but it will go up. The trend is always up. It always has been. It's never gone down over that 11-year cycle. So if you're buying and staying, who cares? It's going to go up from where you're at now, even if it's at the top most likely. There's no guarantees in life except for death and taxes.

Speaker 2: 18:58

Right, that's it. And in the real estate cycle, that's why it's a more solid investment and it's the biggest investment most people make than other investments. Why? Because of the 7 to 11-year cycle. So you've got to remember that and that's why I can give you the cycles on the way up.

Speaker 2: 19:17

I couldn't do this back in 2007 because I didn't have this data. I was pulling data off the MLS every month. It was hard to see the trends and I definitely couldn't see them all over the country for zip code by zip code. Here we are in 2024. That's a little while later. Obviously, I can do it for anywhere in the country very fast. So you can call in and get that live if you'd like to 800-570-9962. Or I can do a report for you and send it out to you. And, of course, if you're listening to the podcast after the show, just give us a call 828-333-4483, 828-333-4483. We have people on standby 24-7 to take your call. If you're too shy to call in on the radio, you can also call that number now. We've got people standing by 24-7. They'll take a message and pass it on to us. Eight to eight. Three, three, three, forty four, eighty three I hope that's the number I gave before it is.

Speaker 2: 20:14

I was rapid firing numbers there dealing with a lot of numbers today. So, uh, yeah, give us a call. Eight to eight, three, three, three, forty four, eighty three people standing by. They'll take your call, take your message, just say you want the report, give us your your address and we'll do a report on your zip code, on your city and on your state for you. It'll be about five minutes long. On the video. You'll have a video. You'll be able to see all the pictures. Heck, I'll do it on Zoom with you if you'd like to.

Speaker 2: 20:40

So, if you're listening on the podcast, all of these are podcast afterwards. We've been running this show for about 12 years and you can hear all kinds of topics on there. You can go and get that one at realestatenewsradiocom. Realestatenewsradiocom. You'll see link to listen live, the podcast and everything else on there. Okay, western North Carolina.

Speaker 2: 21:01

So for sale inventory. Back in 2020, we were at 34,000 homes for sale all of North Carolina Gosh. In one year and this was during COVID we went from 34,000 to 12,000. Nearly a third, it's amazing. And then it dropped even more in 2022 to 9,500. 9,500. Do you know what we're at now? Have a guess $9,500. We were at two years ago, $40,000. We're at $25,000. Okay, which is the biggest amount we've had since 2020. Since COVID yeah, it's amazing, isn't it? It is Gosh.

Speaker 2: 21:49

Although 2017, at the bottom of the market, when prices had gone down pretty much across North Carolina, over 30% of devaluation, we had 50,000 on the market, so that dropped to 34 in 2020. It dropped to it's amazing, right A third of the homes for sale. Imagine being a buyer out there and you've got a third of the homes for sale on the market. That's why it's been such a struggle. This is only 2022. It's only in the last two years. For the last two years, buyers, you had a third of the homes on the market. No wonder, two years ago, we were seeing multiple offers. A third of the homes on the market. That is absolutely crazy, right? So the norm, by the way, is 30,000. That's kind of the average, if you like, across many, many years is 30,000. So, obviously, if you're at 9,500, you're struggling to find a house.

Speaker 2: 22:46

Supply and demand, supply and demand. That's all it's about. The demand's always there. Some people have to buy a house. They're moving in, they want to buy a house because they're getting a divorce somewhere else, or maybe they've lost a parent or somebody. You know, some people need to buy a house. It might be a smaller amount or a bigger amount, but there's always a core amount of people that need to buy a house, like there's a core amount of people that need to sell a house. Does that make sense? So we rise up two years and we're at 25,000 in April right now, may, I think we'll see that number go up even more. So we're at about at balance.

Speaker 2: 23:24

Imagine, as a buyer right, you put it, put off buying a couple of years. I just can't find anything. Prices are going up. It's really hard, you know it's gosh. I don't know what to do. Now you've got three times as many to look at. What do you think that's going to do when you're making an offer that gives supply and demand? It gives you a downward price on the prices, right? So, oh my gosh, that makes sense.

Speaker 2: 23:47

So let's go ahead. I can. I can send you that report. By the way. Again, just reach out 828-333-4483. That will get you through to our receptionists that are standing by. You can leave. You can leave a message there. You can give us your address. I'll do a full report for you. Very, very happy to do that. If you're a realtor listening, I will do the same thing, no worries at all. Very happy to do that. If you're a realtor listening, I will do the same thing, no worries at all. If you want to call into the show and have a live evasceration of your zip code whether that is prices going up or going down, or your state, or whatever you want to do that would be perfectly fine. Either way, I think we have, oh my gosh, a favorite of this station and a favorite of mine, mike Blanton, is on the phone, our amazing financial advisor. How are you doing, mike? I'm retired girl. How are you? You're like, don't have anybody call me, whatever you do, because I'm retired. Who should they call?

Speaker 1: 24:47

now.

Speaker 2: 24:47

Mike, if they need your advice, I've retired.

Speaker 4: 24:51

Who should they call now, Mike, if they need your advice? Yeah, I got something in my email. It said call you. So I was going to call you. That's pretty funny, that is fantastic.

Speaker 2: 25:01

Yeah, I sent the email on purpose to all the people on the database saying call in if you'd like me to do a deep dive on your, because it's really fascinating looking at. You know areas around? These are all states in the USA. Right now it's being broadened so that we can get everybody, but we can see state by state where it's going up, state by state where it's going down, and then do a deep dive all the way down to zip code, which is pretty amazing.

Speaker 4: 25:25

I saw that that's pretty cool. That's very helpful information actually.

Speaker 2: 25:28

I saw that. That's pretty cool. That's very helpful information actually. Yeah, and in North Carolina, of course, I can go county by county, zip code by zip code, town by town. But here's the thing as you know, mike, valuations aren't about, for example, asheville, it's all the little neighborhoods within Asheville. There are neighborhoods within Asheville that are, on average, worth half, you know. Let's say, our average price point in 28801 in Asheville is $600,000. In 28801,.

Speaker 2: 25:55

I can find an average. Oh yeah, I know it's crazy, I can find an average of 300 in a different neighborhood. So it's, you know, it's literally so, when you give these figures, that all we had somebody very famous I won't call her out on today, not on today on fox news this week who said home and you can look it up on youtube home prices are going to skyrocket around the usa. I, I don't like people saying things like that because, first of all, you can never guarantee anything, both in the investment world that Mike is obviously very well grounded in he was able to retire in a very nice way, so he must have done well for all of his clients, because that's how he did well and you can't say prices are going to skyrocket and go up or the market's going to crash across the USA, because that simply ain't the truth. It's just.

Speaker 2: 26:47

I feel. I feel very disingenuous, because if you're buying a house, you should do it based on facts. If you're selling a house, you should do it based on facts, and it's called the economic cycle, and in some places it hurts more and in some places it helps more. So all you need are the facts on which to base a decision. How's that work with investing Mike? Same thing right.

Speaker 4: 27:12

Yeah, you have to know what you're doing, and my philosophy when it came to real estate was you make money when you buy it, not when you sell it. Yes, you're exactly right, that's a hard concept for people to get, because buying real estate can be a very emotional decision.

Speaker 1: 27:33

yeah, I'm selling it, but you've got.

Speaker 4: 27:35

You've got to go shopping when you have control and I know be. I've been in ashville area for since 69, uh and um, you know, I I remember when we could buy real estate on what's that road that goes by the Grove Park Inn down there?

Speaker 2: 27:57

Oh yes, so for those of you who are listening around the country, he's talking about a historic area of Asheville where we can't say old money these days, so we won't say that. But it's where the Country Club is. It's where the Grove Park Inn is, which is just a beautiful hotel Kimberly.

Speaker 3: 28:17

yeah, yeah.

Speaker 2: 28:17

Kimberly top three spas in the country, just a beautiful area.

Speaker 4: 28:22

I remember, you know, when you'd buy, driving down that road and looking at some of the houses on there and they were going for $300,000.

Speaker 3: 28:31

I'm going, man. How in the world can anyone?

Speaker 4: 28:35

afford that. But I came up with a comment about Asheville Getting in is tough, the water's what you get. Getting in is the hard part. Hanging around is where you're going to make some money. So typically you know I've been through ups and downs in Asheville and all around and you know that's been a pretty much winning formula. But you've got to be patient and find a good real estate agent like Miss Rowena Patton.

Speaker 2: 29:02

Oh well, thank you, mike. I'd like to say find a great investment advisor if you hadn't only retired at 36.

Speaker 4: 29:08

I'm done, baby, I'm done, baby, I'm done. I want to know what the property is going to happen in Grand Bahama. Can you tell me what that's going to?

Speaker 2: 29:12

do? I wish I could, and that's coming very soon and actually. I have some very good friends who can tell you, that's for sure.

Speaker 1: 29:19

You want to hear these.

Speaker 2: 29:20

Ashford when those mic because these are going to blow your mind Because you haven't been over. So if we look right now in 28801, the average home value is 500. I'm going to round these figures just to make it easier $580,000.

Speaker 4: 29:42

You know my kids, they're kind of getting. They're now getting in the 30s and you know early, late 30s and they want to buy a house and they're just screaming at the prices. It said getting in is tough, but once you're in the waters and you know early, late 30s and they want to buy a house and they're just screaming at the prices, they said getting in is tough but once you're in the water is fine. Yeah, well, that's true, but but here's so if you want to.

Speaker 2: 29:58

So what happens when prices go up in an area? The area grows very rapidly, which is what everybody is is, uh, peeing and moaning about. See, randy, I was good moaning about right here now. So so what happens in any metro area? Do you know, mike, when housing prices become very, very steep, what would you expect?

Speaker 2: 30:17

Somebody who lives in downtown Asheville, for example, you know, maybe, maybe they're a first-time homebuyers that bought the house three years ago and the average home price in in 2880 oh, let's go to 28804, where you were just talking about $628,000. So they bought there five years ago or seven years ago when it was much, much, much less expensive. I could tell you why if I dipped in here but I'm not going to and now they've got a house, the average home value there is $628,000. What would you do if you bought it seven years ago and you could move out, for example, to, let's find one here. You could move out to 28753. So you've got Mars Hill. It's just to the left of Mars Hill, if that helps anybody. College Town. We're only talking about 30 minutes, not even 20 minutes on the edge of there. Can you have a guess what the average prone price is there. So we've gone from 580 630 so we go 20 minutes north. Actually, 28804 is north, so 15 to 20 minutes down the road. The home value is $349,000. So what do?

Speaker 1: 31:29

you think will happen. I was going to say $349,000.

Speaker 2: 31:32

Yeah, so what do you think will happen? It's natural right. 28743, if we go to the zip to the left of that, $320,000 is the average value. It's also well. Here's the problem, though. It's in the blue zone, which means it's more likely to decrease. But how much can you decrease in western north carolina when you're only at 320? It's going to be a small decrease, right?

Speaker 4: 31:56

so, yeah, I mean we went through a decrease at one point in time, but I think it was, I can't remember. Now it's 2008, something like that. It kind of got a little funky and hard to sell.

Speaker 2: 32:05

33.

Speaker 4: 32:07

We had a drop here yeah, but you know, typically that's why you make money when you buy, not when you sell. So if you run in there now going, oh, I'm going to buy, it's up there, the price is up there, but you're looking for a deal, you're looking for somebody who can't really afford what they actually have now or somebody who is anxious to move on. And the biggest problem, I think, here in actual area of western carolina is that people from new york, people from california, people from all over the place are finding out dude, I, I, I live in a apartment that paid a million dollars for, so they walk around there, go, oh, this is, oh, this is pretty good this is pretty good.

Speaker 4: 32:52

So that's really kind of what's driving the real estate up in Asheville, I think. But it was a beautiful place. It's a great place to live.

Speaker 2: 33:05

So when you really do a deep dive on here, let's look at Mills River is always an interesting one.

Speaker 4: 33:10

Two houses.

Speaker 2: 33:11

Yeah yeah, mills River has become, has become you probably know this has gone through the roof, right. So mills river, when you're talking about 28759 mills river, then we've got a recent appreciation score of 56. 50 is the median. In other words, we've got a home price forecast of 51. That's about balance. That's again we're bumping along the bottom. So we're flat right. Why? Because, oh my gosh, we've seen such a bubble there in terms of you know where, the, where the prices have gone, because they've gone through the roof.

Speaker 2: 33:42

Um days on market, we're looking at two months. So we, two years ago, you'd put a house on the market if it was in tip-top condition and you'd have six offers in three days. That is not the case now. So if you're building a new home, or if you're going into assisted living, or if you're moving out of state somewhere because you want to both be by the grandkids, or any of all those other reasons, if you're getting a divorce and you need to sell your house, be careful, it takes two months. That means when I come out to your house this week, we're at the end of May. We're going to. You know, this is the busy selling season. Don't let it go, especially as we have an election this year. Don't let it go into the fall and then the winter, especially when we're flat at the top, which makes it very likely, given the economic cycle flat at the top we have been for a year and a half it's going to start bumping down at some point and I can tell you zip by zip where that's going to happen. So back looking at Mills River, again two months on the market, guys. Two months. So that means if we put you on in June, july, august, now that's if you're a great looking house, that means you're going to move out in september and um, not even because I've got to get you on the market right. So give me a few days for that, please. I mean, I'm full of energy, but just give me a few days. Get me out as quickly as you can. 828-333-4483 rowena patton. All-star powers broken by exp. Get me out to take a look.

Speaker 2: 35:06

It doesn't matter if you have things to do on the house. If you have things to do on the house. If you have things to do on the house, it's likely to take you longer than two months. Remember that these figures that we're quoting two months to sell on average, and that's on average. These are figures, guys, I don't make these up right and these are figures as of two, three weeks ago. They're always lagging figures. That means if we're on a downtrend, it's probably gone. Is the the figures for days on market? It's probably gone up? Right, but just work on two months. If anything needs doing. It's going to take you longer to prep. And not only that, if you don't do it and we just say, hey, we're going to give you a credit for ten thousand dollars. There's lots of ways we can work that. Don't worry about that. You know we can get your credit in place for that. Then it's going to be September before you move. I don't think people realize how long it takes Now that's a great house.

Speaker 4: 35:57

Having a vision for what you want to accomplish long before you get there is important, especially with real estate.

Speaker 2: 36:03

Yes.

Speaker 4: 36:04

Because if I have a home and I have a price that I want for it, I don't want to be put in a position that I'm in a hurry to sell, that I have to sell. I approach real estate with the fact that, okay, I like this house but I'm looking for a change. So you know, I don't care if I sell it now or you know, six, eight months from now. You can always go down. But going up is really tough in that side of it. But with some vision and some planning you can say well, I know jobs can throw things into you that make you kind of jammed up and need to do something quickly, but just try and plan out and think ahead.

Speaker 2: 36:44

I mean, call Rowena when you're desperate, but call them when you've got some planning going on too, thank you, and you're speaking as a long-term in this area, one of the top financial advisors in the area. You used to look after my investments for me, and there are investments that are liquid and not liquid. When you put real estate in your portfolio of looking at your investments, that is not a liquid investment, guys. So two months is really great. Quite honestly, you want to really think about three or four months to sell your house if it's not a stellar house.

Speaker 2: 37:20

You know. In other words, it's not new. You haven't done a full remodel. The yard could take a little bit of work. Maybe you've got a kitchen from the 90s. Maybe you've got different floors. Maybe the dog's done some scratches. Maybe there's some marks on the walls. By the way, I'm describing the average house, so don't be embarrassed about that. You know I I visited somebody in the last few weeks who bought a house some years ago. The dogs had peed all over the basement and they had to take all of the carpet up and everything else that you know. There's plenty of houses that look like that, where you can actually make a little bit of money.

Speaker 2: 37:53

Most often you've got to look at these numbers. This is what mike did for a living, so I can delve into 28801. For example, it has a home price forecast of 40, in other words, below, below the baseline. It's already crested, guys. Uh, recent appreciation, but get this. So the forecast is down. Recent appreciation is up. Why? Because of the lack of inventory. However, the number for that is up. It's 59, right, so we're above that baseline. It's going through the roof in terms of numbers that are available on the market.

Speaker 2: 38:29

We don't have time today because we've only got the hour, but I can go in in depth of what that means, right, I can give you median age. I can give you poverty rate If you're an investor. I've got all kinds of demographics on there. It's really remarkable. I can give you price cuts. So let's go price cuts on there. So if we look at 28801, and it such a tiny, tiny little market in 28801 we are at, uh, I just clicked on the wrong button there. It's really great when I can click on the right one. Uh, remarkably up 25 increase over there, right? So you want to look at those figures. It's so important. Data, data, data, data, data, and I can make sense of all of that data for you. So, price cuts let's do price cuts and get you the actual figure 2,8801. Price cuts we are looking at 27% price cuts.

Speaker 2: 39:27

Listings with price cut are 16 out of the 61. That is crazy. We haven't seen that in a very long time. 16 out of 61. So not quite a third, but so okay. So if we're everybody says so I want you to listen when now it depends it's zip code to zip code and give you all of these. In fact, why don't we go over to the left. 28806, west Asheville. We have 24 listings out of 155. That doesn't sound many right? 15% of listings in West Asheville, which is one of the hottest markets, if not the hottest market, in Western North Carolina, 15% have price cuts. What does that tell you, mike, in terms of supply and demand?

Speaker 4: 40:12

Well, it tells you that people are, you know, they're getting anxious to get out.

Speaker 2: 40:16

Uh-huh. So that's great for buyers, right? But if you're a seller?

Speaker 4: 40:21

You're looking for that You're looking for. You know, to have saved money, to have accumulated some wealth in your life, is extremely important because it gives you the power in all these decisions. Most people they don't really have any backing at all and what they do is have an IRA or something where, of course, sam's going to get his fingers in the whole thing. But having capital where you're not in a hurry you know, I don't care Like this is probably not material, but it is in a way. We came to the Bahamas. We were looking for somewhere to offshore.

Speaker 2: 41:04

Yeah.

Speaker 4: 41:04

We came here, looked at a house. They were asking a crazy amount of money. And we went to the house, looked at the house they were asking a crazy amount of money, um, and I we went to the house, looked at the house. Whatever. What year is this, mike?

Speaker 4: 41:18

this is three years ago, 2022 yeah, okay yeah, um looked here and I told my wife. I said, said, now we're going to go buy a piece of property. Don't get your heart set on anything other than we're going to buy a piece of property. That's what you got to understand. So, anyway, we came over here, we talked to the real estate people. They don't have all the tools that you're talking about, that you have here. So we spent two weeks just looking at property, property, property. We put an offer in on this house and, uh, we're about a third, third less than they wanted. And uh, argue with them, argue with them, argue with them. And then finally I said, okay, fine, we're out of here. Wow.

Speaker 4: 42:04

So, we literally got on a plane and flew to Roatan, Honduras, looking for another place on the water. We found a place down there. We really were interested in buying, but while we were down there, the people here called us and said we'll take your offer.

Speaker 2: 42:22

Okay, we're going to do a whole show on this, mike, and I want to get you back on, because there are a lot of people thinking about retiring in other places and that's the next business of mine, so we're going to do a whole other show on that, because this is exactly and this is what's going to happen here, but I want you to stay with me. Can you stay with me for another couple of minutes?

Speaker 3: 42:42

Yeah, sure.

Speaker 2: 42:43

He ain't doing nothing. He ain't doing nothing, exactly right, I'm going to do a rapid fire of price cuts. So price cuts are one of the key indicators that we look at. We're early in the season here, right, like in many parts of the country, the spring season is where you see more listings start to come on the market to figure it out, by the way, folks don't make any sense, but we are where we're at and we're in May. Now. We're actually obviously through the spring season and it's summer already.

Speaker 2: 43:13

Remember, I've been, you know otherwise detained for a while, and no, not in prison, so sort of lost a month, but we're in the summer season. So this is high season for selling. Do you think in a high season, people would be cutting prices if we were getting multiple offers and things were flying off the shelf? We know the answer to that. No, it's all about supply and demand. And let's have a look here. So you know what? If the demand were high in other words, because the inventory is low, if the demand is high sellers would not be cutting their prices. Sellers would not be cutting their prices. So if you're selling in these areas or you are buying in these areas, I want you to listen as I very quickly go through these figures. You can always go back to realestatenewsradiocom, click on the podcast and pause the podcast, because I'll see that you're listening live and you're going.

Speaker 2: 44:03

Yeah, what did she say for that zip code? Here we go. So we are looking at 28743. That is Hot Springs. We have hardly any with a price cut, but there's only 11 in the inventory 11%. When we look at Marshall 11% price cuts. Mars Hill 13%. If we're looking at 28709, that is to the right of Mars Hill, so the other part of Mars Hill, actually 13.5%. So no figures that are going to blow your mind right now.

Speaker 2: 44:33

Oh wait, let's go north of Woodfin 28787. 28787. Very, very close to Asheville right now 25.6%. A quarter of listings have had a price cut. Let's find some other ones where it's really going on down here.

Speaker 2: 44:50

So Asheville 28748,. We're looking at North Asheville here 21.2%. One in five homes has had a price cut. I suggest I mean, obviously I need to look at your house, but if you've got your house listed and one in five have had a price cut, you might want to look at that for a second. Let's go over to Clyde and north of Clyde 28.5%. As we go further out you'll see more price cuts. Nearly 30% guys have had price cuts in one of the busiest selling months of the year. That's important. Let's go Asheville 28748. So north Asheville, very popular area 21.2% One in five guys have had a price cut. That's important.

Speaker 2: 45:34

28806, west Asheville that drops to 15.4% In one of the hottest markets, if not the hottest sales market in Asheville 15.4%, that's kind of important. 28801, downtown point four percent. That's kind of important. Two, eight, eight, oh one. Downtown Twenty six point one in four has had a price cut.

Speaker 2: 45:52

Listen to these numbers. It might be if you want to get out and if you want to hold on to your house for seven to ten years and you don't really care about selling, go for it. It doesn't matter. Get aggressive now. I want you to remember that I said this in May of twenty twenty four. Get aggressive with your pricing now, get. Want you to remember that I said this in May of 2024. Get aggressive with your pricing now. Get aggressive with your marketing now.

Speaker 2: 46:13

If you haven't listed yet, call me, let me come in and I'll show you what to do, what not to do. Of course, we have the full market value cash offer as well. If you've just expired because it didn't sell there's a lot of those going on as well we will give you a full market value, cash offer, most likely at your expired price. If you're a for sale by owner, same thing. Two thirds of our sellers get more with no showings or anything else. I want you to listen.

Speaker 2: 46:38

Black Mountain. Wait, this is Swannanoa. Swannanoa calling Swannanoa. 38, thirty eight percent price cuts, guys, that's a problem. So if you're in the Swannanoa-Otine area, in other words east of Asheville for those of you listening don't know what the heck I'm talking about, asheville those of you really don't know what I'm talking about.

Speaker 2: 47:18

No-transcript, but that's an important one. A price cut, guys, is a leading indicator of prices going down. Why? Because you see price cuts before the prices go down. Let's do a few more for you. Black Mountain used to be the highest dollar per square foot in Buncombe County 23%. That is a high figure, guys. There's nearly one in four are cutting their prices.

Speaker 2: 47:43

32%, 28730. 28730. Are you listening? 28730. That's to the right of Biltmore Forest. It's flat top, fair view. 28730. 32% Biltmore Forest. Biltmore Forest we can't say Albany these days, so we ain't going to say that 28803,. Biltmore Forest stretches all the way down. 19.3% have price cuts. Hello, 28806, biltmore Forest stretches all the way down. 19.3% have price cuts. Hello, 28806, west Asheville 15.4. I think we did that one already. 287.15. We're looking in Candler now 28%. It's over. One in four have got price cuts. That is insane. So I want to look at the 38 point. Where are we looking at there? 28788. We're looking at, you know, everything east of Asheville. So let's do days on market. Let's see if we can find some correlation. Shocker We've gone from 31 last year to 47. The days on market are going up. That means we're switching guys. Days on market growth, inventory as percentage of houses I can do all kinds of things on here. That sadly, as usual, is 10.54, nearly 10.55. And we've got three minutes left. What sense do you make out of those price drops, mike?

Speaker 4: 49:06

If you want to buy something in Asheville and you live in New York and you're sick and tired of that, or you live in California and you're sick and tired of that, now's a good time.

Speaker 2: 49:15

Yeah, it really is. So you know, I'd also encourage people. So people come here about 60, 70, 80 percent, depending on the month, of people looking on our database We've got I looked this morning 72,000 people have signed up on our database. If you're selling a house, you probably want to access our database of 72,000 buyers. Now, are all these looking right now? I wish, because we'd wipe out all the inventory in the Western North Carolina area. Of course not, but these are people that over time have been looking at buying a house in the area, including many of the current buyers that we have. So I'd encourage you, if you're coming from New York, not to look at just Asheville, not to look at just downtown Asheville, because that's all you know. You've heard about Asheville, asheville gets all of the headlines popularity.

Speaker 2: 50:05

We know all about Asheville, explore all the sounding.

Speaker 4: 50:08

You've got LeVard, you've got Hendersonville, you've got LeVard, you've got all kinds of neat places around here. And I actually live in Hendersonville and have for probably 15, 20 years now.

Speaker 2: 50:18

Yeah, well, your heat map I've got to tell you on Hendersonville ain't looking so great either. But what I can tell you is the areas around Hendersonville, so you can be 10, 15 minutes away from downtown Hendersonville. Get creative. If you're not one of the people that has millions of dollars and you know more money than you need, worry about, because if you have that, live where you want and if you're holding it for 10 years, who cares? It's going to go up anyway.

Speaker 2: 50:43

However, you know, if you're struggling, if you're working your purse strings and you're on a tight budget, go 10 minutes out and we'll tell you where all those towns and cities are. Any great agent will be able to tell you that we can do it all over the country and give you that score. Is the score going to be absolutely accurate every single time? No, because we're not. We are magic makers, but we don't have a crystal ball. That's going to be, you know, 99 accurate, but these are going to be a very, very good forecast score. Just go 10 minutes out, go 15 minutes out, and most often not always, but again I can show you the actual bat for that, just like mike did when he was looking after your investments, for I mean he started when he was 22 and he finished and retired four years later because he did so well and helped people he did all four years of it, I lost zero on that one.

Speaker 2: 51:36

Yeah, really, but if you want, like you know, mike's saying, hendersonville, which is how should we say a bit more laid back of an area A lot of people have moved to Hendersonville Super, super popular. Now Mills River is going through the roof. They're building thousands of units in Mills River. You wouldn't even recognize it, mike. You know, if you move 10 minutes out from Mills River now, or 10 minutes out from Hendersonville, there's a lot of areas like Mills River that haven't popped yet.

Speaker 4: 52:02

That's where you want to buy I saw something from 26 there that was like blew my mind. There's a lot of apartment buildings and all kinds of stuff going on over there Is it thousands of units.

Speaker 2: 52:13

So houses for sale, houses for you know, apartments and units for rent.

Speaker 3: 52:18

Taproot, taproot, taproot. Yeah, it's called Taproot. Yeah Well, there's lots of them.

Speaker 2: 52:27

There's four developments within a five minute drive down 26. There's also, if you drive down 26, our famous interstate here. If you look off I-26, you'll see all these developments right on the highway.

Speaker 3: 52:37

Yeah, it's causing school administrators to reposition, reschedule kids in different schools.

Speaker 2: 52:44

Yeah, we're a whole area that's really blowing up. However, there are areas that are still in the blue zone. The blue zone is you know what are our scores in terms of? You know the home price forecast. What about affordability? That's kind of important, right, and you can be literally 15 minutes drive to downtown anywhere and be in a more affordable area. That's the important thing. And your price is less likely to go down if you're buying. It's less likely to go down if you're selling as well, so you can hold on to it a little bit longer. If you're in the hot zones, get out now or hold it for 10 years, or really think twice about buying there. I'll end on that. Thank you so much to Mike for being with us today, off the hoof. We'll see you on the radio next week.

Speaker 1: 53:32

This has been the Plain English Real Estate Show with Rowena Patton. Visit Rowena and post your questions at radioashvillecom or call her at 828-210-1648.